ATL: GRACE - Models

[hurricane2025]

Cmc is never right

Neither is any model past 48hrs.

That is so not true

[SouthFLTropics]

And the HWRF just went wacko and dived Sw under PR.


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[gatorcane]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021081412/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.png

For those harping on the GFS ensembles, they sure perked up on this run.

Yes they have, loop below, some stronger ones into South Florida:

[IcyTundra]

Not liking the models trending towards this possibly getting into the GOM. If it does I can see this thing blowing up and where it goes from there would all depend on how strong the ridge is.

[gatorcane]

Upper-level winds look to become favorable near Florida and especially if she can make it into the GOM. Could be a Gulf problem for somebody:

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF with a big SW shift:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF is looking pretty whack IMHO.

[Shell Mound]

12Z HWRF with a big SW shift:

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv65VgfM/hwrf-ref-07-L-19.png

Between tomorrow and Tuesday the 12Z HWRF depicts Grace’s assuming a constant westward heading that leads to landfall on the Tiburón Peninsula. Hmm...

[toad strangler]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

[tolakram]

I see the GFS has backed off the idea that superstorm Fred (sarcasm) will be imparting a ton of shear in the Bahamas. Not set in stone yet, of course, but it seems the biggest remaining question is track near or across the islands.

[eastcoastFL]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

https://i.ibb.co/TgJRD2V/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-22.png

A few models showing a Katrina type track for this with a potential for something big in the gulf. I hope the gulf states are prepared. I don’t think she will be much of an issue for us in Florida.

[Shell Mound]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

https://i.ibb.co/TgJRD2V/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-22.png

Of the six members that show landfall on South Florida, four indicate a MSLP ranging between 973–986 mb, suggesting MSW between 70–80 kt at landfall.

[toad strangler]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

https://i.ibb.co/TgJRD2V/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-22.png

A few models showing a Katrina type track for this with a potential for something big in the gulf. I hope the gulf states are prepared. I don’t think she will be much of an issue for us in Florida.

Katrina formed just off the FL coast. Nothing like Katrina.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

https://i.ibb.co/TgJRD2V/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-22.png

A few models showing a Katrina type track for this with a potential for something big in the gulf. I hope the gulf states are prepared. I don’t think she will be much of an issue for us in Florida.

Rita too

[toad strangler]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

https://i.ibb.co/TgJRD2V/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-22.png

Of the six members that show landfall on South Florida, four indicate a MSLP ranging between 973–986 mb, suggesting MSW between 70–80 kt at landfall.

I don't really care to dissect each noodle at this range but to observe the overall signal. Intensity, as we all know, is a wildcard with island interaction for sure but even without it.

[Blinhart]

These models are starting to give me some Andrew and Lilly vibes.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro about ready to roll…

[eastcoastFL]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

https://i.ibb.co/TgJRD2V/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-22.png

A few models showing a Katrina type track for this with a potential for something big in the gulf. I hope the gulf states are prepared. I don’t think she will be much of an issue for us in Florida.

Katrina formed just off the FL coast. Nothing like Katrina.

I’m just referring to how it came clipped extreme south Florida as fairly weak storm and blew up as it headed through the gulf. It looks like a similar scenario could play out here.

[eastcoastFL]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

https://i.ibb.co/TgJRD2V/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-22.png

A few models showing a Katrina type track for this with a potential for something big in the gulf. I hope the gulf states are prepared. I don’t think she will be much of an issue for us in Florida.

Rita too

Ya probably more like Rita since GFS is bringing it into Texas as a major right now.

[sma10]

This is a strong signal for a S FL hit from the East. One run doesn't make a trend but it's intriguing that multiple 12z models show something similar. 12z Euro should be interesting. BUT THAT TRACK .... which I'm ABSOLUTELY SURE will change and more than a few times N and or S is worrisome for the FL peninsula and points W in the GOM. And OF COURSE PR and Hispaniola ...

https://i.ibb.co/TgJRD2V/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-22.png

Of the six members that show landfall on South Florida, four indicate a MSLP ranging between 973–986 mb, suggesting MSW between 70–80 kt at landfall.

I don't really care to dissect each noodle at this range but to observe the overall signal. Intensity, as we all know, is a wildcard with island interaction for sure but even without it.

Moreover, the global models (and their ensembles) shouldn't really be used verbatim wrt intensity. That isn't their main skill set.

The takeaway of a cluster of 973-986 mb members is simply indicative of quite favorable conditions