ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Def not a very well stacked system. Not so sure I trust those shear maps.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428777784667787266




I think Henri is going to be much weaker at landfall and impact New England farther east than most people expect. VWS is too strong for a hurricane over the GS.

[Woofde]

Def not a very well stacked system. Not so sure I trust those shear maps.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428777784667787266




I think Henri is going to be much weaker at landfall and impact New England farther east than most people expect. VWS is too strong for a hurricane over the GS.

It's moderate right now, but almost all modeling shows it continuing to drop. As we saw and are seeing with Grace it doesn't take long once a system reaches ideal conditions to really intensify. It's not really a question of if shear will abate, its when it will.

[Shell Mound]

Def not a very well stacked system. Not so sure I trust those shear maps.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428777784667787266

I think Henri is going to be much weaker at landfall and impact New England farther east than most people expect. VWS is too strong for a hurricane over the GS.

It's moderate right now, but almost all modeling shows it continuing to drop. As we saw and are seeing with Grace it doesn't take long once a system reaches ideal conditions to really intensify. It's not really a question of if shear will abate, its when it will.

Based on current trends, I would expect LF no farther west than Narragansett Bay as a low-end to moderate, sprawling TS. Inland flooding might be the main threat.

[kronotsky]

It seems very premature to me to predict anything based on the current vertical structure of the storm, given that shear has only just abated, a center relocation is possible, and Henri has at least two days of low-shear, warm-water conditions in front of it. How is the current storm behavior incompatible with, say, the NHC's forecast, or the model guidance?

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT23 KNES 201748
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HENRI)

B. 20/1731Z

C. 30.8N

D. 73.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS AN LLCC THAT IS 1/3 INTO THE COLD OVERCAST
RESULTING IN A SHEAR PATTERN DT OF 3.5. THE 1645Z GMI 89 GHZ MW PASS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
PRIMARILY OCCURRING IN THE SSE QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE 24 HR TREND IS
STEADY. MET AND PT ARE 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428777784667787266

I think Henri is going to be much weaker at landfall and impact New England farther east than most people expect. VWS is too strong for a hurricane over the GS.

It's moderate right now, but almost all modeling shows it continuing to drop. As we saw and are seeing with Grace it doesn't take long once a system reaches ideal conditions to really intensify. It's not really a question of if shear will abate, its when it will.

Based on current trends, I would expect LF no farther west than Narragansett Bay as a low-end to moderate, sprawling TS. Inland flooding might be the main threat.

We'll see. I think inland flooding is the primary threat regardless of strength, but I also think it's premature since we still don't know if Henri will take advantage of a much lower shear environment or not. With the speed that Henri is expected to move and the cold waters offshore there's very little chance of hurricane force winds making it onshore UNLESS Henri gets a lot stronger than projected.

[TallyTracker]

I do expect hurricane force winds at the top of high-rise buildings in the big cities. Even if Henri ends up being a TS at landfall. Wouldn’t want to be in the top of a skyscraper with hurricane winds blasting away.

[jlauderdal]

I do expect hurricane force winds at the top of high-rise buildings in the big cities. Even if Henri ends up being a TS at landfall. Wouldn’t want to be in the top of a skyscraper with hurricane winds blasting away.

Low end hurricane 300 ft off the deck, giddy up.

[tolakram]

I do expect hurricane force winds at the top of high-rise buildings in the big cities. Even if Henri ends up being a TS at landfall. Wouldn’t want to be in the top of a skyscraper with hurricane winds blasting away.

No doubt, but I don't think it's a new problem for taller building, especially considering some big nor-easters have moved through that area. More concerning to me is storm surge and any surface winds that many structures might not handle very well. Without active thunderstorms the winds won't mix down very well, but surge and rainfall are going to be a big deal.

[AtlanticWind]

I have seen many storms strenghen over the Gulf stream pretty rapidly, with the forecast lower shear
I would not be at all surprised if Henri is even stronger than forecast.

The question is how fast it will weaken when it hits the cooler waters.

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/LudN6M6Mmao[/youtube] 2:18 for Henri

[aspen]

I have a feeling this could surprise us tomorrow. Shear is lessening, and the flow will change from northerly winds to southerly winds, aligning with the storm’s motion. This could help the vortexes stack again by pushing the MLC up to the LLC, and with Gulf Stream waters being as warm as they are (up to 30C even past 35N), Henri could try a significant phase of intensification before SSTs quickly fall to <25C later in the day and on Sunday.

I go back to college on Thursday. Hopefully Henri isn’t bad enough to cause both in-person and virtual classes to be canceled. I also hope my luck holds with not losing power; I was pretty lucky during Isaias despite winds reaching 50-60 kt.

[tolakram]

GFS predicted rainfall. Depends on actual track and this is just one of the predictions.

[CrazyC83]

Henri is already at 73.9W, which means that if it doesn't turn due north like now (and pick up some easterly component), it will most likely go into Long Island or even New Jersey. It's almost due south of NYC right now.

I'd be considering a TS Warning for the Outer Banks and for the Jersey Shore, just on peripheral effects, as it would be less than 60 miles away.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like 20 knots of shear. wow...If it was even slightly stronger this thing would be naked!

[psyclone]

Shear has been relentless with Henri. We clearly have a lot to learn with these systems. The 5 pm advisory should be interesting. Not tough to envision ts warnings going out in that hurricane watch area as a compromise rather that going straight to hurricane warnings.

[tolakram]

Not sure if this is upper shear, or just a reorganization. Outflow on the western side looks ok.

[tolakram]

saved WV loop

[aspen]

Really ugly right now, but I remember there have been a lot of HWRF runs from the last two days that don’t get this going until late tonight or tomorrow. I’m not letting my guard down about this one.

[AlphaToOmega]

Local information for AL082021

https://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

https://www.weather.gov/box/tropical