ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

It is important to note that Tropical Storm Elsa is one heck of a fighter. If conditions are even slightly more favorable, it could mean very powerful hurricane headed towards Florida.

[toad strangler]

FL E Coast should see some squalls from the looks of how sheard this system is.

Na… radar is bone dry. A non-event honestly. cloudy with a nice breeze.

You want to re-think that a bit? Looks like a couple stiff lines could swing through. Tornado watches up.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

New intensity advisory has a hurricane landfall: 65 knots

[ThetaE]

I think it's pretty clear that those winds aloft aren't making it to the surface. Coastal obs not far away are only 20 kts. Naples reporting SE at 5 kts.

I agree with this and with how the SFMR readings seem a bit zealous (waters are relatively shallow off the west coast of Florida). These flight-level winds may be relatively recently generated, and thus not yet mixing to the surface. If the convection we've seen this morning can sustain for a few more hours (a nontrivial ask), I could see some of these stronger winds making it towards the surface before landfall.

[artist]

Storm Surge Warning
STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

FLZ162-062300-
/O.CON.KTBW.SS.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021
Coastal Charlotte-

...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Port Charlotte
- Punta Gorda
- Charlotte harbor

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: through Thursday evening

[cycloneye]

Forecast to become a Hurricane

12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

[mcheer23]

New intensity advisory has a hurricane landfall: 65 knots

Think it may make it to 70 knots

[Fancy1001]

I got to ask this again, What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying during its approach

[Michele B]

If the shear lets up...even a little, this is going to be a hurricane. The shear is the main limiting factor.

Hubs just said, 'Hope she doesn't see the Peace River, like Charley did!
'

Not funny

[Nuno]

I got to ask this again, What are the chances of Elsa rapidly intensifying during its approach

Always assume a non-zero chance with any intensifying storm. No one here will or can give you figures for this kind of thing.

[jlauderdal]

FL E Coast should see some squalls from the looks of how sheard this system is.

Na… radar is bone dry. A non-event honestly. cloudy with a nice breeze.

You want to re-think that a bit? Looks like a couple stiff lines could swing through. Tornado watches up.

The very rare tornado watch for south florida, couple of times a year, maybe. Elsa is overachieving this afternoon.

[AlphaToOmega]

Recent observations from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Elsa are now near 60 kt. However, the aircraft
has not yet had a chance to sample the northeastern quadrant, so it
is possible that higher winds exist. Although the environment is
not conducive for significant strengthening before landfall, only a
slight increase in intensity would result in Elsa becoming a
hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.

This might be a hurricane already.

[Nimbus]

I think it's pretty clear that those winds aloft aren't making it to the surface. Coastal obs not far away are only 20 kts. Naples reporting SE at 5 kts.

Hoping your downplaying of the storm is right. The good news is that if you're wrong I won't have power to come on here and tell you so.

Peak winds for Clearwater won't occur till tomorrow possibly in the wee hours of the morning.
The Sand Key winds some distance to the east of center were recorded high up on a tower facing the open ocean. Power starts going out with 45 mph winds and they take down the whole grid when enough transformers have tripped. If you have any structures to your southeast they will likely divert the peak winds but that won't help with the power issue.

[Jevo]

Majority of the peninsula now under a tornado watch (including SE FL)

It goes around me in Brevard…

Yeah, I have no idea why we are under a Tornado Watch in North Broward... its a gorgeous breezy day outside. I even have the windows open to let it flow through.

[Cat5James]

Majority of the peninsula now under a tornado watch (including SE FL)

It goes around me in Brevard…

Yeah, I have no idea why we are under a Tornado Watch in North Broward... its a gorgeous breezy day outside. I even have the windows open to let it flow through.

Squalls are on the way. give it 30 mins- hour ( I am also in N Broward)

[AutoPenalti]

Adrian is right, Tornado watches are up but it's been dry. No rain at all. The sun even peaks out at times.

[artist]

Majority of the peninsula now under a tornado watch (including SE FL)

It goes around me in Brevard…

Yeah, I have no idea why we are under a Tornado Watch in North Broward... its a gorgeous breezy day outside. I even have the windows open to let it flow through.

That’s gonna change soon

[Nuno]

What time do we estimate Elsa will closest approach Pinellas?

[chaser1]

Majority of the peninsula now under a tornado watch (including SE FL)

It goes around me in Brevard…

Yeah, I have no idea why we are under a Tornado Watch in North Broward... its a gorgeous breezy day outside. I even have the windows open to let it flow through.

Expect "gorgeous" to change lol

[StormPyrate]

Hurricane center just updated at 2 expecting it to become cat 1