CPAC: JIMENA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS has no binary interaction:

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
persistent shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly to the
southeast of the center. Upper-level winds are expected to become
more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the
system moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 291326
TCSENP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 13.7N

D. 122.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR REMARKS BASED ON 1016 AMSR2 89 GHZ MW
PASS. SYSTEM HAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION AND HAS LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AROUND AN LLCC THAT IS GREATER THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM THE ACTIVE
LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A SHEAR PATTERN DT OF 1.5. THE 24 HR
DEVELOPMENT TREND IS STEADY RESULTING MET TO BE 2.0 AND PT TO BE 1.5. FT
IS BASED ON PT DUE CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992021 07/29/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 33 37 41 46 48 51 55 59 60 62 62 59
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 33 37 41 46 48 51 55 59 60 62 62 59
V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 26 27 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 64 69 68
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 19 17 17 9 6 7 13 11 16 14 13 12 12 10 10 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -5 -6 -5 -4 -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 1
SHEAR DIR 295 295 305 322 343 99 108 110 89 67 45 59 43 57 57 36 26
SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 134 133 135 140 138 140 142 142 142 143 142 142 140 137
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 66 66 69 70 69 67 61 59 55 59 60 59 56 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 12 13 14 16 17 15
850 MB ENV VOR -22 -22 -17 -9 -6 11 23 27 39 35 35 35 35 36 36 39 31
200 MB DIV 4 23 29 41 32 38 11 -18 -12 32 76 74 44 40 36 53 30
700-850 TADV -1 -5 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 1619 1690 1756 1817 1878 1987 2128 2288 2451 2538 2383 2235 2122 2029 1966 1892 1824
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.4 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.6 11.8 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 122.3 123.2 124.0 124.7 125.3 126.4 127.7 129.3 130.9 132.6 134.1 135.5 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 4
HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 4 3 5 8 6 8 11 10 10 13 16 17 13 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 3. 7. 11. 16. 18. 21. 25. 29. 30. 32. 32. 29.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 122.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/29/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 2.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.24 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 0.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.0% 6.0% 3.7% 0.0% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 3.1% 3.1% 0.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/29/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

LGEM pretty bullish

[cycloneye]

Look out Kingarabian .

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

Another area of low pressure is located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the
circulation appears well defined, showers and thunderstorms are
poorly organized and confined to an area southeast of the center.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ28 KNES 291800
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99E)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 13.3N

D. 123.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AROUND AN LLCC THAT
IS GREATER THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM THE ACTIVE LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING
IN A SHEAR PATTERN DT OF 1.5. THE 24 HR DEVELOPMENT TREND IS DEVELOPING
SLOWLY RESULTING MET TO BE 2.0 AND PT TO BE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS makes this pretty potent near 140-150W.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Look out Kingarabian .

https://i.imgur.com/VRGFz75.png

That's actually a relatively favorable setup for a system to hold together if it were to approach Hawaii but with the current SST configuration, you need at least a 290-300 heading for a strike starting at around 145-150W. I think a track further south is more likely.

[Kingarabian]

First things first is to see how much 99E interacts with 90E. Euro continues to show this getting absorbed by 90E.

[Kingarabian]

There's some hints in the long range operational and ensemble models for a break in the ridge near the CPAC. When and where that happens is key.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992021 07/29/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 30 32 36 38 42 44 47 51 56 55 58 58 57
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 30 32 36 38 42 44 47 51 56 55 58 58 57
V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 26 26 28 30 33 37 42 48 53 58 61 60
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 17 17 14 10 11 9 14 13 13 14 14 15 16 13 11 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -7 -5 -2 -3 -3 -6 -2 -3 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 298 305 322 353 32 114 96 104 57 67 55 66 51 66 52 42 13
SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 133 134 138 139 139 141 143 143 142 142 141 143 143 142
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 59 63 65 66 65 71 69 68 63 61 55 59 61 60 56 57 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 11 13 14 15 16 16
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -15 -4 -4 8 20 26 35 38 37 32 38 34 32 22 14 1
200 MB DIV 29 24 34 27 22 28 -18 -31 10 53 58 55 60 63 71 29 -15
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3
LAND (KM) 1714 1788 1863 1917 1971 2081 2215 2384 2525 2482 2343 2250 2196 2167 2152 2117 2039
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.2 125.0 125.6 126.2 127.2 128.5 130.1 131.7 133.2 134.6 135.6 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 6 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 0 1 3 4
HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 5 8 7 6 9 11 11 13 17 19 19 16 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 6. 8. 12. 14. 17. 21. 26. 25. 28. 28. 27.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 123.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992021 INVEST 07/29/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 2.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.24 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.77 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.1% 7.5% 5.8% 0.0% 7.4% 7.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 0.0% 2.5% 2.4% 0.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992021 INVEST 07/29/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

HWRF developing this now:

[Kingarabian]

It's getting slapped by 15-20k W/NW shear.

[Yellow Evan]

It's getting slapped by 15-20k W/NW shear.
https://i.imgur.com/r3A4hQ7.gif
https://i.imgur.com/6SSJ7zI.png

That’s a different shearing setup compared to yesterday actually. Anticyclone seems to have relocated to the NE. This shear should relax tomorrow if the GFS is to be believable but the GFS doesn’t build a new one over it either.

[Kingarabian]

It's getting slapped by 15-20k W/NW shear.
https://i.imgur.com/r3A4hQ7.gif
https://i.imgur.com/6SSJ7zI.png

That’s a different shearing setup compared to yesterday actually. Anticyclone seems to have relocated to the NE. This shear should relax tomorrow if the GFS is to be believable but the GFS doesn’t build a new one over it either.

Thinking the Euro solution of this getting absorbed by 90E might be more believable compared to the GFS/UKMET/CMC solutions. The latter models keep this a separate and robust entity.

[cycloneye]

Another area of low pressure is located about 1100 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. At this
time, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly
organized and confined to an area southeast of the center.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.