ATL: IDA - Models

[Ubuntwo]

The HWRF outer nest for 95E brought 99L down to 973mb and intensifying in the central Gulf, keep in mind this is lower resolution.

[ROCK]

18Z NAV is LA which is about a 900 mile shift from the 12Z lol

What site do you use to see it already?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[lsuhurricane]

0z ICON with a significant hurricane headed NNW near Rockport/Port O Connor

Moves very near Houston

[Clearcloudz]

Center passes right over my house.

[cycloneye]

967 mbs at landfall from ICON.

[IcyTundra]

00Z ICON is slightly further east than the 12Z ICON and 10 MB stronger. Landfall is on the east end of Matagorda Bay at 968 MB.

[catskillfire51]

Best place to be, this far out is next to the eye right? I am in Brazoria county just east of Matagorda. Should be a fun week of model watching!

[IcyTundra]

HWRF and HMON won't be running until the 06Z run right?

[ROCK]

Very similar to the 18Z GFS but a bit further west..still thou the storm surge alone would be massive. Any jump north would put it into Freeport with the NW quad over Galveston and up 45. Worst of the worst case scenario.

[catskillfire51]

Very similar to the 18Z GFS but a bit further west..still thou the storm surge alone would be massive. Any jump north would put it into Freeport with the NW quad over Galveston and up 45. Worst of the worst case scenario.

Wouldn't that match an Ike like track?

[Steve]

967 mbs at landfall from ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/EWs3EDg.png

That’s a recipe for a lot of flooding in SETX. It’s not a stall out on ICON, but that’s pretty slow moving. It’s not showing Harvey levels of rain, but the foot+ is there.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 500&fh=180

[Clearcloudz]

00Z GFS shows consolidation further north.

[IcyTundra]

Very similar to the 18Z GFS but a bit further west..still thou the storm surge alone would be massive. Any jump north would put it into Freeport with the NW quad over Galveston and up 45. Worst of the worst case scenario.

Wouldn't that match an Ike like track?

Ike was expected to make landfall somewhere between Freeport and San Luis Pass on the west end of Galveston Island, but instead it made landfall on the east end of Galveston Island and went north up Galveston Bay and the East side of Houston. Ike would have been a lot worse than it already was if it made landfall a bit further west.

[Keldeo1997]

00Z GFS shows consolidation further north.

https://i.imgur.com/VGFweYY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/eStXo77.gif

Going to shoot the Channel. Expecting a Major this run.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z GFS Shooting the GAP

[IcyTundra]

This run could get ugly expecting it to show a major.

[Steve]

Also icon ends at 180 hours. On its inland trajectory, the metroplex would be in line for flooding too. Way too early - just a comment on the end of the run.

[Keldeo1997]

Not a good trend

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS at 108 hours looking even more ominous than the previous run.

[IcyTundra]

It looks like the 00Z GFS is going to bring this in really close to Galveston if it continues the current trajectory.