ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Delta is really getting hammered by rain now.

[Fancy1001]

Eye definitely ragged now and western eyewall is looking weaker on radar. My guess is Ida maintains intensity through landfall. Of course the only difference between a Cat 4 and 5 at this point is a number. The impacts are the same

It’s a big difference for the record books

[FLpanhandle91]

EWRC and slight weakening has begun. Evident double wind max from recon and moat around eyewall on radar.

[cheezyWXguy]

Now a definite moat showing on radar.

Agreed, the eyewall is now completely separated, but man is it cranking. This next hour is probably its last chance to continue to intensify, otherwise it’s going in as-is.

[AutoPenalti]

Shallower waters may have prevented any successful EWRC which is what’s likely making it so ragged on IR, my best guess is remained intensity at landfall.

[kevin]

AF305 has FLAGGED 144 kt SFMR

[PandaCitrus]

It looks like New Orleans has dodged the bullet as far as the eye wall. They may only get TS/Cat1 winds now. As long as the levees do their job, this is not another Katrina for them.


https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1431980506653106181

[GCANE]

Helicity increasing over NOLA,
Stay on your toes for possible tornadoes in the next few hours

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1431982474662490119

[Airboy]

Looks like it have peaked just below a cat5

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431983056584335364

[ElectricStorm]

Extrap pressure has gone up a bit. We'll see what the drop has but it looks like intensification is done

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not much time for the developing EWRC to really do anything for its strength.

My guess is for landfall in about 3 hours. ~40 miles away from shore moving at 14 mph.

[supercane4867]

AF305 has FLAGGED 144 kt SFMR

Those shallow waters near the coastal swamp will generate a lot of suspicious numbers for sure...

[wx98]

Alright it has stopped intensification based on that pass. SFMR is discounted. FL winds only around 135 kt. Extrap pressure down to 931 (was 928 last pass from that plane).

[tolakram]

I see radar attenuation as that big band gets in between the radar site and the core. Has anyone seen recon proof of a double wind maxima? Once again, looks like a lot of really bad hot takes.

[Steve]

Strong helicity south of the eye with a strong tornado signature.
This will likely rotate and get onshore once Ida makes landfall.
Heads up NOLA and MS coast

We actually just had a tornado warning here in Escambia Co, FL.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/DRmetwatch/status/1431983193075462144




Good advice for us all.... I'm going to take a 20 minute break just to clear my head, get away from the screen, but also to focus a bit more of my mind on prayer for all in the area.

[StormPyrate]

I see radar attenuation as that big band gets in between the radar site and the core. Has anyone seen recon proof of a double wind maxima? Once again, looks like a lot of really bad hot takes.

good call, no one has posted any evidence of a double wind max
If this had more time an EWR might have happened but I can see happening is the beginnings of one that will not occur before landfall

[cheezyWXguy]

I see radar attenuation as that big band gets in between the radar site and the core. Has anyone seen recon proof of a double wind maxima? Once again, looks like a lot of really bad hot takes.

This probably is the initial stages of the process, I consider Mike Watkins pretty reliable. But it’s so early that I really doubt it’ll have any impact. It’s completely possible for intensification to continue with this structure in the short term