ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

Website for tracking storm surge. Already a reading over 10 feet.

https://www.srcc.tamu.edu/surge/

[supercane4867]

Morning microwave

[Blown Away]

Maybe a little NNW wobble past few frames. NHC update reported hurricane wind field expanded from 40 to 50 miles. NOLA might see some Cat 1 sustained winds, maybe.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I see radar attenuation as that big band gets in between the radar site and the core. Has anyone seen recon proof of a double wind maxima? Once again, looks like a lot of really bad hot takes.

There does appear to be a spike in winds right before the eyewall, indicative of a secondary wind maximum.

[ThetaE]

I see radar attenuation as that big band gets in between the radar site and the core. Has anyone seen recon proof of a double wind maxima? Once again, looks like a lot of really bad hot takes.

Last recon pass had a double wind maximum passing through the NE quadrant. Not a bonafide outer eyewall, but the start of one. This is an ERC barely begun, and there's really no way it finishes before landfall. I'm not really sure it will get on far enough to weaken Ida's inner eyewall much in the next few hours either. Starting to look a bit better on radar the last few frames.

[RL3AO]

I see radar attenuation as that big band gets in between the radar site and the core. Has anyone seen recon proof of a double wind maxima? Once again, looks like a lot of really bad hot takes.

I think it's probably starting the process.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force sonde: 933mb with 5 knots of wind at about 9:13am CDT.

[Highteeld]

Pressure up a couple mb. The storm likely peaked at 929 mb with 148 kt FL winds and 132 kt SFMR. ERC is starting based off the double FL wind Maxima.

[TheDreamTraveler]

For anyone posting the tweet that says a eyewall replacement cycle is beginning there's no evidence to suggest that it is. I haven't seen any meteorologists suggest that otherwise. Probably better to post a caution because not everyone is right on twitter and things aren't 100% verified there lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1431986780643991553

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Airboy]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Name: Ida
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 25

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 14:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.75N 89.92W
B. Center Fix Location: 85 statute miles (137 km) to the S (174°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,529m (8,297ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 933mb (27.55 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 215° at 5kts (From the SW at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 107kts (123.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (90°) of center fix at 14:06:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 183° at 136kts (From the S at 156.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (91°) of center fix at 14:06:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 98kts (112.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (234°) of center fix at 14:12:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 321° at 109kts (From the NW at 125.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (234°) of center fix at 14:12:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (91°) from the flight level center at 14:06:30Z

[ElectricStorm]

Drop confirms intensification is done

[Meteorcane]

A question now, is whether it will clip the "landmass" (it is always debatable in south Louisiana where land actually begins near the coast) just west of Port Fouchon (which would likely occur in the next 2-3 hours at its current pace) or whether it goes up Terrebonne Bay and doesn't technically make landfall until it is further west(which would add about 1-2 hours of time and be closer to like 2-3pm)?

[artist]

See this thread for live webcams and Mark Sudduth, etc
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=122169&p=2936300#p2936300

[tolakram]

saved loop

[LSU2001]

Well, just lost power here in Cut Off about 20min ago. We are now getting sustained winds around 40 mph and gusts to close to hurricane strength.

[MGC]

Concur, appears an EWRC has commenced....and with it expanded wind field. Current eye should remain intact to landfall. Grand Isle going to get the Mexico Beach treatment....MGC

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/news_fuentes/status/1431980627746861063

[toad strangler]

Ida seems to be sliding W of NO by a decent margin. Hopefully good news for the larger pop places.