ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[birdwomn]

Simply a handful of hours before it happens, surprise surprise we see this now?

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

I know what the locals here, that WILL BE AFFECTED, are thinking and saying.

I know I am saying the same thing I have for the past several days: It is very difficult to know what will happen with a Gulf storm until it gets to Cuba.

The NHC and others do a great job with using forecasts, models, and history to come up with the most likely possibilities. We all have to plan the best we can and hope and pray these storms will dissipate and/or have minimal impact on people's homes and lives.

[tolakram]

Simply a handful of hours before it happens, surprise surprise we see this now?

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

I know what the locals here, that WILL BE AFFECTED, are thinking and saying.

Did you get notified of the hurricane watch put in your area this morning?

[jfk08c]

Looks like that previous eyewall attempt collapsed and is attempting to reform east of the previous on radar.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like that previous eyewall attempt collapsed and is attempting to reform east of the previous on radar.

it is going to keep doing stuff like that.. the low level eye is slightly offset to the Mid level eye so every new burst of convection causes some funky radar returns in the mid levels.

but it clearly is not stopping it from deepening

[StormPyrate]

will another recon go out tonight or is that done,

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is attaining a buzzsaw look on radar

[Category5Kaiju]

So just to make sure is this the most significant TC threat Tampa has seen in a while? If so when was the last time Tampa actually faced a hurricane threat up front?

[Michele B]

Looks like that previous eyewall attempt collapsed and is attempting to reform east of the previous on radar.

I can't tell because I cannot tell where the eye is - oh, sorry, maybe not an eye, but CoC - but Elsa looks like she's moving due north now, rather than NNW.

And as far as the "previous eyewall attempting to reform east..." I CAN ONLY HOPE that doesn't mean she IS going to find the Peace RIver!

[johngaltfla]

SRQ and TIA are going to be shut down after 6 p.m. Hope everyone got in and out that need to. Let's hope this drifts west instead of the projected trajectory as our coastal communities are just now recovering from everything else.

[rigbyrigz]

Simply a handful of hours before it happens, surprise surprise we see this now?

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

I know what the locals here, that WILL BE AFFECTED, are thinking and saying.

Did you get notified of the hurricane watch put in your area this morning?

Yes, I personally was way ahead of the curve (pun intended) as folks here that look at models and have some valid experience were saying don't take this so lightly. (Thanks all)

My beef is the NHC and the media that reads the discussion see this on Monday:
Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba
today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be
limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast
is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus.

Not everyone is engaged as me of of course. I just wish the NHC would have added a bit more "but could be" stuff, that has actually (seemed to) pan out, so those others would have more pep and prep. But I'm happy to discuss, and thanks for that.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Well if there is a silver lining to Elsa for Pinellas County, maybe she will stir things up enough to get rid of the Red Tide that recently started.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Buoy observations confirming the min 60 knot intensity, owned by my Alma mater (USF).

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1412523743897862149

[ColdMiser123]

Buoy observations confirming the min 60 knot intensity, owned by my Alma mater (USF).

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1412523743897862149

Impressive, especially considering that was on the weaker side of the storm as well.

[HurricaneBelle]

My beef is the NHC and the media that reads the discussion see this on Monday:
Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba
today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be
limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast
is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus.

Not everyone is engaged as me of of course. I just wish the NHC would have added a bit more "but could be" stuff, that has actually (seemed to) pan out, so those others would have more pep and prep. But I'm happy to discuss, and thanks for that.

Sounds like the NHC was already more "right" than the models as they explicitly state their intensity forecast was higher than what the models were showing. It also says that "restrengthening is likely to be limited". Limited doesn't mean no restrengthening. And that's what happened. It went from 60 to 70 MPH, and if it becomes a hurricane it's only going to be 75-80 at most. That sounds like limited restrengthening to me.

[Hammy]

will another recon go out tonight or is that done,

Scheduled to arrive in about 90 minutes it looks like. Takeoff is in 30 or so.

[cycloneye]

The famous chaser is going to intercept Elsa.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1412522425888116736

[psyclone]

Simply a handful of hours before it happens, surprise surprise we see this now?

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

I know what the locals here, that WILL BE AFFECTED, are thinking and saying.

Did you get notified of the hurricane watch put in your area this morning?

Yes, I personally was way ahead of the curve (pun intended) as folks here that look at models and have some valid experience were saying don't take this so lightly. (Thanks all)

My beef is the NHC and the media that reads the discussion see this on Monday:
Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba
today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be
limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast
is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus.

Not everyone is engaged as me of of course. I just wish the NHC would have added a bit more "but could be" stuff, that has actually (seemed to) pan out, so those others would have more pep and prep. But I'm happy to discuss, and thanks for that.

The NHC has done magnificent. the only issue here is we have a system that's a borderline hurricane. so they have to walk a fine line. let's do an example:

60mph vs 65mph storm...no big deal
50mph vs 55mph storm... no big deal. but all of a sudden
70mph storm vs 75mph hurricane and the world is ending. no it isn't. There's not a drastic difference between a high end ts and a minimal hurricane. it's a man made boundary in tc nomenclature and that's it. there is way too much obsessing over that boundary by people seeking a level of granularity that will never exist.

[rigbyrigz]

My beef is the NHC and the media that reads the discussion see this on Monday:
Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba
today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be
limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast
is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus.

Not everyone is engaged as me of of course. I just wish the NHC would have added a bit more "but could be" stuff, that has actually (seemed to) pan out, so those others would have more pep and prep. But I'm happy to discuss, and thanks for that.

Sounds like the NHC was already more "right" than the models as they explicitly state their intensity forecast was higher than what the models were showing. It also says that "restrengthening is likely to be limited". Limited doesn't mean no restrengthening. And that's what happened. It went from 60 to 70 MPH, and if it becomes a hurricane it's only going to be 75-80 at most. That sounds like limited restrengthening to me.

Just for discussion purposes, I personally think a Monday afternoon "restrengthening is likely to be limited, but intensifying back to hurricane status is not out of the questions" (or such) would have been way better, or on beam ("reflecting" some of the models or other bullish feelings out there.) Maybe even something more definitive possibility flavor. Just my opinion.

(Then again, here near Keaton Beach, thunder and heavy rain and wind and a big limb just fell, so I'm a bit snarky.)

[artist]

6 hours away and the slowed-down path is still far from precise, and it will matter here.

I know i may get my head bit off, but this is a discussion forum, and I really think the NHC kinda blew it (pun intended) by not putting up the "H" and stuff in last night's 11PM releases.

Folks here are kinda complacent, and without that H and watch and warning in their face, didn't get as revved up as they maybe should have (from personal anecdotal experience locally here.)

You look at the 48 hours guidance and such for watches and warnings, and to put this H up 6-8 hours before a very possible landfall is not an A+ public service, IMHO. Many of the folks here and Twitter were very helpful of course (keepin us on our toes), and thanks to all.

And if they put an H in the forecast and it never strengthened they would have blown it as well. You get your head bit off for comments like that because you should know better. Every storm we either get half the posters complaining the NHC exaggerated a storm or the other half saying they under forecast the storm. Give it a rest, for crying out loud.

I understand, but a few pages back there were numerous "atta boy" NHC doing a great job (especially when the several significant models were more than a bit different). Now I can't politely sincerely criticize them? What kind of discussion is that?

As early as 5am they mentioned it could become a hurricane. -


I did not look back further, but that is more than 6 hours, as you suggested
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[NDG]

Well if there is a silver lining to Elsa for Pinellas County, maybe she will stir things up enough to get rid of the Red Tide that recently started.

That's what I was about to say earlier, Elsa will stir up the Bay and area beaches to hopefully get rid some of the Red Tide that has been plaguing that area since at least Memorial Weekend.