ATL: FRED - Models

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Cat5James
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#421 Postby Cat5James » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:25 pm

Jr0d wrote:The HWRF is back to being the HWRF on this run. After having the center 'jump' north over Hispaniola it shows Fred pulling itself together on late Friday, also a bit slower than most of the models.

https://ibb.co/WHLLGWd


Levi said in his video the llc may very well jump north
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#422 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:30 pm

Cat5James wrote:
Jr0d wrote:The HWRF is back to being the HWRF on this run. After having the center 'jump' north over Hispaniola it shows Fred pulling itself together on late Friday, also a bit slower than most of the models.

https://ibb.co/WHLLGWd


Levi said in his video the llc may very well jump north


Sure did
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#423 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:31 pm

Cat5James wrote:
Jr0d wrote:The HWRF is back to being the HWRF on this run. After having the center 'jump' north over Hispaniola it shows Fred pulling itself together on late Friday, also a bit slower than most of the models.

https://ibb.co/WHLLGWd


Levi said in his video the llc may very well jump north


I’m always cautious with HWRF, but it did generally get right Fred’s current intensity when others didn’t. Look at all that convection well to the NE of Hispaniola, that is reflected in the 12z HWRF.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#424 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:33 pm

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#425 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:35 pm

Well, whether it is just for entertainment or not remains to be seen. But that HWRF run should generate a little excitement around here.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#426 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:35 pm



Without sounding like a downcaster, I'll eat my own hat should this scenario pan out.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#427 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:36 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:


Without sounding like a downcaster, I'll eat my own hat should this scenario pan out.


Let’s see what we got after Haiti.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#428 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:39 pm

Yep Friday is the day to hang out here.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#429 Postby Jr0d » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:40 pm

HWRF landfall around Miami, maxed out around 985mb.. around cat 2 strength. Very bullish run, kind of feel.like this is a worst case scenario and possibly not realistic.

Let's see whats left of Fred tomorrow before we hype this run up.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#430 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:43 pm

Well we all know Miami has a hurricane shield so that
probably will not play out…..nice try.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#431 Postby Cat5James » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:45 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Well we all know Miami has a hurricane shield so that
probably will not play out…..nice try.

Miami is still well within the cone and we are less than 3 days out. so....
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#432 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:47 pm

Cat5James wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Well we all know Miami has a hurricane shield so that
probably will not play out…..nice try.

Miami is still well within the cone and we are less than 3 days out. so....


This!
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#433 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:48 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:


Without sounding like a downcaster, I'll eat my own hat should this scenario pan out.
I will double my 2021 donation to S2K if Dade, Broward or Plam Beach Counties get a landfalling hurricane named Fred this year. I am extremely confident in the NHC current track keeping it away from said counties.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#434 Postby Nuno » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:51 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:


Without sounding like a downcaster, I'll eat my own hat should this scenario pan out.
I will double my 2021 donation to S2K if Dade, Broward or Plam Beach Counties get a landfalling hurricane named Fred this year. I am extremely confident in the NHC current track keeping it away from said counties.


Dade County is in the three day cone. Where is your confidence coming from?
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#435 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:52 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:


Without sounding like a downcaster, I'll eat my own hat should this scenario pan out.
I will double my 2021 donation to S2K if Dade, Broward or Plam Beach Counties get a landfalling hurricane named Fred this year. I am extremely confident in the NHC current track keeping it away from said counties.

While a landfall of a TS or cat 1 is less likely in dade, it is well inside of a 3 day cone....
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#436 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:02 pm

Nuno wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Without sounding like a downcaster, I'll eat my own hat should this scenario pan out.
I will double my 2021 donation to S2K if Dade, Broward or Plam Beach Counties get a landfalling hurricane named Fred this year. I am extremely confident in the NHC current track keeping it away from said counties.


Dade County is in the three day cone. Where is your confidence coming from?


My 20+ years of tracking storms in sofla, the current NHC track and their recent stellar performance. However, if I am wrong its still a win because doubling my donation to s2k is money well spent, after last nights outage maybe the funds would help :D .

Bottom line is I have far more confidence in myself and the NHC than I do the HWRF which is basically what I am betting against. The intensity is overcooked because the track is wrong, we will know tomorrow if the HWRF stands a chance.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#437 Postby Cat5James » Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:05 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Nuno wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:I will double my 2021 donation to S2K if Dade, Broward or Plam Beach Counties get a landfalling hurricane named Fred this year. I am extremely confident in the NHC current track keeping it away from said counties.


Dade County is in the three day cone. Where is your confidence coming from?


My 20+ years of tracking storms in sofla, the current NHC track and their recent stellar performance. However, if I am wrong its still a win because doubling my donation to s2k is money well spent, after last nights outage maybe the funds would help :D .

Bottom line is I have far more confidence in myself and the NHC than I do the HWRF which is basically what I am betting against. The intensity is overcooked because the track is wrong, we will know tomorrow if the HWRF stands a chance.


Does the fact that the 12Z Euro just shifted North East as well concern you at all?
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#438 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:12 pm

Cat5James wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Nuno wrote:
Dade County is in the three day cone. Where is your confidence coming from?


My 20+ years of tracking storms in sofla, the current NHC track and their recent stellar performance. However, if I am wrong its still a win because doubling my donation to s2k is money well spent, after last nights outage maybe the funds would help :D .

Bottom line is I have far more confidence in myself and the NHC than I do the HWRF which is basically what I am betting against. The intensity is overcooked because the track is wrong, we will know tomorrow if the HWRF stands a chance.


Does the fact that the 12Z Euro just shifted North East as well concern you at all?


He still wins as Fred recurves off the coast. :lol:
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#439 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:15 pm

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Re: ATL: FRED - Models

#440 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 11, 2021 1:16 pm


Excuse me but



WHAT THE ---?

HWRF is back to being oddly bullish with such a short time frame.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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