ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#421 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:50 pm

12z GFS and 18z GFS nailed it, it showed reforming this far north about this time tonight, maybe by a couple of hours.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#422 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:51 pm

NDG wrote:12z GFS and 18z GFS nailed it, it showed reforming this far north about this time tonight, maybe by a couple of hours.

Rather impressive for a global model.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#423 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:51 pm

Whoa, look at the IR.... Nick is exploding
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#424 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:52 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Latest gfs tad west landfall


Yep, 00z GFS a little faster and W of 18z run.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#425 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:52 pm

NDG what you think in Victoria still chance I’ll see center?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#426 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:54 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:NDG what you think in Victoria still chance I’ll see center?


Will probably go east of Victoria but yes still a chance.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#427 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:56 pm

GFS initialized Nick a tad bit west and south. General consensus seems to be on par though. That track, or one similar, is likely to verify IMO.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#428 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:58 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:NDG what you think in Victoria still chance I’ll see center?


Will probably go east of Victoria but yes still a chance.


00z GFS shifted slightly W near Victoria, but NHC track and 00z GFS still just offshore as it passes your latitude...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#429 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:59 pm

Gefs ensembles shifted back west too…
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#430 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:02 pm

Convection is firing up. Cold ass towers. Still disorganized though...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#431 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:03 pm

Coming down hard here in League City.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#432 Postby hurricane2025 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:11 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Gefs ensembles shifted back west too…



New center so models won’t be good till 06 run
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#433 Postby funster » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:12 pm

Looks like it will be easy to get ten or more inches in many locations. Rain already coming down in many locations well ahead of the storm.

 https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/1437262459690233863


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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#434 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:16 pm

Is it me or did the tvcn models just shift back to the west
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#435 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:16 pm

hurricane2025 wrote:
jaguars_22 wrote:Gefs ensembles shifted back west too…



New center so models won’t be good till 06 run


The ensembles have been west bias all season. He make a run at 85-90mph before all said and done IMO. Nick seems to have tapped into that 32C high octane sssts. The iR presentation Is impressive
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#436 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:16 pm

Midnight Video Update on Nicholas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzW5l7fQ-E8
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#437 Postby grapealcoholic » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:18 pm

Seems almost stalled right now while it stacks
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#438 Postby Craters » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:20 pm

IcyTundra wrote:Coming down hard here in League City.

Steady rain here in Alvin.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#439 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:22 pm

New shear chart.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#440 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:23 pm

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1437263861082697728


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