ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drewschmaltz]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

Really curious as to what caused the almost instantaneous collapse right as it was in ramp up mode. Fascinating

Maybe it was that radar swipe.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think I speak for all of us when I say that Elsa has been the most confusing storm I've ever tracked.

I don't know... Isaias last year was really bad.

That storm was the ultimate headache.

Agree, so glad that that Elsa will only be a brief rain maker and maybe down a few trees here and there... It's moving pretty fast too.... Looking forward to what August will bring us now.....I expect we will go into a Lull the rest of the month, that's pretty typical from what I hear...

[Evil Jeremy]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

Stewart at 11pm strongly defending the decision of Stewart at 5pm. Normally I’m all for his particular style of upside forecasting, but this wasn’t one of his best moments.

As for the notion that this was the most, or even one of the most confusing storms to track, I’m not sure it would crack my top-10, but I’ve been out of town and in vacation mode for a week so I probably can’t say.

Anyway, wishing the best to all the Tampa Bay folks. Unfortunately I believe this is a harbinger of the months ahead.

[Hammy]

Interesting thing that just occurred to me, by the time this is over we're going to be at three for three with US landfalls eventually crossing through Georgia.

[caneman]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

Stewart at 11pm strongly defending the decision of Stewart at 5pm. Normally I’m all for his particular style of upside forecasting, but this wasn’t one of his best moments.

As for the notion that this was the most, or even one of the most confusing storms to track, I’m not sure it would crack my top-10, but I’ve been out of town and in vacation mode for a week so I probably can’t say.

Anyway, wishing the best to all the Tampa Bay folks. Unfortunately I believe this is a harbinger of the months ahead.

Oh, It 100% has been one of the most difficult and confounding storms

[Hurricane Mike]

Doesn't look like a hurricane, but it definitely looked good earlier.

[galaxy401]

Elsa has been rather frustrating to forecast but in the end, it's a storm traversing from the MDR to the Gulf of Mexico in early July. Conditions aren't the most favorable even in active years. The fact we had a hurricane in the first place is crazy enough.

Sidenote, I do feel Elsa became a hurricane earlier today but only briefly (like Eta last year).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Tropical cyclones love my state. If you want to get through continental US, ya gotta go through Ga. Ga gets an insane amount of storms or remnants it’s ridiculous. 5 last year and 3 this year as storms or remnants or PTC

[Sciencerocks]

[InfernoFlameCat]

She pulled an ETA. Ok I’m a hurricane again now. Time to go to sleep.

[wxhorse]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

Tell me you’re downgrading a storm without downgrading a storm

[GrovesNest]

Drank a Red Bull to stay up and watch the storm around 8 this evening. But 3 hours later, I gotta say, this storm is putting me to sleep. Hasn’t broken more than 25mph on the station a block away. Still hoping we get a decent enough displacement in Tampa Bay to flush out this awful red tide. Will be up early tomorrow to pick up the branches in the yard. Thanks for the ride, Storm2k. See ya for the next one.

[HurricaneBelle]

Wind has really started to pick up in Safety Harbor, actually hearing it now a bit from within the house. This ain't no hurricane, but it's still a tropical storm.

[Hurricane Mike]

New Video on Hurricane Elsa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4Czm7j8iE0

[ZipWx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5662/pXx8Iu.gif

Can someone weigh in on these high streaming clouds fanning out and away from Elsa as the inner convection collapses?

Energy transfer?

[LarryWx]

I will say that it's starting to show an eye again on radar with a strengthening cell or two on its east side and if it can wrap in that feeder band extending from Sarasota south it might ramp back up a bit. Absolutely nothing with the storm will surprise me any longer.

Agreed. One minute it looks great, next minute looks like trash. Looks great on satellite but then recon shows her in a sad state, polar opposite when it looks like crap on satellite.

Keeping her at 75 mph might be the best thing to do, don’t want to be going back and forth with the intensity.

I agree that it looks like garbage.... Next???????????????
I'm ready to move on and wait for the next one.

Looking like garbage is a great thing for most in its path. I know someone who has been quite nervous. He has to be somewhat relieved right now.

[psyclone]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5662/pXx8Iu.gif

Can someone weigh in on these high streaming clouds fanning out and away from Elsa as the inner convection collapses?

Energy transfer?

The cirrus fanning out clockwise is outflow (exhaust out of the top of the cyclone)

[Steve]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

Really curious as to what caused the almost instantaneous collapse right as it was in ramp up mode. Fascinating

I’ve known you since the 90’s, and you already know. Dynogel.

[Steve]

Presented without comment:

"The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight."

Stewart at 11pm strongly defending the decision of Stewart at 5pm. Normally I’m all for his particular style of upside forecasting, but this wasn’t one of his best moments.

As for the notion that this was the most, or even one of the most confusing storms to track, I’m not sure it would crack my top-10, but I’ve been out of town and in vacation mode for a week so I probably can’t say.

Anyway, wishing the best to all the Tampa Bay folks. Unfortunately I believe this is a harbinger of the months ahead.

It’s not even probably top 10 of the third millennium AD. But we are old and have seen what real curveballs do.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Wind has really started to pick up in Safety Harbor, actually hearing it now a bit from within the house. This ain't no hurricane, but it's still a tropical storm.

What's up my Floridabro

Currently chilling with a Florida Man beer and a Publix Sub

So far nothing but rain in Lutz ...about 30 minutes from you.

Not sure where the wind is...or maybe its coming