ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

This storm is not carrying winds aloft to the surface. Should never have been upgraded. Not even a tropical storm-force sustained wind across the Tampa Bay area. Max winds peaked at around 50-55 kts yesterday at its peak.

Even the best buoy wind measured was only 48.6kts sustained and gust to 68kts. Don't know if it was ever more than 60mph TS.

That was at 3 meters (adjusts to 55kt at 10m) and on the west side of the cyclone. Something tells me they're not going to downgrade the second peak in post, although I think it was closer to 60kt.

[Dean4Storms]

This storm is not carrying winds aloft to the surface. Should never have been upgraded. Not even a tropical storm-force sustained wind across the Tampa Bay area. Max winds peaked at around 50-55 kts yesterday at its peak.

Even the best buoy wind measured was only 48.6kts sustained and gust to 68kts. Don't know if it was ever more than 60mph TS.

That was at 3 meters (adjusts to 55kt at 10m) and on the west side of the cyclone. Something tells me they're not going to downgrade the second peak in post, although I think it was closer to 60kt.

It was an East wind, pretty hard to get an East wind on the western side of a cyclone in the northern hemisphere. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023

[Michele B]

Well, I decided to check in on Elsa right before I needed to catch some sleep, and I find myself a bit surprised - compared to earlier tonight (after the core collapse), the storm is looking better.

Her radar appearance has improved, deep convection has refired near or over the northern edge of the center, and inflow has increased substantially on the southern side. Said inflow has even resulted in a massive, lightning-filled rain band with deep convection to develop near Port Charlotte and Fort Myers/Cape Coral, as well as given rise to tornadic couplets in certain spots on the Florida peninsula.

While I'm certainly not anticipating anything as dramatic as what happened in the evening hours yesterday, don't be surprised if Elsa puts on one last semi-impressive display before moving onshore later this morning. Where the storm makes landfall, at what intensity it does so, and what track is taken will be important for future intensity; with the NNW motion tonight, however, there's little chance she manages to cut across to exit offshore prior to the Outer Banks. Hopefully, that limits the system's impact on the already-saturated soils that exist across the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

Most recent radar image (courtesy of Mark Nissenbaum): https://i.imgur.com/7dhtR6J.png

IR Satellite Imagery Loop (courtesy of the College of DuPage):
https://imgur.com/airGbLO

Well, I’ll tell ya, it wasn’t “semi-dramatic!”

The yellow band of heavy weather with plenty of lightning woke us up about 4. There was some wind, more than all day yesterday so my assessment is the trailing blob behind Elsa was certainly more impressive than the storm itself around here!

We’re just in from Pt Charlotte.

[Ubuntwo]

Even the best buoy wind measured was only 48.6kts sustained and gust to 68kts. Don't know if it was ever more than 60mph TS.

That was at 3 meters (adjusts to 55kt at 10m) and on the west side of the cyclone. Something tells me they're not going to downgrade the second peak in post, although I think it was closer to 60kt.

It was an East wind, pretty hard to get an East wind on the western side of a cyclone in the northern hemisphere. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023

Take it up with Stewart

Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023
around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters
elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west
side of the cyclone.

[caneman]

This storm is not carrying winds aloft to the surface. Should never have been upgraded. Not even a tropical storm-force sustained wind across the Tampa Bay area. Max winds peaked at around 50-55 kts yesterday at its peak.

In fairness, the core collapsed just before we would have seen those max winds. It wasn't at its closest point to us when it collapsed and once it would have got just North of us, we would have also got the tail effect which on this coast many times is the worst part. I have no problem with the upgrade. I'm certain had it not collapsed that we would have seen 70's and 80 mph's wind gusts. It was clearly ramping up as it was approaching a major metro area so better to err on the side of caution.

[Dean4Storms]

That was at 3 meters (adjusts to 55kt at 10m) and on the west side of the cyclone. Something tells me they're not going to downgrade the second peak in post, although I think it was closer to 60kt.

It was an East wind, pretty hard to get an East wind on the western side of a cyclone in the northern hemisphere. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023

Take it up with Stewart

Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023
around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters
elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west
side of the cyclone.

Never saw any recon report with that strong a wind on the west side of this and he'd have to explain how it received a due East wind with that gust

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still messy but convection blowing up again and spreading out on ir. Doubt it has big implications strength wise but could bring a lot of rain to more people.

[aspen]

I thought Elsa was on a weakening trend last night, but it seems that 1007 mbar pass didn’t quite hit the center, and this pass found a somewhat better organized system (LLC smack under a burst of convection) with pressures back down to 1000 mbar. So not an impressive system but not awful. Slightly less of an eye sore than Barry.

[Nimbus]

This storm is not carrying winds aloft to the surface. Should never have been upgraded. Not even a tropical storm-force sustained wind across the Tampa Bay area. Max winds peaked at around 50-55 kts yesterday at its peak.

In fairness, the core collapsed just before we would have seen those max winds. It wasn't at its closest point to us when it collapsed and once it would have got just North of us, we would have also got the tail effect which on this coast many times is the worst part. I have no problem with the upgrade. I'm certain had it not collapsed that we would have seen 70's and 80 mph's wind gusts. It was clearly ramping up as it was approaching a major metro area so better to err on the side of caution.

Power out less than one day thats how I usually measure the average wind speeds.
Max sustained winds at Buoy 42013 peaked at 42 knots around 8 PM and the core blew apart after that. There were 64 MPH gusts there which could have damaged exposed mobile homes along lake shores and bays etc and one good tornado could have made the headlines.

"More than 15,400 Tampa Electric Co. customers lost power overnight. By 7 a.m., all but about 2,000 had power restored, according to its outage map. Most were in Hillsborough County, where the company’s customer base is concentrated, as well as Pasco and Polk counties."

[InfernoFlameCat]

I’m sure Elsa hit hurricane intensity yesterday.

[caneman]

This storm is not carrying winds aloft to the surface. Should never have been upgraded. Not even a tropical storm-force sustained wind across the Tampa Bay area. Max winds peaked at around 50-55 kts yesterday at its peak.

In fairness, the core collapsed just before we would have seen those max winds. It wasn't at its closest point to us when it collapsed and once it would have got just North of us, we would have also got the tail effect which on this coast many times is the worst part. I have no problem with the upgrade. I'm certain had it not collapsed that we would have seen 70's and 80 mph's wind gusts. It was clearly ramping up as it was approaching a major metro area so better to err on the side of caution.

Power out less than one day thats how I usually measure the average wind speeds.
Max sustained winds at Buoy 42013 peaked at 42 knots around 8 PM and the core blew apart after that. There were 64 MPH gusts there which could have damaged exposed mobile homes along lake shores and bays etc and one good tornado could have made the headlines.

"More than 15,400 Tampa Electric Co. customers lost power overnight. By 7 a.m., all but about 2,000 had power restored, according to its outage map. Most were in Hillsborough County, where the company’s customer base is concentrated, as well as Pasco and Polk counties."

I live near the coast 70 mph winds always takes out.our power. I'm certain had it not collapsed that once parallel and just North of us we would have received those winds and have no power.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa has near formed an eye on radar again. It’s still open to the south but it’s a strengthening storm. Those are much worse than weakening ones because gusts are much more prevalent (gusts are what actually strengthen the storm by increasing mean wind speeds as a result of the pressure gradient). It’s a pretty neat process but dangerous. I will take a weakening cat 1 over a strengthening high end Ts considering other factors are equal.

[Vdogg]

How far is Elsa from landfall?

[aspen]

I live in SW CT and saw that the track has shifted west with a stronger storm off the coast than before. Does anyone know how much rainfall I can expect and if I’ll get any TS-force winds/gusts?

[InfernoFlameCat]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

How far is Elsa from landfall?

Probably will make landfall before 9 am

[InfernoFlameCat]

I live in SW CT and saw that the track has shifted west with a stronger storm off the coast than before. Does anyone know how much rainfall I can expect and if I’ll get any TS-force winds/gusts?

I doubt you will receive many impacts besides overcast. It should head East fast as it gets embedded in the westerlies.

[ronjon]

In Hernando Beach, largely a rainmaker. I've recorded 6.04 inches since midnight. Peak gust maybe 30 mph. Winds still blowing offshore and fortunately for us its low tide now.

[wx98]

Running out of land fast. Looks to come in above Cedar Key somewhere around Horseshoe Beach by 15z/11 am EDT.

[InfernoFlameCat]

You can see her building an eye on satellite with two hot towers rapidly rotating around the center.

[wx98]

Elsa has near formed an eye on radar again. It’s still open to the south but it’s a strengthening storm. Those are much worse than weakening ones because gusts are much more prevalent (gusts are what actually strengthen the storm by increasing mean wind speeds as a result of the pressure gradient). It’s a pretty neat process but dangerous. I will take a weakening cat 1 over a strengthening high end Ts considering other factors are equal.

I believe that’s more of a dry socket devoid of precipitation than it is a true eye.