ATL: ELSA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

What if it turns out to be more accurate than the GFS? Is it impossible for the Euro solution to come close to verifying?

Well for starters, it didn't get initialization right for the past 3 days...

So? It doesn't mean that it's solution will turn out wrong. If Elsa ends up much weaker and east of Florida, it will be the more accurate than the GFS. I will admit that it's forecast looks suspect, but it in two days it's not impossible that we are saying that the euro was on to something all along....

We'll see.

[Hurricane Mike]

Once again the EURO showed almost no genesis and certainly not a hurricane.

[Weatherboy1]

So looks like GFS has shifted back W in the long term. UKMET has stopped forecasting a move toward the Yucatan and joined the WNW/NW/N/NE turn (though still out in the Gulf vs. over Florida peninsula). CMC still sending a weaker Elsa just to the E of FL

[tiger_deF]

So looks like GFS has shifted back W in the long term. UKMET has stopped forecasting a move toward the Yucatan and joined the WNW/NW/N/NE turn (though still out in the Gulf vs. over Florida peninsula). CMC still sending a much weaker Elsa in general direction of Southeast FL

Frankly, just going off the models you'd think Elsa was a middling tropical storm. Surprised by the recent shifts

[eastcoastFL]

For those of you still following the Euro its latest 06z run has Elsa opening up into the TW tonight, lol.

https://i.imgur.com/EASagi4.png

I really hope the people that run the euro are doing some heavy upgrades and fast.

What if it turns out to be more accurate than the GFS? Is it impossible for the Euro solution to come close to verifying?

It could turn out to be accurate down the road but that won’t discount how miserably it’s failed with the system so far. It’s also repeating the same failures as last year with storms like Laura so it clearly has some issues to work out.

[gatorcane]

CMC is weaker and has shifted more east of Florida:

[hurricane2025]

Never trust models till about 3 days out , also hard to get a strong system this early but if this was august or sept man oh man

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF initialization spot-on.

[tolakram]

A little stronger, further south. Always nice to have model agreement.

[eastcoastFL]

Gonna miss Hispaniola

[eastcoastFL]

Yup threads the needle south of DR….

[Cat5James]

These systems love to avoid interaction with land when possible. Multiple times I've seen the center of a storm dance around an island it looked sure to be on a collision course with. Threading the needle as models have consistantly shown over the past week definitely seems plausible.

[Jr0d]

Looking at the IR simulation, the GFS is very poorly inialized showing a disorganized storm/borderline open wave. Hopefully the next run will be more realistic.

The HWRF looks like a great initialization but I'm always skeptical of how it can often be overly bullish.....but so far seems to be performing great.

[AutoPenalti]

These systems love to avoid interaction with land when possible. Multiple times I've seen the center of a storm dance around an island it looked sure to be on a collision course with. Threading the needle as models have consistantly shown over the past week definitely seems plausible.

Dorian came to mind. Most models had it disappearing near the islands, threaded the needle, and the rest is history.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW it's 2mb weaker.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at the IR simulation, the GFS is very poorly inialized showing a disorganized storm/borderline open wave. Hopefully the next run will be more realistic.

The HWRF looks like a great initialization but I'm always skeptical of how it can often be overly bullish.....but so far seems to be performing great.

It’s showing some slight weakening as it crosses the islands today but then ramps back up overnight when it gets south of DR.

[tolakram]

Next frame is stronger though. Looks about the same overall.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm blind, is that 985 or 965?

[robbielyn]

1004 mb into wakulla in the panhandle just east of appalach for landfall. i can live with that if it pans out.

[galaxy401]

I'm blind, is that 985 or 965?

969 it looks like.