ATL: GRACE - Models

[ElectricStorm]

Weakening a bit on HMON, probably due to shear

[AtlanticWind]

Hwrf has really trended north since its had the data from the 2 recon flights.

We will see if its solution is correct soon.

[IcyTundra]

I know the HWRF tends to have a northern bias compared to other models but it's crazy how much further north it is compared to the rest of the 00z suite of models.

[ElectricStorm]

Opens up into a wave N of Cuba on HMON

[AxaltaRacing24]

I know the HWRF tends to have a northern bias compared to other models but it's crazy how much further north it is compared to the rest of the 00z suite of models.

It has to be Henri I feel like. It's a cat 1 right above it. I could very well be wrong, but just throwing it out there.

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane heading into the Bahamas on HWRF

[IcyTundra]

HMON has Grace going north of the GA but shows no strengthening keeping it as a very weak TS as this heads through the Florida Keys.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS is back to showing a few more stronger northern members than it did at 18z. Not near as many as 12z, but more than 18z.


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[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF is a bit NNW of 18z at hour 99. It has Dorian 2.0 13mb stronger than 18z at 977mb.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF has a Cat 3 headed WNW between Andros and Grand Bahama Island.


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[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF has a Cat 3 headed WNW between Andros and Grand Bahama Island.


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Now headed west and making a beeline for Fort Lauderdale… Cat 3, 115MPH.


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[AtlanticWind]

Hwrf just had Grace eye go right over my place as a major

[IcyTundra]

ECMWF has it going over the northern portion of Hispanola with the remnants heading for the Gulf.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Welp, the HWRF is definitely entertaining.

[sma10]

https://i.postimg.cc/qMFrh9h8/hwrf-sat-IR-07-L-20.png
Welp, the HWRF is definitely entertaining.

The HWRF with the $50B disaster

[storminabox]

https://i.postimg.cc/qMFrh9h8/hwrf-sat-IR-07-L-20.png
Welp, the HWRF is definitely entertaining.

The HWRF with the $50B disaster

No surprises there

[AtlanticWind]

I am tending to lean to the Hwrf for path( intensity who knows) because I think Grace is moving more wnw
and is going to clear Hispanola.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I am tending to lean to the Hwrf for path( intensity who knows) because I think Grace is moving more wnw
and is going to clear Hispanola.

We are going to find out real soon who is right.

[AtlanticWind]

I am tending to lean to the Hwrf for path( intensity who knows) because I think Grace is moving more wnw
and is going to clear Hispanola.

We are going to find out real soon who is right.

Just to clarify I dont think its going to clear by as much as the HWRF is showing
Think its going to ride just offshore of the big Island.
But this a close call and definitely would not be suprised if it burys itself in Hispanola.

[jlauderdal]

Welp, the HWRF is definitely entertaining.

Its been wrong so many times, it will be right at some point.