ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cyclenall]

Gigantic eyewall emerging...

I like how thin the eyewall is at 20N . Imagine how crazy Larry would be if that entire large eye was cleared out, let's have.

[Keldeo1997]

Who ordered the XXXL Chocolate Donut?

[kevin]

Now it's just getting even more crazy, it almost looks like the jaws of a monster. The eye is very ragged and non-circular atm, but the diameter of the long axis is 100 miles (160 km). I know Carmen and Winnie both has 230 mile eyes, but I don't know if something like this has happened in the Atlantic. At least in recent times I can't really think of a good comparison.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Incredible eye size...

[AlphaToOmega]

Larry has fluctuated at Category III intensity for a while, but with the eyewall replacement cycle nearly complete, it should start intensifying shortly. One thing that is concerning is that Newfoundland is in the cone of uncertainty.

[aspen]

A low-level NOAA research mission will be heading out sometime today, according to the 5am discussion. It’ll be very interesting to see what they find. I have a feeling they might find that Larry isn’t a major, due to how broad the wind field is.

[aspen]

This is nearly annular now. If the CDO is able to smooth out, Larry could become a Cat 4.

[kevin]

The eye is becoming more circular again and Larry is shedding his outer layers. Looks like Larry's annular phase is beginning, the left side is already there but the right side still needs to contract a bit.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC discussion confirms that Larry is an annular hurricane. When was the last time we've had an annular hurricane in the Atlantic? Isabel 2003?

[TallyTracker]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3981/se4sJF.gif

That is an absolutely gorgeous hurricane! I did not expect the predictions of essentially an annular hurricane in the Atlantic to materialize.

[Iceresistance]

NHC discussion confirms that Larry is an annular hurricane. When was the last time we've had an annular hurricane in the Atlantic? Isabel 2003?

It also has a 60 Nautical Mile wide eye per NHC, it's converted to around 70 miles . . .

To put that into perspective, that's about the same distance from Oklahoma City, OK to Weatherford, OK on I-40!

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane flying. Follow the mission at the Larry Recon Thread

[ScottNAtlanta]

I keep looking at the WV loop and I dont see what is supposed to be the weakness. I see the low coming through the NE US but it doesn't seem to be digging very far south. Is steering harder to predict with annular storms?

[grapealcoholic]

Eye contracting -- serious intensification phase possible here.

[ThetaE]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3981/se4sJF.gif

Cirrus outflow suggests that shear has weakened a lot, and it's shown in the improvements Larry's made today. I suspect when the NOAA plane arrives that Larry will have a deeper pressure than 956 mb but 100-105 kt winds. I think it's pretty hard to judge how typical rules of thumb hold up to a large annular storm like Larry, especially since these storms are so rare in the Atlantic.

Then again, the NHC is scarily good at intensity estimates of storms in the open ocean when recon is eventually deployed (I remember being surprised by how close they were with Teddy last year).

[Zonacane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3981/se4sJF.gif

Cirrus outflow suggests that shear has weakened a lot, and it's shown in the improvements Larry's made today. I suspect when the NOAA plane arrives that Larry will have a deeper pressure than 956 mb but 100-105 kt winds. I think it's pretty hard to judge how typical rules of thumb hold up to a large annular storm like Larry, especially since these storms are so rare in the Atlantic.

Then again, the NHC is scarily good at intensity estimates of storms in the open ocean when recon is eventually deployed (I remember being surprised by how close they were with Teddy last year).

The NHC is the best tropical cyclone forecasting agency in the world

[Teban54]

Cloud tops to the east are cooling again and almost establishing a B ring. You gotta give Larry credit for these constant attempts at intensification even if not all of them succeed.

[grapealcoholic]

Cat 4 as soon as it can contract a little more