ATL: DANNY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

So why not bother classifying it? If it meets criteria, is not scientifically dishonest to ignore it?

The problem with this statement is that naming a system is, by definition, subjective. We basically made up what makes a TD, TS, and Hurricane. I maintain they do the best job of anyone, but it can be fun to second guess, as long as it's respectful.

[Hammy]

This will go in my track archive whether it's officially upgraded or not. Circulation being closed seems pretty clear cut, and it probably should've been investigated earlier today given it was already wrapping up yesterday.

[Sciencerocks]

I've also added it in mine.

[toad strangler]

Anybody bored yet?

[Sciencerocks]

[Cat5James]

Anybody bored yet?

http://i.ibb.co/vv1Qwmt/two-atl-5d0.png

and this is supposed to be the "slower" part of the season... peak season will be more than interesting!

[aspen]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/263/91vUbg.gif

This might be making landfall by sunrise.

What a waste of scheduling recon. Then again, it’s not like there’s any other storm requiring attention.

[Ubuntwo]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/263/91vUbg.gif

This might be making landfall by sunrise.

What a waste of scheduling recon. Then again, it’s not like there’s any other storm requiring attention.

18z GFS has it almost 100 miles offshore by the scheduled fix time, so recon will be able to make at least a couple passes. They also relocated so the travel should be very quick.

[LarryWx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/263/91vUbg.gif

This might be making landfall by sunrise.

What a waste of scheduling recon. Then again, it’s not like there’s any other storm requiring attention.

More like toward sunset. But still it should have been today imo.

[Nuno]

So why not bother classifying it? If it meets criteria, is not scientifically dishonest to ignore it?

The problem with this statement is that naming a system is, by definition, subjective. We basically made up what makes a TD, TS, and Hurricane. I maintain they do the best job of anyone, but it can be fun to second guess, as long as it's respectful.

Yeah thats my point usually, so with all the technology at our disposal, I suppose I don't get the rationale unless they have another reason? It's just interesting to think about, they are the NHC at the end of the day

[Ubuntwo]

Convection redeveloping over the center with some rainbands now. Looks better than two thirds of the systems this year

[Sciencerocks]

Wow, that is a rebus LLC and it is mostly under the convection. It could make landfall as a tropical storm at this rate once recon collects the data. IMO

[AlphaToOmega]

1. A small low pressure system is located about 300 miles
east-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, with most of it
displaced to the northwest of the surface center due to strong
upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move quickly
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing over the warmer waters
of the Gulf Stream later this morning, and it has some potential to
become a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the
coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina by this evening. If the
system becomes more organized today, then tropical storm warnings
could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few inches
of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and
southern South Carolina through tonight. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking pretty good right now. Good chance of a TC before landfall I would think.

[aspen]

This is 100% a tropical depression. Look at the naked swirl on visible satellite imagery.

There should be a special advisory to upgrade this ASAP. It doesn’t have much time before landfall.

[ChrisH-UK]

96L has become decoupled over night with the convective development been to the west and circulation been to the east.

GOES-16 Meso Sector Red and Clean IR Band 11:20UTC

[Shell Mound]

This is 100% a tropical depression. Look at the naked swirl on visible satellite imagery.

There should be a special advisory to upgrade this ASAP. It doesn’t have much time before landfall.

The LLC is certainly much more well defined than Claudette’s ever was during the latter’s landfall. Classify Colin ‘16 and Claudette yet not this...? Conundrum.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 190 miles
east-southeast of Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the center.
However, any additional increase in organization of the thunderstorm
activity would result in the issuance of advisories for a tropical
depression or tropical storm later this morning or afternoon. The
low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and the
system should reach the coast of southern South Carolina or Georgia
by this evening. If advisories are initiated, then tropical storm
warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South
Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few
inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia
and southern South Carolina through Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve
Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon.

...

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[HurricaneEnzo]

Probably could have been classified last night but looking a bit too sheared now imo. Gonna need a convective burst near the center to have a chance. Wonder why they didn't tag it at least a PTC?

[MGC]

Naked swirl.....no TC at this time. Convection needed near center....MGC