ATL: GRACE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.postimg.cc/mDfGcDsH/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-60.png
2004? This would be the third Florida landfall if the ICON had its way.

Seems to be agreeing with the Euro ensembles so it seems that the GFS is on an island by itself going over Hispaniola while the Euro and Icon are in the Bahamas heading W to WNW

[Mouton]

Interesting, the 12 0Z takes a minimum TS into the area near Naples on the Fl SW coast and then onto Tampa Bay deeping a tad while crawling up the west coast and dropping humongous amounts of rain. It then makes a west! turn into the GOM slightly north of Tampa to south of Panama City. Kind of like a drunk driver

[Cat5James]

Why am I seeing local news networks (John Morales) share spaghetti models completely omitting both the GFS and Euro? Are these not the two major global models? Would love to hear theories on this.

[SoupBone]

Why am I seeing local news networks (John Morales) share spaghetti models completely omitting both the GFS and Euro? Are these not the two major global models? Would love to hear theories on this.

For 95L? Probably because it's just under 2 weeks away from any sort of impact, wherever it goes. Too many variables for them to start really trying to get people's attention.

[AxaltaRacing24]

HMON

[AubreyStorm]

HMON

Link…!!! Please

[AtlanticWind]

HMON with stronger 997 mb storm coming into the islands, HWRF a little stronger so far

[AxaltaRacing24]

HMON

Link…!!! Please

[Hurricaneman]

Seems as though the models are playing catch-up with the development of this system which seems to be common the last year or 2

[IcyTundra]

Wow the HMON has 95L developing into a TS by hour 30 at 998 MB. I would be surprised if it develops that fast but I do think the global models are a bit too bearish on 95L's future.

[ElectricStorm]

Whoa HMON says it's time to take this seriously

We'll see how this plays out over the next few days...

[AxaltaRacing24]

hr 108

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF coming into the islands much weaker than HMON but they both take the southern route.

[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF coming into the islands much weaker than HMON but they both take the southern route.

For PR's sake, I'd hope the HMON is way off.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF coming into the islands much weaker than HMON but they both take the southern route.

For PR's sake, I'd hope the HMON is way off.

It likely will be but yeah that's definitely a doom run for PR

Meanwhile the HWRF shows an open wave

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is how it ends...

[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF coming into the islands much weaker than HMON but they both take the southern route.

For PR's sake, I'd hope the HMON is way off.

It likely will be but yeah that's definitely a doom run for PR

Meanwhile the HWRF shows an open wave

I mean, it's under 5 days out, the wave looks good, and it is getting later into August. So definitely something to watch. We shall see if this was a fluke run, or if the HMON shows continuity.

[Hurricaneman]

The op Euro seems to be slowly coming aboard

[ElectricStorm]

For PR's sake, I'd hope the HMON is way off.

It likely will be but yeah that's definitely a doom run for PR

Meanwhile the HWRF shows an open wave

I mean, it's under 5 days out, the wave looks good, and it is getting later into August. So definitely something to watch. We shall see if this was a fluke run, or if the HMON shows continuity.

It's definitely got some potential for sure

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro runs it into the shredder.