ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kohlecane]

Not to say it wouldn't be able to develop anyway as the seas are warm enough for that in the Central Gulf but at least the SST's have been knocked down a couple degrees from Ida's up-welling. That and only marginal UL conditions could help slow any potential strengthening.

Where is this other storm, in the Caribbean now?

If you are referring to the one GCANE was talking about

Besides the potential GOM system next week, I would watch the western Caribbean late next week into next weekend.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433798234196094979

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433800123444776966

It's on pg 62 of Global models thread, if that is what you were asking

[psyclone]

Like Ida, we've seen a massive shift in expectations of where this system will go...lean right. At least this one looks weak as of now...

[ElectricStorm]

At first I didn't think this one had much of a chance, but now that everything has shifted east it'll have much more time over the gulf. Conditions don't look too great for it but we all have seen what the storms in the gulf have done this year, including Fred who nearly became a hurricane despite not great conditions.

This one needs to be watched for sure.

[Coaster]

Request providing the particular Link in Global Models thread that GCANE was referring to.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

A weak surface trough over portions of the western Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. The disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then moved northward or
northeastward over the western or central Gulf of Mexico Monday and
Tuesday. Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit
development through Monday, but environmental conditions could
become marginally favorable for some gradual development on Tuesday
or Wednesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central
America through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Nimbus]

Not much left of the current trough in the gulf and 91L will be working its way back over the warm BOC tonight and tomorrow.
If there is a surface low with any kind of gradient we should see convection near the center then.
Apparently the models have that second trough pulling this east over Florida but there could be a period of low shear long enough for this to become a problem.
The wave off South America isn't doing much yet but once we get within the 10 day forecast window there is less chance this is just a model ghost.

[xironman]

Decent gyre now. Can anything consolidate with the winds? Seems unlikely but it is the BOC

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1434267586242519045



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1434268418719600642

[OuterBanker]

Hmm, gfs,euro,cmc all show a similar scenario. Different times. La, Fl panhandle, Ga coastrider to obx. Luckily all are weak.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic less than 1000
miles east of the Leeward Islands.

A weak surface trough over portions of the western Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico interacting with an upper-level trough located over the
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then move slowly northward
or northeastward over the western or central Gulf of Mexico Monday
and Tuesday. Upper-level winds are only expected to be marginally
conducive for development of this system through Wednesday,
followed by unfavorable environmental conditions thereafter.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America
through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[MGC]

NHC has the right idea, getting its act together in the north gulf. This plus the next one mid month is making the gulf coast look like a tropical punching bag.....MGC

[galvbay]

Mid month? Please explain

***This plus the next one mid month is making the gulf coast look like a tropical punching bag.....MGC****

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON operational models all show development within the next five days. I am not sure why the NHC is keeping this at 30%.

[Iceresistance]

Mid month? Please explain

***This plus the next one mid month is making the gulf coast look like a tropical punching bag.....MGC****

There is another system that might show up in the GoM between September 14th & 18th, there is model consistency with this system to go to the GoM, but the strength is anyone's guess . . .

[Sciencerocks]

The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON operational models all show development within the next five days. I am not sure why the NHC is keeping this at 30%.

I'd go 50% over the next 5 days. I'd be shocked if we don't see at least a broad LLC at some point.

[hipshot]

Not to say it wouldn't be able to develop anyway as the seas are warm enough for that in the Central Gulf but at least the SST's have been knocked down a couple degrees from Ida's up-welling. That and only marginal UL conditions could help slow any potential strengthening.

Where is this other storm, in the Caribbean now?

If you are referring to the one GCANE was talking about

Besides the potential GOM system next week, I would watch the western Caribbean late next week into next weekend.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433798234196094979

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433800123444776966

It's on pg 62 of Global models thread, if that is what you were asking

I guess, I'm not familiar with the models or the models thread but it sounded kind of ominous.

[TampaBayBee]

Request providing the particular Link in Global Models thread that GCANE was referring to.

Link to p. 62 in Global Models:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121679&start=1220

[SoupBone]

The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON operational models all show development within the next five days. I am not sure why the NHC is keeping this at 30%.

I think the simple answer is that the models are not the end all of the tropics forecasts and the humans that interpret their outputs take all data into account rather than a singular models forecast.

[Hurricane Mike]

I notice some rotation over the Yucatan, and extreme thunderstorms and lightning over Guatemala.