ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

I would be shocked ... like Capt. Louis Renault in Casablanca talking about gambling shocked ... if this thing doesn't get upgraded to Fred at 5 p.m. Everything looks good to me as far as this being a TS (though not yet a strong one)

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/JDMHxIoqbQg[/youtube]

[SFLcane]

I would be shocked ... like Capt. Louis Renault in Casablanca talking about gambling shocked ... if this thing doesn't get upgraded to Fred at 5 p.m. Everything looks good to me as far as this being a TS (though not yet a strong one)

No recon more then likely at 11pm tonight

[ElectricStorm]

No TS yet on BT
06L SIX 210810 1800 16.6N 64.8W ATL 30 1012

Of course NHC could change that at the next advisory if they want.

[Blown Away]

I am thinking 17.1N 64.5W

Agree, could ramp up to strong TS/Cat before skimming PR. JMHO

[tolakram]

Can't be upgraded until 11 at the earliest. I have a prediction to win.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1425166617340637187

[SFLcane]

Best it’s ever looked on satellite Now getting that S look. Convection now on the south side.

[GCANE]

Looks like LL convergence as it approaches PR is increasing due frictional effects.
Likely will see this ramp up more quickly now as it gets closer to the island.
If it skirts the south shore, this could be pretty dramatic.

[Jr0d]

It has really pulled itself together.the couple of hours. What is most impressive is this happened during DMIN.

It likely has tropical storm winds, but I don't know if the NHC will upgrade until there is proof of a closed low. I am certain this will be Fred when upgraded as it likely already has tropical storm winds, even if the low has not closed off.

[Woofde]

Obviously satellite imagery can be misleading, but it certainly looks more like a closed system than it did at 11.

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[HurricaneEnzo]

A beaut.



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[Blown Away]

2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 10
Location: 16.6°N 64.8°W

JMHO, I think we are seeing the LLC forming near 17.0N/64.5W, just NE of the 2pm position.

[GCANE]

Persistent hot tower with tons of helicity.
Game On.

[Weatherboy1]

I would be shocked ... like Capt. Louis Renault in Casablanca talking about gambling shocked ... if this thing doesn't get upgraded to Fred at 5 p.m. Everything looks good to me as far as this being a TS (though not yet a strong one)

No recon more then likely at 11pm tonight

I would normally agree if that was the path of least resistance and land that could be impacted wasn't close by. But PR getting close. Radar presentation has improved notably the last couple hours. And most importantly (to me), the only thing that was missing (a CDO-type feature/a few hours of strong convection firing over a potential "center") is no longer missing. Ergo, think it gets upgraded at 5. We'll see soon enough!

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I'm guessing it might be closed off now and ready for a name. May get the upgrade at 5 but almost certainly today or tonight

[Aric Dunn]

Recent radar and surface ob trends should pretty much do it for an upgrade.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06L has definitely done a good job at sustaining convection today, instead of the ebb-and-flow we see with many weak systems.

Probably TS Fred at this point.

[AutoPenalti]

Surface Obs likely going to show a sharp wave axis despite it's presentation until dry air diminishes.

[tolakram]

saved loop