ATL: ELSA - Models

[StormTracker]

HWRF 18Z
https://i.imgur.com/Jt9ftC9.gif

Literally a wanna-be Irma

You read my mind!

[gatorcane]

[Blown Away]

Based on the 00z early models, the NHC is becoming an outlier off the Florida west coast... I think we will see a conservative move E with NHC track very near or into Florida Keys and SW Florida.

Based on tonight I would not put E of Florida off the table...

[Jr0d]

Hopefully the data from NOAA's upper air sampling mission will be in tomorrow morning's computer runs.

The HWRF nailed the 'struggle' we are seeing tonight. Overnight and into the morning it was showing Elsa consolidate then have another cycle of 'struggling' south of Haiti followed by explosive strengthening nas it approaches Cuba....

At this point it is tough to bet against the HWRF.

[Spacecoast]

GFS ensembles trending more, and more sparse....

[OuterBanker]

Still two camps. The gfs would be the best outcome with a weak td of or ts into the big bend and dying. Worst would be east of fla after threading the needle between Haiti and Cuba and regeneration becoming a coast rider.

[Steve]

Hard to say which camp wins out. MJO is in Phase 2, but only the Japanese model keeps it there for a few days. It's generally one of the more reliable MJO models. Most of the others move it back toward the circle either inside or on the line at Phase 3. Phase 3 is still hyperactive, but it's not really amplified this pass through even though there is amplification across the eastern US. We're getting t-storms now from the front which is what's going to pull Elsa up. NAM 12km has a nondescript, closed low moving toward SWFL. Elsa is still out of range for the 60 hour FV3. NAM 3km likes a central Cuba solution and would tend to move out toward southern FL or to its east. NAMs aren't reliable for tracking in those latitudes. Landfall should be in range by tomorrow's 00z runs for the NAMs and FV3 high resolution.

00z ICON kills it again but drags a low center across southern Cuba before absorbing into the westerlies. ?

GFS next, then CMC then hurricane models.

[eastcoastFL]

Hopefully the data from NOAA's upper air sampling mission will be in tomorrow morning's computer runs.

The HWRF nailed the 'struggle' we are seeing tonight. Overnight and into the morning it was showing Elsa consolidate then have another cycle of 'struggling' south of Haiti followed by explosive strengthening nas it approaches Cuba....

At this point it is tough to bet against the HWRF.

While everything could change you’re right. HWRF has been locked in on track and even intensity for the most part. It even under did the intensity for this morning when Elsa became a hurricane. It’s looking less likely that DR takes a hit now and Stewart mentioned that the HWRF track and intensity could play out.

[blp]

00z GFS even weaker than 18z.

[Blown Away]

Clip From NHC 11pm Disco: The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone, which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening.

00z GFS keeps Elsa very weak which is similar to previous few GFS runs... NHC seeing something we aren’t...

[AutoPenalti]

GFS says this becomes a TD by tonight into tomorrow.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS looks way off. I really don't see how this would weaken to a TD before hitting the islands...

[hurricane2025]

Euro been weak, icon, cmc, conditions just aren’t that favorable yet. Now gfs showing weak weak.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro been weak, icon, cmc, conditions just aren’t that favorable yet. Now gfs showing weak weak.

Idk man. This sure doesn't look like it's becoming a TD in 24 hours. We will find out.

[StPeteMike]

Only way this becomes a TD that fast is an out of the blue amount of shear or it starts moving 50 mph. What’s giving the models these issues? Many were doing fine, besides the EURO.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Only way this becomes a TD that fast is an out of the blue amount of shear or it starts moving 50 mph. What’s giving the models these issues? Many were doing fine, besides the EURO.

Might be the same issues as in 2020. Hopefully not.

[StPeteMike]

Only way this becomes a TD that fast is an out of the blue amount of shear or it starts moving 50 mph. What’s giving the models these issues? Many were doing fine, besides the EURO.

Might be the same issues as in 2020. Hopefully not.

Last year, if I remember correctly, a lot had to do with the lack of data on the upper level environment from the airplanes. Like I said, GFS was doing pretty Thursday into early Friday with models than all the sudden they started going bonkers. Something about this storm, maybe the speed and how that’s affecting the LLC and MLC, is causing many of them now to be confused.

[Steve]

GFS hits between PCB and Cape San Blas Wed am as a mid grade 995 TS. CMC has a semi weak bounce off SFL from the south. Eh. It still prefers strengthening on the Atlantic side of Florida and hits SE NC before moving inland and then heading back offshore.

[Steve]

JMA has a weak swirl over western Cuba in 72 hours. Trend looks to be weaker overall. Most models have that. We’ll see what the hurricanes do over the next hour or so.

[eastcoastFL]

GFS hits between PCB and Cape San Blas Wed am as a mid grade 995 TS. CMC has a semi weak bounce off SFL from the south. Eh. It still prefers strengthening on the Atlantic side of Florida and hits SE NC before moving inland and then heading back offshore.

I just wish I could make sense out of it. Do you have any Hi res shots of the GFS? It’s hard to tell if it touches Hispaniola or Jamaica which could be what causes the weakening. It’s the only thing that really makes sense because conditions are supposed to be pretty good and the NHC expects less favorable conditions in the eastern gulf but the GFS strengthens it there soooo….there’s gotta be something we aren’t seeing that’s causing this.