ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

12Z MSLP analysis from the GFS, CMC, ECMWF, and ICON all show a closed low where Grace used to be; so Grace was at one point a tropical storm. ASCAT analysis seems to show a very sharp wave with only southeasterly flow missing. Maybe there is something I am missing about why the NHC continues to say this is a tropical cyclone.

[hipshot]

well crud...sure hope it stays a storm!

i wonder if SpaceX is worried.

What does "i wonder if SpaceX is worried" mean?

All this outside
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLTncjUbQtI

And a launch this month.

Oh, but a long way to go before then. It does kind of stick out down there doesn't?

[Senobia]

NHC put the center at 17.3N/66.8W at 18Z. Definitely nothing there according to recon. They'll have to adjust their track southward.

Are you thinking it will interact with the Yucatan?

Definitely, as a wave it could bring squalls to the northern Yucatan Thu/Fri. I'm anxious to see what the NHC does at 4pm. They can't keep their current track. It's way south of that track and it's not even a TS. Fast-moving waves often produce 40-45 mph winds, but they're not called tropical storms because they lack a well-defined circulation.

Their track shifted South and West.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427023799770222593

[Keldeo1997]

Its Alive

[MarioProtVI]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/875844323105734656/876593698471813160/recon_AF302-0307A-GRACE.png

Its Alive

Barely. MSLP is still 1011 or so - very weak. Can also reform if the center becomes broad enough

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/875844323105734656/876593698471813160/recon_AF302-0307A-GRACE.png

Its Alive

Huh, the NHC’s 5pm position was pretty close…for now. Like Mario said, this weak center could reform somewhere else.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

well crud...sure hope it stays a storm!

i wonder if SpaceX is worried.

What does "i wonder if SpaceX is worried" mean?

Off-topic: SpaceX has the largest rocket ever built on the launch pad completely exposed along the TX/Mexico border.

[hipshot]

well crud...sure hope it stays a storm!

i wonder if SpaceX is worried.

What does "i wonder if SpaceX is worried" mean?

Off-topic: SpaceX has the largest rocket ever built on the launch pad completely exposed along the TX/Mexico border.

Off-topic: Oh yeah, I forgot about that. And I don't think they can just roll it back since it was put together on the launch pad.

[tropicwatch]

Not sure why they are still calling Grace a depression. HH has found several 35kt. surface winds.

[StormPyrate]

well crud...sure hope it stays a storm!

i wonder if SpaceX is worried.

What does "i wonder if SpaceX is worried" mean?

Off-topic: SpaceX has the largest rocket ever built on the launch pad completely exposed along the TX/Mexico border.

Currently the booster is in the high bay, only the star ship is outside, and they can roll it in quickly

[GCANE]

60 mm/hr rain rate reported by recon.
Grace is strengthening

[NDG]

Plenty of evidence found by recon to upgrade it back to a TS.
I am really surprised that they found a fairly good closed circulation despite being caught in the low level easterlies.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Fred and Grace have overperformed today.

[aspen]

Grace actually isn’t looking that bad tonight. Sure the center is still disorganized with quite high pressure for a TC, but the convective structure doesn’t totally look like garbage; it also seems somewhat organized.

Also it’s still not gaining much latitude, if any.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/DTwAM3zg-t8[/youtube]

[eastcoastFL]

Grace is our first big swing in track this year. From Florida to Mexico in 2 day

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricaneman]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1820/1LCWW1.gif

For the first time I can say this has decent banding

[tiger_deF]

For what it's worth, the 850 and 500 mb vorticity have been steadily improving over the last few hours