ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IcyTundra]

Nicholas may make a run at cat 1 75-80 mph possibly.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's running out of time to tighten up before landfall. I will gladly take the L on my 65kt prediction.

Stay safe everyone

May have spoken too soon. I'm tired of these dang storms ramping up right before plowing into land

[ElectricStorm]

Pressure is dropping big time. Hopefully it landfalls before the winds can catch up but it's gonna be close...

[aspen]

Wow that’s a 10 mb drop between recon flights…from a storm that looks like Santa’s severed and horribly shaven beard. Who would’ve guessed a system without a well-structured core would intensify at a similar rate, even for a brief time frame, as Ida?

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 96.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

From NHC

"Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next few hours, and Nicholas could become a hurricane when it
reaches the Texas coast."

[ROCK]

988MB he is going Humberto....

[sikkar]

999.8 mb at the bouy. Also registered 53kt gusting to 68kts not too long ago.

[Hammy]

From NHC

"Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next few hours, and Nicholas could become a hurricane when it
reaches the Texas coast."

Kind of surprised they don't have a hurricane warning up at this point.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow, definitely an unexpected spurt of development happening with Nicholas this evening.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's barely even moving on radar

[aspen]

Nicholas’ Instantaneous Cyclone Energy (ICE) score doubled from 6.21 units at the 5pm advisory to 13.03 units at the 8pm intermediate advisory. Odds are it’ll be a minimal Cat 1 at landfall. I’m very surprised by the amount of strengthening that took place between flights.

[ROCK]

From NHC

"Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next few hours, and Nicholas could become a hurricane when it
reaches the Texas coast."

Kind of surprised they don't have a hurricane warning up at this point.

agree but not much difference..70 to 75

[Nimbus]

About 10% of Matagorda county without power and with 60+ knot gusts on the beaches its not going to be fun.

[loon]

Looks like it's barely even moving on radar

noticed this too.. but hard to tell what we can see. i swear its even going back out into the GOM but i blame 24 hours a day screen watching.

[capNstorms]

in Beaumont here, looks like intensification is ramping up on IR, those cloud tops to the E are getting even higher and that nasty rain band on radar will likely cause minor to major flash flooding in SETX

[IcyTundra]

Shades of Humberto interestingly Humberto made landfall 14 years ago today. Ike made landfall 13 years ago today so September 13th seems to be a common date for Texas landfalls.

[Clearcloudz]

Checking in from Rosenberg TX. so far disappointed with this storm only 1 inch of rain here and now the sun is peaking through the clouds. Hopefully my grass and garden can get at least 5 inches of rain tonight.

[KatDaddy]

Here in NW Galveston County we have light rain and breezy conditions. So far 3.2”. An interesting night ahead.

[grapealcoholic]

Nick is a fighter.. Sally vibes. Don't write these storms off