ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Dropsonde keeps missing the true CoC.

[GCANE]

LL Vort will likely get shredded but mid-level vort may survive and reform a LL vort in the Straits.

[beoumont]

From the Personification perspective of tropical cyclone behavior: Fred is currently just trying to stay alive by not being forced inland--so he is paralleling the coast for as long as "possible". UNTIl, the flow trying to stear it wins out. Also,it has been observed that the Barahona Peninsula is a hurricane magnet, and pulls storms towards it. The-the-the- That's all folks.

[N2FSU]

The "Fred is Dead" and "I question if it was ever a Tropical Storm" posts have started early this morning. LOL

[BobHarlem]

The "Fred is Dead" and "I question if it was ever a Tropical Storm" posts have started early this morning. LOL

Sometimes the models are better at predicting these threads than the storms. Wait until Friday.

[NDG]

How much more evidence do some still need that it has had and still has a closed circulation?

[aspen]

45 kt FL winds plus the wide range of SFMR values could support an intensity of 40 kt for the 11am advisory.

[NDG]

Fred's LLC is dancing around the eastern tip of D.R. just like it did when it approached eastern P.R. last night.

[Sciencerocks]

[AutoPenalti]

The MLC is likely dragging the LLC south, LLC trying it's hardest to move away from the mountains.

[Weatherboy1]

I feel like it’s a coin toss as to whether or not Fred can survive Hispaniola. Due to its ugly decoupled structure, a significant burst of convection to the north of the island caused by land friction could cause the center to reform there, yanking the entire storm off to the north and back over water. Or the island could rip apart both the MLC and LLC, and no reformations occur.

I don't know if it's lame to just say "Ditto." But agree with this view here.

[BobHarlem]

The MLC is likely dragging the LLC south, LLC trying it's hardest to move away from the mountains.

8am point is fairly well west relative to the forecast track. Fred probably will move inland at some point, but I'm wondering if it will be on or much closer to the Haiti side now, or it just does the weird island shuffle under Hispaniola.

[Weatherboy1]

Really, the next 12 hours are key for Fred's long-term future. Getting closer and closer to the worst of the terrain in Hispanola, and didn't manage to "jump"/reform N/NW yet. Probably worth just turning off the computer and logging back in tonight to see if anything's left (not that any of us will do that, of course! LOL)

[AutoPenalti]

It's slowed down considerably since yesterday.

[Sciencerocks]

It's slowed down considerably since yesterday.

If this makes landfall in DR and heads down the center of the island and moves through Cuba this may not survive as a cyclone into the gulf. Sure, it may redevelop but things don't look good for it if that is the truck it takes.

[AutoPenalti]

Eyeballed the LLC and marked where it is in proximity to Pico Duarte.

[beoumont]

Kind of looks like Fred the duck or do-do bird

[Dean4Storms]

It's forward speed has slowed for sure this morning and you can bet it suddenly encountered a major slowing of wind flowing into it's northern periphery. I'd imagine the in flow from its southern periphery tugged it more westerly in its forward motion, at least temporarily. Wouldn't surprise me if it dives more WSW for a spell.

[Chemmers]

Looks like it is doing it very best to try and keep away from the mountains

[InfernoFlameCat]

Kind of looks like Fred the duck or do-do bird
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/j28yfPVF/duck.jpg [/url]

Very much reminds me of Elsa with the structure and location. Has that massive blob trailing the partially exposed center.