ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/SalvadorReports/status/1425505030371692563

[Kohlecane]

I must be on the wrong thread, I thought this was about Fred but seems to be the wxman 57 thread.

I thought it was Wallstreetbets for a second

[ConvergenceZone]

I must be on the wrong thread, I thought this was about Fred but seems to be the wxman 57 thread.

Yea you are right, so I took it to "private messages" instead for the discussions.....

[Kohlecane]

Did anyone see Joe Bastardi's tweet yesterday about the enhanced MJO phase for Fred. I skimmed through and didn't see it, it was around the time the 500 error was going on. Was just curious if anyone cared to weigh in on it.

[Craters]

Stepping back and looking at the big picture, Fred is so tiny you can barely make him out. With the convection firing off to the north over the Atlantic, really just looks like a strong wave axis with an embedded low. No concern from me on Fred still, just a typical weak storm / wave which can be expected this time of year. Rain chances increase for Florida for the weekend.

https://i.postimg.cc/4dMR6tnF/goes16-vis-swir-atl.gif

When I zoom out, I see a trough axis too that goes to about 25N. I do not see how the LLC can survive, even if it stays south and remains intact past Hispaniola, it will run into Cuba's eastern mountains.

The HWRF is now showing the low jump north over Hispaniola, but keeps what's left of Fred ragged...at least until tomorrow.

I do not see Fred surviving unless the center relocates north, with the trough axis associated with Fred extending well north of Hispaniola this is a possibility, though I think it will most likely ripped apart and will be an open wave until it reaches S Florida/the Straits where it might have a window to redevelop.

Here's a question: Assume that the big island(s) take out whatever LLC exists and a fairly decent remnant of the MLC survives to get back out over the water. Wouldn't it give the MLC a better chance to work down to the surface without having to compete with the offset vorticity of the former LLC?

I'm just trying to put this stuff together in me noggin...

[AdamFirst]

https://twitter.com/SalvadorReports/status/1425505030371692563

Man, what an intense open wave!!!!!!!!

[NDG]

Did anyone see Joe Bastardi's tweet yesterday about the enhanced MJO phase for Fred. I skimmed through and didn't see it, it was around the time the 500 error was going on. Was just curious if anyone cared to weigh in on it.

That's the part that I am having a hard time believing that Fred will have that much shear when we are in a favorable phase of the MJO when UL divergence comes in naturally for tropical systems .

[Sciencerocks]

[jlauderdal]

https://twitter.com/SalvadorReports/status/1425505030371692563

Man, what an intense open wave!!!!!!!!

put that roof or whatever you want to call it out of its misery if it cant handle this system

[AdamFirst]

https://twitter.com/SalvadorReports/status/1425505030371692563

Man, what an intense open wave!!!!!!!!

put that roof or whatever you want to call it out of its misery if it cant handle this system

To be fair it was probably secured by tie wraps or some flimsy substandard materials. But the other videos I've seen out of Santo Domingo look like some pretty strong gusts.

[jlauderdal]

Did anyone see Joe Bastardi's tweet yesterday about the enhanced MJO phase for Fred. I skimmed through and didn't see it, it was around the time the 500 error was going on. Was just curious if anyone cared to weigh in on it.

It's tough to find his weather tweets as they are drowned out by his political tweets.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/ListinDiario/status/1425515225067962372

[jlauderdal]

Man, what an intense open wave!!!!!!!!

put that roof or whatever you want to call it out of its misery if it cant handle this system

To be fair it was probably secured by tie wraps or some flimsy substandard materials. But the other videos I've seen out of Santo Domingo look like some pretty strong gusts.

Whatever it was secured with certainly isn't enough for the tropics and hopefully no one looks at that video and thinks Fred is a "strong" system. I have a friend going to the DR tomorrow for DR type activities and will have him send some damage photos and will post here

[tolakram]

Did anyone see Joe Bastardi's tweet yesterday about the enhanced MJO phase for Fred. I skimmed through and didn't see it, it was around the time the 500 error was going on. Was just curious if anyone cared to weigh in on it.

It's tough to find his weather tweets as they are drowned out by his political tweets.

Let's not go into another Bastardi rant (to everyone, not you) I have to take down. I watched his paid weatherbell video and the 5 minutes that were worth it I enjoy, that is his thoughts on how the models miss mjo transitions and we end up with surprise storms with the models missing the transition in background states. He's made this point for a number of years and it seems to verify quite nicely. We'll see this year.

[NDG]

All weather reporting stations have now stopped reporting in DR, I guess their internal service either failed or lost power.

[psyclone]

Orographic lift is certainly enhancing that land based convection. Probably some insane rain rates on those south facing slopes. TC hazards are so much greater in mountainous areas, even weak ones

[toad strangler]

Man, right into the teeth of the island …..

[StormPyrate]

Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now .......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy ...

I find his observations to be accurate more times than not, refreshing over the -removed- that happens here

They are accurate as long as the forecast is "bearish" for a particular storm, then yes, you are 100% correct...

Not talking about forecasts, I mean what actually ends up happening.

[galaxy401]

Fred is the best he's looked as he's making landfall. I do wonder if the LLC will even survive. That slower movement could cause problems for it.

[tolakram]

saved loop