ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic

almost certainly ..

pulse down has begun ... 12 more hours pulse back up.. ( assuming environment remains conducive) eye begins to show up on visible as a wobbling dark spot.

fun fun..

[Shell Mound]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic

If that’s the case, then Elsa is currently intensifying faster in the short term than even the HWRF/HMON have forecast up until now. Both models were suggesting MSW of 45 to 50 kt by 06:00 UTC today. So if Elsa is actually nearing hurricane status currently, then it is outperforming the most aggressive solutions by 10 kt or so. This would also suggest a more southerly track in the short to medium term, meaning a track south of Hispaniola and closer to Jamaica would become more plausible. The fact that it has been handling the shear better than I would have expected suggests that a potentially powerful hurricane could occur by 72h (day three), given that Elsa’s forward speed will likely slow significantly by then. At that time the HWRF suggests peak MSW of 115–125 kt. If the short-term intensity is being underestimated, given the fact that shear will be lower in the Caribbean, then Elsa could be as strong as or even stronger than the HWRF suggests.

[weeniepatrol]

TXNT28 KNES 020557
TCSNTL

A. 05L (ELSA)

B. 02/0530Z

C. 12.2N

D. 57.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...9.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET
AND PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 3.5. FT IS BASED ON MET AS BANDING IS NOT
CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Aric Dunn]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic

If that’s the case, then Elsa is currently intensifying faster in the short term than even the HWRF/HMON have forecast up until now. Both models were suggesting MSW of 45 to 50 kt by 06:00 UTC today. So if Elsa is actually nearing hurricane status currently, then it is outperforming the most aggressive solutions by 10 kt or so. This would also suggest a more southerly track in the short to medium term, meaning a track south of Hispaniola and closer to Jamaica would become more plausible. The fact that it has been handling the shear better than I would have expected suggests that a potentially powerful hurricane could occur by 72h (day three), given that Elsa’s forward speed will likely slow significantly by then. At that time the HWRF suggests peak MSW of 115–125 kt. If the short-term intensity is being underestimated, given the fact that shear will be lower in the Caribbean, than Elsa could be as strong as or even stronger than the HWRF suggests.

a solution the HWRF had been showing for a couple of days.. only recently with the addition of crap data has the HWRF changed..

current trends and observations indicate earlier HWRF runs are in play at the moment. ..

[Shell Mound]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic

If that’s the case, then Elsa is currently intensifying faster in the short term than even the HWRF/HMON have forecast up until now. Both models were suggesting MSW of 45 to 50 kt by 06:00 UTC today. So if Elsa is actually nearing hurricane status currently, then it is outperforming the most aggressive solutions by 10 kt or so. This would also suggest a more southerly track in the short to medium term, meaning a track south of Hispaniola and closer to Jamaica would become more plausible. The fact that it has been handling the shear better than I would have expected suggests that a potentially powerful hurricane could occur by 72h (day three), given that Elsa’s forward speed will likely slow significantly by then. At that time the HWRF suggests peak MSW of 115–125 kt. If the short-term intensity is being underestimated, given the fact that shear will be lower in the Caribbean, than Elsa could be as strong as or even stronger than the HWRF suggests.

a solution the HWRF had been showing for a couple of days.. only recently with the addition of crap data has the HWRF changed..

current trends and observations indicate earlier HWRF runs are in play at the moment. ..

Hurricane watches/warnings should be issued for Barbados and adjacent islands in the next advisory-package. I hope everyone there is prepared for a hurricane.

As an aside, Dennis (2005) first became a MH on 7 July. Some models suggest Elsa could become a MH as early as 4 July, becoming July’s strongest TC so early on.

[Kingarabian]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic

almost certainly ..

pulse down has begun ... 12 more hours pulse back up.. ( assuming environment remains conducive) eye begins to show up on visible as a wobbling dark spot.

fun fun..

If it can maintain some deep convection for the next 6 hours then it could get a consensus or average of a T4.0 and force an upgrade before recon.. They'll probably think of hurricane watches/warnings for the islands by then.

[AveryTheComrade]

AL, 05, 2021070206, , BEST, 0, 123N, 573W, 50, 1001, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 40, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 210, 75, 0, 75, genesis-num, 010,

50kt ATCF

[Aric Dunn]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic

almost certainly ..

pulse down has begun ... 12 more hours pulse back up.. ( assuming environment remains conducive) eye begins to show up on visible as a wobbling dark spot.

fun fun..

If it can maintain some deep convection for the next 6 hours then it could get a consensus or average of a T4.0 and force an upgrade before recon.. They'll probably think of hurricane watches/warnings for the islands by then.

it must and will continue to pulse down.. that is the process. then it will ramp up with a stacked circ. and can deepen..

[AveryTheComrade]

Probably 55-60kts now:

02/0530 UTC 12.2N 57.1W T3.5/3.5 ELSA -- Atlantic

almost certainly ..

pulse down has begun ... 12 more hours pulse back up.. ( assuming environment remains conducive) eye begins to show up on visible as a wobbling dark spot.

fun fun..

If it can maintain some deep convection for the next 6 hours then it could get a consensus or average of a T4.0 and force an upgrade before recon.. They'll probably think of hurricane watches/warnings for the islands by then.

Not really relevant, recon leaving in less than an hour

[AtlanticWind]

almost certainly ..

pulse down has begun ... 12 more hours pulse back up.. ( assuming environment remains conducive) eye begins to show up on visible as a wobbling dark spot.

fun fun..

If it can maintain some deep convection for the next 6 hours then it could get a consensus or average of a T4.0 and force an upgrade before recon.. They'll probably think of hurricane watches/warnings for the islands by then.

Not really relevant, recon leaving in less than an hour

Where are they leaving from?

[Mialco]

If it can maintain some deep convection for the next 6 hours then it could get a consensus or average of a T4.0 and force an upgrade before recon.. They'll probably think of hurricane watches/warnings for the islands by then.

Not really relevant, recon leaving in less than an hour

Where are they leaving from?

St Croix I believe

[AveryTheComrade]

If it can maintain some deep convection for the next 6 hours then it could get a consensus or average of a T4.0 and force an upgrade before recon.. They'll probably think of hurricane watches/warnings for the islands by then.

Not really relevant, recon leaving in less than an hour

Where are they leaving from?

VI or St. Croix, I remember the positioning flight on Wednesday but I'm not sure where they went

[Chemmers]

eyelashes clouds are starting to show now, when the recon get there might have to put up hurricane warning to be on the safe side

[USTropics]

Elsa tapping into the moist convective stream from South America, inflow inc:

[galaxy401]

Elsa looks really good on that loop there. Really starting to get that hurricane "look". The Caribbean islands should prepare for a possible hurricane hit.

[Blown Away]

It appears Elsa is on the NHC track or just slightly N of the track as she approaches Barbados. This puts Elsa already on the N edge of the current model suite.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Elsa is starting to ventilate quite well, especially on the north side.

[AveryTheComrade]

It appears Elsa is on the NHC track or just slightly N of the track as she approaches Barbados. This puts Elsa already on the N edge of the current model suite.

Doesn't seem likely that it will stay that way though if it really is as intense as it looks

[Shell Mound]

It appears Elsa is on the NHC track or just slightly N of the track as she approaches Barbados. This puts Elsa already on the N edge of the current model suite.

One thing to watch is models’ handling of the trough over the Northeastern U.S. by 48h (day two). The past five runs of the EPS and GEFS suites have trended toward a deeper, more negatively tilted long-wave trough during this timeframe. While Elsa is likely to be stronger in the short term, the trend toward a deeper, more negatively tilted trough also implies less shortwave mid-level ridging between Elsa and the trough axis. In other words, the deep-layer flow has gone from a zonal to a more meridional orientation over the past five runs. This would imply that a deeper Elsa may, in fact, tend to make a sharper turn earlier, given that ridging is no longer expected to be as strong while Elsa nears Hispaniola. So while Elsa is likely to become a hurricane later today and become even stronger over the eastern Caribbean Sea, it is now more likely to turn earlier toward Hispaniola, given the trend toward weaker ridging on the EPS/GEFS. However, a stronger Elsa would also tend to move more slowly, so much depends on how quickly the trough lifts out. The trough is also expected to deposit a cutoff low over the northern Gulf Coast, which could also allow a potent Elsa to lift northward over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1410866696261451776



 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1410869581183340545



 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1410849994828128257

[Kingarabian]

NHC's fix puts the center a bit west of the coldest inner convection which wouldn't support those higher Dvorak numbers. I guess we gotta wait and see for Recon to find out what's what. Its forward speed is screwing everything up (for the better!) in terms of organization, but it has made significant progress considering how it looked 24 hours ago. I would still put hurricane watches up to be safe.

AMSR2 pass: