EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 90, 2021050712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1020W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, SPAWNINVEST, ep712021 to ep902021,

[InfernoFlameCat]

This thing is rapidly organizing. a low level swirl is apparent and vigorous convection is occurring. NHC already is giving it a 60% chance of forming in the next 5 days. I think the 40% chance in the next two days however is a bit optimistic. It still is very disorganized and does not have a strong pressure gradient preventing rapid organization of the convection hence the lack of spiral features. Anyhow it is our first true tropical feature!

[CyclonicFury]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902021 05/07/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 21 25 31 36 36 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 21 25 31 36 36 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 2 2 5 8 12 20 26 31 35 43 45 48 43 44 34 41
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 5 5 2 0 -1 5 7 5 0 6 2 0 5 10 -1
SHEAR DIR 79 95 165 228 234 222 208 205 227 223 226 228 246 258 257 261 256
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.9 27.1 26.3 25.1 24.3 25.2 26.3 24.7 23.8 23.7 23.6
POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 163 159 156 149 141 132 124 112 104 114 125 108 97 94 94
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -55.0 -54.6 -54.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 1 2 2 5 2 6 3 6 3
700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 66 65 66 64 63 59 55 50 52 48 51 51 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -21 -22 -27 -35 -30 -31 -24 -26 -15 -8 -10 -2 1 -11 -4 -22 0
200 MB DIV 77 93 97 59 59 84 83 99 59 67 37 35 33 35 15 0 -4
700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -1 0 0 4 3 3
LAND (KM) 581 576 573 571 552 545 523 499 473 393 290 167 83 -29 -93 -125 -140
LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.4 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.8 103.6 104.4 105.2 106.6 107.5 108.2 108.6 108.5 108.1 107.3 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 5 6 7 7 7 5 2 1 1
HEAT CONTENT 49 58 54 42 28 16 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is possible during the
next few days, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical
storm could form over the weekend or early next week while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Ofc this is invested as the GFS/ECMWF have backed off development. This has until it passes ~15N.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Welp there's the invest (and subsequent crayon)...likely won't be a significant system but hey, it gives us something to track, and I'm all for that

[Iceresistance]

This may be a Tropical Depression already, the tops of the convection are spinning . . .

[Kingarabian]

Looking better and better:

[cycloneye]

Looking better and better:
https://i.imgur.com/ZCa9yvF.png

I can see code red 80% at 8 PM PDT.

[Kingarabian]

Looking better and better:
https://i.imgur.com/ZCa9yvF.png

I can see code red 80% at 8 PM PDT.

I agree. SAB's last fix was a 1.5/1.5:

TXPZ27 KNES 071808
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 07/1730Z

C. 13.7N

D. 102.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A IRREGULAR CDO WITH A DIAMETER GREATER THAN 1.5 DEGREES
YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.5 AND FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING CHANGE OF DT TO T0.5/6 HRS DURING FIRST 24-HRS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[Yellow Evan]

07/1730 UTC 13.7N 102.4W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific
07/1130 UTC 12.4N 101.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- East Pacific
07/1130 UTC 12.4N 101.9W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific

Ramping up pretty quickly.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902021 05/07/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 46 49 44 41 37 34 36 38 38 38
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 46 49 44 41 37 34 36 38 38 38
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 33 31 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 2 0 7 15 15 19 21 20 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 3 3 0 1 5 4 8 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 50 40 42 38 166 191 214 212 250 252 244 264 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 164 162 159 156 151 149 143 141 138 134 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 64 65 67 69 68 68 63 54 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -30 -36 -38 -38 -36 -28 -27 -32 -38 -38 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 85 91 71 64 59 56 87 55 24 35 7 -37 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 684 721 761 772 795 798 774 751 725 753 816 883 926 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 8 6 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 43 55 64 51 33 26 27 26 19 18 14 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 34. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 24. 19. 16. 12. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 102.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/07/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 9.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.88 8.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 5.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.45 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.0% 30.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.5% 27.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.8% 32.8% 26.7% 13.7% 1.1% 26.6% 15.1% 16.0%
Bayesian: 8.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.2%
Consensus: 4.5% 21.3% 19.1% 4.6% 0.4% 17.7% 14.8% 5.4%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/07/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902021 05/07/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 46 49 44 41 37 34 36 38 38 38
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 46 49 44 41 37 34 36 38 38 38
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 33 31 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 2 0 7 15 15 19 21 20 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 3 3 0 1 5 4 8 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 50 40 42 38 166 191 214 212 250 252 244 264 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 164 162 159 156 151 149 143 141 138 134 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 64 65 67 69 68 68 63 54 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 9 8 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -30 -36 -38 -38 -36 -28 -27 -32 -38 -38 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 85 91 71 64 59 56 87 55 24 35 7 -37 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 1 2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 684 721 761 772 795 798 774 751 725 753 816 883 926 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 8 6 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 43 55 64 51 33 26 27 26 19 18 14 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 34. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 24. 19. 16. 12. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 102.5

** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 05/07/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 9.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.88 8.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.55 5.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 2.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.45 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.0% 30.5% 0.0% 0.0% 26.5% 27.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.8% 32.8% 26.7% 13.7% 1.1% 26.6% 15.1% 16.0%
Bayesian: 8.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.2%
Consensus: 4.5% 21.3% 19.1% 4.6% 0.4% 17.7% 14.8% 5.4%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 05/07/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Looks like the intensity models have a better handle on this system compared to the globals. It has an ideal environment for the next 60-72 hours.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Very vigorous MLC. Especially apparent now that convective activity has waned a bit:

[Kingarabian]

Should be classified IMO:

[aspen]

Well...that escalated quickly. TD One-E at 00z?

[Astromanía]

EPAC I missed you

[JW-_-]

Storms near the center are generating good upper-level divergence for this system. SST is ripe where it's spinning.

[cycloneye]

Up to 2.0.

TXPZ27 KNES 080014
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 07/2330Z

C. 12.9N

D. 103.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2/SSMI

H. REMARKS....6 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT CHANGE OF NO MORE THAN .5 IN 6 HR
DURING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/2035Z 12.8N 103.7W AMSR2
07/2232Z 12.8N 104.0W SSMI


...KONON

[cycloneye]

90E INVEST 210508 0000 12.5N 103.9W EPAC 30 1007