WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W- Post-Tropical

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WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 006//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
NORTHWEST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS VISIBLY WEAKENING,
ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED ROTATION AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ON ALL SIDES. THE SYSTEM MADE IT ACROSS THE FIRST MOUNTAIN RANGE IN
EASTERN MINDANAO AND IS NOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COTABATO
PROVINCE BETWEEN DAVAO AND COTABATO CITY. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MID AND HIGH LEVEL ENERGY HAS RUN AHEAD
OF THE LLCC AND IS INCREASING SATURATION IN THE SULU SEA. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP AND SURFACE REPORTS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ISLAND DO NOT INDICATE SEVERE WINDS, BUT THE SYSTEM
IS CLEARLY MAINTAINING SOME VIGOR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL VORTEX OF TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DURATION OF ITS OVERLAND TRACK, CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY POINTS TO A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY THAT THE LLCC WILL ENTER
THE SULU SEA OFF ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE AND STABILIZE. THE RECENT SURGE
IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK PROVIDES SOME
INDICATION THAT THE SYSTEM MAY RE-GROUP SOMEWHAT AFTER IT RETURNS TO
THE WARM WATERS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENCROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEARING PALAWAN WILL STIFLE SHARP RE-INTENSIFICATION
AND EVENTUALLY CAUSE DISSIPATION, BUT THE PROCESS MAY TAKE LONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE CLOSER THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARDS PALAWAN, THE MORE SUBSIDENCE AND LESS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IT
WILL ENCOUNTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A FLAT INTENSITY TREND
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BIGGEST FORECASTING DIFFICULTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM AND EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL RE-ENTER THE SULU SEA,
BUT THERE REMAINS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SULU
SEA WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. UNTIL
THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX MOVES BACK OVER WATER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DURATION OF THE LIFESPAN OF TD 03W WILL BE HIGH.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 007//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE COMPACT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 140505Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
THE CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE
(20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR PALAWAN ISLAND. TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TD 03W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.//
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WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 8.4N 121.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 121.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.2N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.1N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 121.0E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
374 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z
IS 8 FEET.
//
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