WPAC: Tropical Depression 03W- Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

96W.INVEST

96W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.4.3N.141.5E

[Kingarabian]

Another low rider.

[JW-_-]

With the big highs due to be moving over the S-H its more believable now and in the near future.

[Hayabusa]

Back in May-08-00Z (including the 2 runs before), there were a fair amount of EC ensembles showing development but since then it died down.

[JW-_-]

[Hayabusa]

Despite the operational GFS being inconsistent ensembles are pretty fair for development but we'll see.

[JW-_-]

JMA 48hr forecast.

[Subtrop]

WWJP27 RJTD 120000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 131E WNW SLOWLY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS BROAD LOWER LEVEL TURNING MARGINALLY DECOUPLED FROM A MORE
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN 112304Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS A
BROAD LOWER LEVEL CIRUCLATION WITH 15-20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW
MARGINALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS PREDICT THAT 96W WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION
AS IT PROPAGATES NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Latest EC ensemble

[JW-_-]

[1900hurricane]

Haven't really been following this one much due to low expectations, but based on a recent MetOp-A ASCAT pass and microwave data, I might actually give it a nod towards classification as a 25 kt tropical depression right now.

[mrbagyo]

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1392483623765430274

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 121207
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 7.1N

D. 130.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 3/10
BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 1.0 AND PT
IS EQUAL TO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[euro6208]

How is this not a tropical storm?

Agencies are underestimating this one.

Oh dear.

[Iceresistance]

How is this not a tropical storm?

Agencies are underestimating this one.

Oh dear.

https://i.imgur.com/9ynMTtS.gif

That thing organized very rapidly! They did NOT see that coming at all! Even the models!

[1900hurricane]

Just kind of waiting for JTWC to put the tropical cyclone formation alert out there at this point. I think you'd kind of have to just by looking at the ASCAT data.

[euro6208]

Amazing...

[Hayabusa]

WTPN22 PGTW 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.6N 131.3E TO 8.7N 124.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 130.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT AREA OF CONVECTION OBSCURING A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS EVIDENT IN DATA FROM A 121302Z ASCAT-B PASS.
FURTHERMORE, THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS 20-25 KTS WINDS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ISOLATED REGIONS OF
HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DIVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE
OVERHEAD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 131600Z.
//
NNNN

[Iceresistance]

Already looks like it has a CDO, and it's tiny as well!