ARB: TAUKTAE - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Pretty impressive on VIS imagery.

[mrbagyo]

current wind readings


mslp



24 accumulated rainfall

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/sojon96/status/1393152609792368647

[mrbagyo]

close range radar loop

[Subtrop]

01A TAUKTAE 210516 1200 16.8N 72.6E IO 100 952

[TorSkk]

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “TAUKTAE” (PRONOUNCED AS TAU’TE) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
ABOUT 19 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500UTC OF
TODAY, THE 16
TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.2°N
AND LONGITUDE 72.3°E, ABOUT 250 KM NORTHWEST OF PANJIM-GOA (43192), 220 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 460 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL
(42909) AND 420 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIU (42914) AND 1010 KM SOUTHEAST OF
KARACHI (41780).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT COAST DURING 1200-1500
UTC OF 17th & CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR (42830) & MAHUVA
(BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT 42838) AROUND 0000 UTC of 18th
MAY.

THE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY BEING MONITORED BY DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR GOA.

AS PER INSAT-3D SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1500 UTC OF TODAY THE 16
th MAY
2021, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CATEGORISED AS T 4.5 WITH EYE PATTERN.
HOWEVER, EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA (AS) BETWEEN LATITUDE 12.0°N & 20°N AND EAST OF LONG 67.0E, OVER
SOUTH KONKAN GOA & COASTAL KARNATAKA AND SOUTH MAHARASHTRA.

THE ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 HPA. SEA CONDITION IS
PHENOMENAL.



Tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas as per details
below:
about 3 meter (m) over Amreli, Gir Somnath, Diu, Bhavnagar, 2-3 m over Bharuch, Anand,
southern parts of Ahmedabad, 1-2 m over Surat, Navsari, Valsad, and 0.5 – 1m over the
remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall.)

[TorSkk]

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE)

B. 16/1800Z

C. 17.82N

D. 71.87E

E. ONE/MET8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD 5.5. PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1315Z 17.07N 72.47E SSMS


HEINS

[aspen]

The east side of the eyewall continues to be weak, suggesting that dry air from the Indian subcontinent is at work. This should put a lid on the maximum possible intensity for Tauktae.

[aspen]

Looks like the eye is collapsing on satellite imagery. Dry air seems to have won out.

[TorSkk]

AS PER INSAT-3D SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1800 UTC OF TODAY THE 16
th MAY
2021, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CATEGORISED AS T 5.0 WITH EYE PATTERN.
HOWEVER, EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA (AS) BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.5°N & 20°N AND EAST OF LONG 67.0E, OVER
SOUTH KONKAN GOA AND SOUTHWEST OF MADHYA MAHARASHTRA.
THE RADAR IMAGERY NOW NOT ABLE OBSERVE SYSTEM CENTER VERY CLEARY AS IT IS
300 KM AWAY FROM THE RADAR. THE SYSTEM CENTER IS SEEN AS A DISTORTED
CIRCLE.
THE ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 95
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 HPA. SEA CONDITION IS
PHENOMENAL.

[Subtrop]

01A TAUKTAE 210516 1800 17.8N 72.1E IO 110 941

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1394075619433058305

[Subtrop]

01A TAUKTAE 210517 0000 18.5N 71.5E IO 120 935

TPIO10 PGTW 170016

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE)

B. 17/0000Z

C. 18.51N

D. 71.65E

E. ONE/MET8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT YIELD 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/2109Z 18.03N 71.77E AMS2
16/2113Z 18.00N 71.82E ATMS


HEINS

[Subtrop]

Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over Eastcentral Arabian Sea into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm: Cyclone Warning & post landfall outlook for Gujarat & Diu coasts (Red message)

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved north-northwestwards with a speed of about 20 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of 17th May, 2021 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 18.5°N and longitude 71.5°E, about 160 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 290 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat), 250 km south-southeast of Diu and 840 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).
It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th & cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) during the night (2000 – 2300 hrs IST) of 17th May as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained wind speed 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Looks like it made a swift recovery:

[doomhaMwx]

Indeed. Tauktae appeared to be already past its peak earlier, but now it's making another attempt to clear out its eye on satellite along with an improved inner core structure.

[TorSkk]

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘TAUKTAE’
LAY CENTRED AT 1130 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 17TH MAY
2021, NEAR LAT.19.2°N AND LONG. 71.5°E ABOUT
 145 KM WEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA),
 180 SOUTHEAST OF DIU

Tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas as per details below:
about 3 -4 meter (m) over Anand & Amreli, Gir Somnath, Diu, Bhavnagar, 2-3 m over Bharuch,
southern parts of Ahmedabad, 1-2 m over Surat, Navsari, Valsad, and 0.5 – 1m over the
remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall.

[doomhaMwx]

01A TAUKTAE 210517 0600 19.2N 71.3E IO 115 939

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20210517/0600Z
TC: TAUKTAE
NR: 12
PSN: N1912 E07130
MOV: NNW08KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 950HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT

[TorSkk]

Tauktae will make landfall during the next couple of hours. IMD is predicting storm surge up to 4 meters in the Gulf of Khambhat