ARB: TAUKTAE - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

92A INVEST 210510 1800 4.5N 60.5E IO 15 0

[ElectricStorm]

Is this the one the GFS is blowing up into a monster?

[Subtrop]

ABIO10 PGTW 110100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/110100Z-111800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N
57.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA, YEMEN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL
102151Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING
WITH CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 101730Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATES AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATE INVEST 92A IS IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEER AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
92A WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AS
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[aspen]

Is this the one the GFS is blowing up into a monster?

I believe so. The GFS has a classifiable TC in only a few days.

The 18z GFS run peaks at 900 mbar @186 hours, with a landfall in Pakistan like the Euro has been showing.

[Hayabusa]

Exploded on latest run

[JW-_-]

92A INVEST 210511 0600 8.3N 58.1E IO 25 1001







2h 30m ago (ref 00Z)


6h ago (ref 18Z)

[TorSkk]

ARABIAN SEA:
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN AREA, SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIA OCEAN (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 930C). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AROUND
14TH MAY MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND INTENSIFY INTO A
DEPRESSION AROUND 15TH MAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AROUND 16TH MAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS.

REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
LESS THAN 1. THEREAFTER, IT WILL MOVE AROUND PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE INITIALLY
BECOMING MORE THAN 1 DURING 16TH
-17TH MAY AND REMAINING LESS THAN 1 ON ALL
OTHER DAYS DURING NEXT 6 DAYS. THUS, MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER THE ARABIAN SEA (AS) DURING NEXT 7 DAYS. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL (TCHP) IS MORE THAN 140 KJ/CM2 OVER SOUTHEAST AS AND
IS DECREASING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF CENTRAL AS & NORTH AS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) IS AROUND 300C OVER ENTIRE AS & 30-310C OVER SOUTHEAST AS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH AS & ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN IS STILL PERSISTING. HOWEVER, IT HAS FURTHER EXPANDED
AND IS MOVING EASTWARDS. ASSOCIATED MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -930C.
THE CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL BELT IS LIKELY TO GET
ENHANCED DURING NEXT 5 DAYS DUE TO WESTERLY WIND BURST.
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS 50 X10-6 S
-1 TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS THE SAME DURING PAST 24 HOURS AROUND 20-30 X10-5 S
-1
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED DURING PAST 24 HOURS 40 X 10-5 S
-1 TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM
CENTRE. CURRENTLY, THE INVEST AREA IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) (15-20 KTS). HOWEVER, VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER SOUTHEAST AS.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER SOUTHEAST AS AROUND 14TH MAY WHICH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AROUND 15TH MAY, MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 16TH
MAY.
WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD CLUSTERS OVER CENTRAL
PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
PERSISTENCE OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT LIKE MJO , HIGH SST, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VWS AND WESTERLY WIND BURST, A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AROUND 14TH MAY
MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION AROUND 15TH MAY, MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING
LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AROUND 16TH MAY.

[JW-_-]

Lakshadweep (Island) https://meteologix.com/au/forecast/1265 ... ep/xltrend

.................................................................................................................................



Haymā multi forecast atm. https://meteologix.com/au/forecast/2879 ... o/pressure

[TorSkk]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1392073522973839364

[JW-_-]

JTWC usually does well in this basin just have to patiently wait on their forecast track.

[JW-_-]

18z

A decent shift in track by the GFS.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/warning_center/status/1392270278521196545

[JW-_-]

Was the 5h ago (ref 12Z)

[JW-_-]

Big wind field it thinks, and maybe get a tad elongated.





Shear http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Moisture http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Steering http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

GFS Model Data https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _vort&fh=0

ECMWF Ensembles https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off




Seem quite a few storms over the years over-hyped by the global models in this region. Wait and watch I guess, with real-time intensity.

[StormTracker89]

Just curious, where did you find this discussion?

ARABIAN SEA:
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN AREA, SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIA OCEAN (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 930C). SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AROUND
14TH MAY MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND INTENSIFY INTO A
DEPRESSION AROUND 15TH MAY. IT MAY INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AROUND 16TH MAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS.

REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
LESS THAN 1. THEREAFTER, IT WILL MOVE AROUND PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE INITIALLY
BECOMING MORE THAN 1 DURING 16TH
-17TH MAY AND REMAINING LESS THAN 1 ON ALL
OTHER DAYS DURING NEXT 6 DAYS. THUS, MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER THE ARABIAN SEA (AS) DURING NEXT 7 DAYS. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL (TCHP) IS MORE THAN 140 KJ/CM2 OVER SOUTHEAST AS AND
IS DECREASING OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF CENTRAL AS & NORTH AS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) IS AROUND 300C OVER ENTIRE AS & 30-310C OVER SOUTHEAST AS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH AS & ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN IS STILL PERSISTING. HOWEVER, IT HAS FURTHER EXPANDED
AND IS MOVING EASTWARDS. ASSOCIATED MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -930C.
THE CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL BELT IS LIKELY TO GET
ENHANCED DURING NEXT 5 DAYS DUE TO WESTERLY WIND BURST.
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS 50 X10-6 S
-1 TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS THE SAME DURING PAST 24 HOURS AROUND 20-30 X10-5 S
-1
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED DURING PAST 24 HOURS 40 X 10-5 S
-1 TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM
CENTRE. CURRENTLY, THE INVEST AREA IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) (15-20 KTS). HOWEVER, VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER SOUTHEAST AS.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER SOUTHEAST AS AROUND 14TH MAY WHICH WILL INTENSIFY INTO A
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AROUND 15TH MAY, MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 16TH
MAY.
WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD CLUSTERS OVER CENTRAL
PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
PERSISTENCE OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT LIKE MJO , HIGH SST, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VWS AND WESTERLY WIND BURST, A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AROUND 14TH MAY
MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION AROUND 15TH MAY, MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING
LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND INTENSIFY GRADUALLY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AROUND 16TH MAY.

[JW-_-]

That was from. https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/co ... yclone.php
Scroll down the page. It's from an agency that sometimes has been known to call a hurricane strength system a depression. Can be slow on upgrades.

[Hayabusa]

Shifted to India in latest run.

[JW-_-]

92A INVEST 210512 0600 10.8N 63.6E IO 25 1004

[doomhaMwx]

Vorticity is becoming more concentrated in the eastern part of this broad system (around 70E), which is in line with the eastward shift in the models. Models are establishing a well-defined circulation near the Indian west coast, develop it into a tropical/cyclonic storm in 48-72hrs time, and continuing to intensify as it heads north. An earlier landfall can't be discounted though, thereby limiting intensity.

[JW-_-]

A lot of dry continental air further north