ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

For the GOM area.

91L INVEST 210521 0000 24.3N 93.7W ATL 20 1010

[aspen]

Invest 90L and 91L simultaneously active in mid-late May....this is gonna be another long, crazy season, isn’t it?

[AnnularCane]

Huh. I actually wasn't really expecting this.

[ROCK]

its the new norm...CSU has 17 3-4 majors and analogs of active seasons ie 2008. thats an IKE year so yeah I am back this season. I miss the old days of late night waiting on the EURO...

[ROCK]

looks better than 90L attm....

[GeneratorPower]

Good evening to all and glad to be back for another season. Not much of a core to this thing yet. But some convection on the eastern side. Looking forward to tracking something.

[Ubuntwo]

Circulation looks pretty good in the mid levels with plenty of turning on the surface along a trough axis. It's the Gulf of Mexico and hurricane season is just around the corner: let's see what it can pull off.

[ROCK]

Circulation looks pretty good in the mid levels with plenty of turning on the surface along a trough axis. It's the Gulf of Mexico and hurricane season is just around the corner: let's see what it can pull off.

Agree..I just want it to burn a name in May..that would be awesome.

Nice to see the old gang back. Ceye Ivan Gpower ACane now I just need Portastorm?

[Cpv17]

I’m interested to see if this will go toward the mid TX coast or the upper TX coast cuz that will have big implications on my weekend forecast.

[Ivanhater]

Circulation looks pretty good in the mid levels with plenty of turning on the surface along a trough axis. It's the Gulf of Mexico and hurricane season is just around the corner: let's see what it can pull off.

Agree..I just want it to burn a name in May..that would be awesome.

Nice to see the old gang back. Ceye Ivan Gpower ACane now I just need Portastorm?

Good to see you back Rock!

Doesn't look like we will get a much needed break this year

[KatDaddy]

We definitely do not need more rainfall across SE TX and especially SW LA.

[ROCK]

We definitely do not need more rainfall across SE TX and especially SW LA.

I agree Kat..nice to see you again..you are part of the crew also. LA has been hammered for days. I saw the video. So much moisture coming off the GOM and all these boundaries. Then the outflow boundaries that provide lift.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Two invests on May 20th? Why am I not surprised anymore?

[Steve]

Pretty cool. I was skimming through the Weatherbell Saturday Summary last weekend, and Joe mentioned the MJO would be heading for Phase 4. As you can see, that's exactly where we are:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

The one place in the Gulf of Mexico ripe during Phase 4 is the NW Gulf. Delta landfalled as a Cat 2 last year. Despite that, Sally was also a Phase 4 system and Isaias. Isaias followed the MJO 4 trend as there is a band of + anomalies just off and parallel to the US East Coast. I posted the links last season to the rainfall and storm anomalies by Phase, but I don't have the link saved. So I'll have to find it again when the season gets more active.

While this won't prove to be all that much, it's got me curious as to whether the MJO will be one of the principal drivers for this season and if it's something we'll be able to rely on occasionally for hints as to formation (8-1-2-3) and possible landfall points.

[ElectricStorm]

TX/LA have gotten so much rain already, they definitely don't need anymore. I'm also interested in how this will affect any severe weather pattern that could set up by robbing it of moisture. Either way, if both these invests end up developing, it could be a sign that the Atlantic could still be in the favorable background state it was in last year.

[eastcoastFL]

Another early season. Hope everyone braved the winter and pandemic we’ll Time to keep an eye on the tropics. Doesn’t look like this will turn into too much. Maybe some more rain for Texas.

[jaguars_22]

It’s a naked swirl! I’m calling no development! Maybe a shower or two for central Texas

[Cpv17]

It’s a naked swirl! I’m calling no development! Maybe a shower or two for central Texas

DMIN will do that.

[ROCK]

Pretty cool. I was skimming through the Weatherbell Saturday Summary last weekend, and Joe mentioned the MJO would be heading for Phase 4. As you can see, that's exactly where we are:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

The one place in the Gulf of Mexico ripe during Phase 4 is the NW Gulf. Delta landfalled as a Cat 2 last year. Despite that, Sally was also a Phase 4 system and Isaias. Isaias followed the MJO 4 trend as there is a band of + anomalies just off and parallel to the US East Coast. I posted the links last season to the rainfall and storm anomalies by Phase, but I don't have the link saved. So I'll have to find it again when the season gets more active.

While this won't prove to be all that much, it's got me curious as to whether the MJO will be one of the principal drivers for this season and if it's something we'll be able to rely on occasionally for hints as to formation (8-1-2-3) and possible landfall points.

Steve!! Totally agree with your assessment of MJO. We are in a different time now so all bets are off. One day me and the wife will head over your way..

[ROCK]

It’s a naked swirl! I’m calling no development! Maybe a shower or two for central Texas

It’s May lol what do you expect with sub 26 degree waters and 20 knot shear. Wait for the early morning into the day tomorrow. It will be ok ✅