ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

I think NHC may go 50%-70% chance of development in their next outlook. We are initiating advisories on the disturbance now. Moves inland near Matagorda Bay around 1am tomorrow as a depression.

[AutoPenalti]

Daytime heating may help generate some convection but I don't think it will be enough to make it classifiable.

[lrak]

Waxing boards!!!

Surf!!! And it's still a little cold lol

[wxman57]

Waxing boards!!!

Surf!!! And it's still a little cold lol

Winds are stronger away from this weak low.

[lrak]

Thanks wxman57,

hoping for a little west to northwest wind on Sunday with a long period swell from the east.

The long tail down to the BOC is impressive IMO

[DestinHurricane]

I'm not seeing any sign of convection firing on the east side. The dry air really killed this one.

[kevin]

I think this one won't have enough time to be classified. 90L only seems a matter of time before it becomes Ana. But theoretically, if both 90L and 91L get named it would only be the 6th time since 1851 that there are 2 depressions in May. The previous times were 1887 (2 TS's), 1951 (cat 1 & TD), 1954 (TD & TS), 1969 (2 TD's), 2012 (2 TS's) and 2020 (2 TS's). Neglecting TD's the only years left would be 1887, 2012 and 2020.

[wxman57]

Thanks wxman57,

hoping for a little west to northwest wind on Sunday with a long period swell from the east.

The long tail down to the BOC is impressive IMO

Keep hoping. That wind on Sunday will likely be from the ESE at near 20 kts

[lrak]

Thanks wxman57,

hoping for a little west to northwest wind on Sunday with a long period swell from the east.

The long tail down to the BOC is impressive IMO

Keep hoping. That wind on Sunday will likely be from the ESE at near 20 kts

Ugh....I will We've had great spring swells though, just COLD waters still.

[Cpv17]

Thanks wxman57,

hoping for a little west to northwest wind on Sunday with a long period swell from the east.

The long tail down to the BOC is impressive IMO

Keep hoping. That wind on Sunday will likely be from the ESE at near 20 kts

Ugh....I will We've had great spring swells though, just COLD waters still.

CC is always windy. Every time I go there the wind is nuts.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I don't see this one getting classified before it runs out of time. Hopefully the rain stays away from all the already flooded areas.

[AnnularCane]

Yeah I don't see this one getting classified before it runs out of time. Hopefully the rain stays away from all the already flooded areas.

You're probably right but after Bertha last year, I wouldn't be too surprised.

[HurricaneBrain]

I think we'll see 60/60 here in a few minutes.

[wxman57]

I had figured NHC would go 50-70% for 91L at 18Z and they're 60%. They will almost certainly start PTC advisories at 4pm. Inland near Mataorda Bay by early tomorrow morning. Not much time.

[Gums]

Salute!

Along the coast here for last few days, the original GoM low did enuf damage, but it was kinda unsure which way to go and basically sat there and it rained like hell over SE Texas and south Louisiana. Over here in the Panhandle, we were looking hard, but the upper level steering and such kept the thing west.

The new low is on its own, but if it was another hundred miles further south, I would give it a name on Saturday. Apparently the same steering as we saw with the rainmaker this week is in action, and maybe a buncha rain in south Texas, but that's all.

I am still holding out for prediction of no named storm before Memorial Day Somehow, conditions do not resemble what I saw in the 50's and 60's with Audrey and Alma. Had some other in the 90's along the Coast here, but nothing to write home about.

Gums sends...

[Sciencerocks]

Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has
winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase
in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived
tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the
northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone
advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.
Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead
to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this
region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding
potential can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Nimbus]

Starting to pick up a little convection over the warm core so I'd classify it as a depression now.

[chaser1]

Agreed. 91 is a fair degree closer to a TD then a number of recent year "piles" that were classified. Wouldn't take much co-located COC convection to convince me of being a TD. Now, a T.S might take a bit more work then land and time-frame might allow.

[Sciencerocks]

With the increase of convection near the center I agree that it is deserving.