WPAC: CHOI-WAN - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

SSD fixed it @ 6N1/132.7E about 3 hours ago. Comparing it with infrared satellite imagery, the LLC was tucked beneath the large convection mass.

TXPQ22 KNES 300620
TCSWNP

A. 04W (NONAME)

B. 30/0530Z

C. 6.0N

D. 132.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 9.5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 2.5 BASED
ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PT IS EQUAL TO
3.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[Subtrop]

04W FOUR 210530 1200 6.9N 131.9E WPAC 35 1000

[Hayabusa]

JMA CI 2.0 at 00Z looks like they gonna name it as Choi-wan now.

[Hayabusa]

Last 2 GFS runs shifted to a landfall.

[Hayabusa]

JTWC upgraded to 50 knots

04W FOUR 210531 0000 7.9N 130.7E WPAC 50 986

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1399164108398903301

[Hayabusa]

TY2103(Choi-wan)
Issued at 2021/05/31 01:30 UTC
Analisys at 05/31 00 UTC
Category TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N8°20′(8.3°)
E131°20′(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
30-kt wind area S220km(120NM)
N110km(60NM)

[JW-_-]

Chips have some uncertainty leaving the door open with the eventual ceiling intensity of what this system could be.

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 00Z strongest run and most western track, cat 3 typhoon over the SCS

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 06Z almost same in track first landfall just past 09Z tomorrow then passing just south of Manila, then becomes a major typhoon over the SCS, very interesting change of forecast.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Landfall too but still on the east side.

[ElectricStorm]

04W CHOI-WAN 210531 1800 9.9N 128.5E WPAC 45 996

Hmm all the the previous 50kt points have been revised to 45kts as well.

[wxman57]

It's a sheared mess with an exposed LLC. JTWC steadily backing away from the typhoon forecast. I think they were confused with the system to its east that the models were making a typhoon near Luzon.

[Meow]

The track is very special.

[Hayabusa]

HWRF still makes this a strong typhoon over the SCS as it landfalls over Taiwan.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1399726097873391618

[dexterlabio]

It's become clothed when the naked center was about to hit Samar island. Orographic lifting could be helping, maybe?

[wxman57]

The center has been well NE of the convection for the past 36 hours. Strong NE wind shear drove all squalls well SW of the center. Here's the last visible shot from around 09Z this morning (4am CDT).

[Hayabusa]

Euro reintensifies to 985 mb near Sibuyan Sea then passing near Manila later