WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

[aspen]

In just 12 hours, the HWRF went from showing a Super Typhoon in the 920s to nothing more than a marginal TS.

Seems like the WPac has been having a lot of trouble developing both 04W and 90W.

[Hayabusa]

Back to issuing advisories

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZJUN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151ZJUN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA) :
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 01JUN21 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 04W (CHOI-WAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 457 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 010300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.3N 140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010400Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION
THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, A 010004Z METOP-
B ASCAT IMAGE FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF 90W WITH
POTENTIAL MULTIPLE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BROADER OVERALL ROTATION. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF
THE BROADER CIRCULATION AND THE SMALLER EMBEDDED FEATURES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET, GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE,
THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

[wxman57]

Overnight scatterometer pass indicated no closed circulation. No advisories from JMA likely.