WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

[Hayabusa]

I guess this is the second system the models are trying to form

90W.INVEST

90W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.6N.158.4E

[Hayabusa]

25 knots? Are we in the Atlantic now?

90W INVEST 210527 0000 5.7N 157.9E WPAC 25 1008

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 270130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/270130Z-270600ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.6N
146.9E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261847Z 91 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. INVEST 99W IS LOCATED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7N
157.9E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 262110Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS STRONGER WINDS (20-25KTS)
NORTH OF THE CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD AS IT DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARAGRAPHS 1.B.(1) AND 1.B.
(2). //
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

The interesting with this invest that if it forms and recurves it would create a chaotic instability we could see multiple TCs forming from that but of course that is still in the fantasy long range, GFS has many false positives already this month alone especially in the near-mid range.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 280330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280330Z-280600ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 156.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 474
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 272330Z
ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED
BY 15-20 KTS WINDS AND STRONGER 20-25 KTS WINDS DISPLACED
APPROXIMATELY 60-120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF
INVEST INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS PROVIDING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. DESPITE THIS DIVERGENCE IN
INTENSITY SOLUTIONS, ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Except for EPS still no operational development from the Euro, it is more interested in 99W alone, GFS on the other hand develops this into a strong typhoon. We'll see what Euro 00Z says.

[Hayabusa]

00Z Euro shows vorticity but development gets squashed by 99W, so either early on one becomes the dominant one or both separately develop and later one becomes the dominant one.

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 12Z develops it into a strong typhoon.

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

HWRF 12Z develops it into a strong typhoon.
https://i.imgur.com/tHLMSQi.png

18z HWRF continues this trend with a 926 mbar typhoon at the end of its run.

[Hayabusa]

GFS 00Z weakest run yet through 5 days but strongest run for 99W.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA 90W wants to beat 99W?

WTPN22 PGTW 290530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.6N 153.0E TO 9.1N 148.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 152.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 153.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 622
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURNING OVER AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 290328Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A POINT SOURCE ALOFT, AND LOW (<15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90W WILL POTENTIALLY GAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND THEN LOSE STRENGTH AS IT PROPAGATES NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH SHOWS A STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION
BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300530Z.//
NNNN

[Subtrop]

90W INVEST 210529 0600 6.9N 152.0E WPAC 25 1004

[mrbagyo]

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 150E WEST SLOWLY.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 5.1N

D. 150.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 3/10
BANDING FOR A DT=1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[JW-_-]

Few tall overshooting tops going on.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 300000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 149E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS doesn't develop anymore.

[Subtrop]

WTPN21 PGTW 300530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290521ZMAY21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 290530)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 149.3E TO 9.6N 145.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W)PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 152.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TURNING AND FLARING CONVECTION WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 90W WILL LOSE STRENGTH AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHWESTWARD. HWRF INDICATES MINOR DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES
REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310530Z.
//
NNNN