EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2021, DB, O, 2021052506, 9999999999, , 004, , , 8, METWATCH, , EP912021

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912021 05/29/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 19 22 28 35 42 44 46 45 44 42 41 37 29
V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 19 22 28 35 42 44 46 45 44 42 41 37 29
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 7 6 8 4 4 12 10 13 18 17 17 19 26 44
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 2 4 7 8 5 5 9 5 8 1 2 4 1 -5
SHEAR DIR 19 5 350 350 321 336 311 318 271 267 255 240 251 253 243 222 221
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.1 26.1 24.9 23.0
POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 154 156 164 161 159 156 155 156 154 153 144 124 112 93
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 69 67 69 72 71 70 68 68 65 65 63 62 58 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 11 11 13 12 13 12 11 11 10
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -24 -28 -32 -32 -30 -30 -31 -31 -28 -16 -5 -2 11 10 24 15
200 MB DIV -10 13 12 25 34 77 72 96 74 57 36 28 -17 -11 17 66 59
700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -8 -6 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 1 4
LAND (KM) 740 755 773 803 837 883 909 909 898 892 877 854 844 809 663 465 222
LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.5 11.3 12.3 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.6 101.3 102.2 103.2 105.5 107.7 109.3 110.3 110.8 111.0 111.0 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 8 5 3 2 2 4 6 9 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 21 24 37 47 63 49 41 34 31 22 12 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 21. 28. 33. 36. 40. 42. 45. 47. 47. 47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. -0. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 24. 26. 25. 24. 22. 21. 17. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 99.9

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 05/29/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 5.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 1.2% 12.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 4.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 05/29/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[AnnularCane]

I could swear I remember seeing 91E earlier than this. Maybe I'm thinking of something else.

[aspen]

I could swear I remember seeing 91E earlier than this. Maybe I'm thinking of something else.

You’re probably thinking of 91L.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

All the models peak this as a moderate TS and nothing more. Quite interesting that it's set to develop over open waters IMO vs closer to the MX coast which has much higher OHC.

GFS and Euro later on, try to recurve this back towards Baja California. So some Alma 2002 track vibes.

CMC keeps this over open waters.

[AnnularCane]

I could swear I remember seeing 91E earlier than this. Maybe I'm thinking of something else.

You’re probably thinking of 91L.

I'll say that is possible since I don't know what else I'm thinking of, but I feel like it was more recent. Or maybe I dreamed it.

Beautiful invest in any case!

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
of this system during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 9.3N

D. 101.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AGREES WITH 1.5 BASED
ON A DEVELOPING TREND. PT IS EQUAL TO 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912021 05/30/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 44 48 48 48 46 45 43 42 35 27
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 44 48 48 48 46 45 43 42 35 27
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 6 5 4 7 16 14 14 12 12 15 18 21 34 47
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 6 6 9 5 0 4 3 4 3 -1 2 1 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 357 342 335 320 336 340 300 288 280 279 258 267 251 258 216 211 217
SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.9 27.9 26.0 24.8 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 157 160 162 161 157 156 156 154 154 151 142 123 111 87
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -54.0 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 70 70 72 71 75 71 69 67 63 64 63 60 57 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 11 12
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -28 -28 -25 -26 -22 -33 -33 -27 -15 -6 -3 6 10 26 17
200 MB DIV 25 44 64 80 111 96 116 70 29 54 46 13 -24 0 64 80 47
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -8 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 1
LAND (KM) 740 758 788 812 845 864 884 892 893 900 893 895 887 818 658 467 249
LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 11.1 12.0 12.8 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.2 102.1 103.1 104.3 106.5 108.4 109.8 110.7 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 11 9 7 3 2 1 2 4 7 8 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 25 31 38 57 56 43 33 28 24 17 10 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 23. 23. 21. 20. 18. 17. 10. 2.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 100.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 5.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.8
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.2% 45.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 15.5% 6.3% 3.2% 0.3% 7.5% 3.5% 10.8%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.4% 13.4% 8.9% 1.1% 0.1% 9.6% 16.3% 3.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[JW-_-]

Looking right on cue for these seeds.

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 29 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are slowly becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
of this disturbance during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Subtrop]

WTPN21 PHNC 300830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 101.2W TO 11.7N 105.8W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300600Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 101.5W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.0N 101.5W APPROXIMATELY 866 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE INVEST 91E
WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS
WHICH SHOWS 91E PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINOR CONSOLIDATION
AND DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310830Z.//
NNNN

[JW-_-]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 29 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are slowly becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
of this disturbance during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

A low pressure system located more than 500 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better defined.
Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs
of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for a tropical depression to form at any time during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to
westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Subtrop]

EP, 91, 2021053012, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1036W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912021 05/30/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 49 56 60 61 63 65 68 66 65 63 58 51
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 49 56 60 61 63 65 68 66 65 63 58 51
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 43 46 45 43 41 38 37 38 39 38 36 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 6 2 5 10 13 10 6 4 2 7 5 11 16 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 4 4 0 3 6 5 11 3 0 0 1 -3 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 15 27 90 88 172 299 298 291 295 266 62 69 333 233 208 199 204
SST (C) 29.5 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.1 26.6 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 163 161 161 159 155 155 154 153 153 153 156 155 144 129 123
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 71 72 71 72 70 70 68 66 66 66 69 66 59 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 13 12 14 16 16 15 16 14 14 11
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -21 -15 -22 -21 -32 -35 -31 -14 -1 9 -5 -4 -9 -4 -7
200 MB DIV 44 52 61 76 80 100 87 81 81 76 44 20 -8 42 53 36 0
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0
LAND (KM) 774 794 807 840 876 926 974 1001 1009 1016 1024 1001 970 890 779 628 500
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.9 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.7 105.7 106.8 107.8 109.6 110.9 111.7 111.9 111.8 111.7 111.5 111.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 6 2 1 1 1 2 4 6 7 8 6
HEAT CONTENT 35 50 44 36 47 61 33 25 23 23 23 25 26 22 10 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 26. 30. 31. 33. 35. 38. 36. 35. 33. 28. 21.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 103.6

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 7.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 6.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 1.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 27.7% 23.4% 22.7% 0.0% 34.6% 44.0% 44.9%
Logistic: 7.2% 44.9% 26.6% 16.3% 1.6% 23.0% 10.6% 14.5%
Bayesian: 1.7% 9.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 4.5% 0.3%
Consensus: 6.7% 27.4% 17.6% 13.3% 0.6% 19.4% 19.7% 19.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 10.0% 4.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912021 INVEST 05/30/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR)

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ29 KNES 301226
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 30/1130Z

C. 10.9N

D. 103.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DISPLAYED BANDING OF 3.5/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF
2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

30/0814Z 10.9N 103.0W AMSR2


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

Latest runs of GFS and ECMWF show something out of this consistnelty now, though you'd think with that SHIPS output, they'd show more.

[Yellow Evan]

Last two HWRF runs make this a hurricane in 48 hours before weakening due to increased shear and cool SSTs from upwelling. Only dynamic model to do so, however.