EPAC: CARLOS - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

The great disappointment.

[Kingarabian]

Hope it's just an anomaly and not something we'll much of this season.

[galaxy401]

I believe that these 90/90 invests that never get upgraded seem to happen once per year or every other year. I do remember some other disturbances in the past few years that almost became a TD but fell just short.

[Kingarabian]

Recent GFS runs bring this back in 4 days.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS:

[Nancy Smar]

92E.INVEST

EP, 92, 2021061012, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1152W, 30, 1008, LO

[AnnularCane]

Why am I feeling like I've gone back in time?

[aspen]

Wait, 92E is back?

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922021 06/10/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 40 47 57 63 68 71 69 68 63 61 58 54
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 40 47 57 63 68 71 69 68 63 61 58 54
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 36 38 41 44 47 50 52 52 50 43 36 29 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 9 10 11 2 7 2 2 3 7 16 24 17 11 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 1 6 8 6 2 -2 3 4 -2
SHEAR DIR 98 89 65 40 33 52 36 50 30 41 194 245 263 260 264 258 247
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 148 149 148 149 150 149 146 143 141 145 143 139 137 139
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 68 68 67 63 60 59 56 53 41 36 33 35 34 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 7 8 10 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 10
850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 14 9 1 13 20 17 21 20 20 26 49 45 22 13 -6
200 MB DIV 14 16 3 -9 -5 21 76 55 57 57 46 -11 -97 -44 13 15 -8
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1361 1413 1480 1552 1613 1735 1855 1987 2122 2268 2449 2661 2860 2996 3052 3028 2995
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.3 10.7 9.6 8.1 6.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.1 117.2 118.3 119.4 121.4 123.2 125.0 126.5 127.8 129.0 130.2 131.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 11 11 9 9 8 7 7 9 10 9 7 4 2 4
HEAT CONTENT 19 16 10 11 12 15 18 16 16 15 11 20 32 38 38 34 34

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 34. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 17. 27. 33. 38. 41. 39. 38. 33. 31. 28. 24.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 115.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/10/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.54 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.1% 13.4% 12.6% 0.0% 12.7% 14.0% 18.1%
Logistic: 2.5% 12.0% 5.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.5%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.0% 8.7% 6.2% 4.7% 0.3% 4.4% 4.8% 6.9%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/10/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

The great disappointment.

Time to see if it can redeem itself.

[Kingarabian]

Still there on the 12z EPS, with about the same odds of developing.

[Kingarabian]

TXPZ21 KNES 101752
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 10/1730Z

C. 11.8N

D. 114.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS A LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC THAT IS LESS THAN 1.25
DEGREES FROM THE SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A SHEAR PATTERN DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

18z GFS much weaker.

Intensity models also flip flopping.
18z HWRF now makes it a TS, 18z HMON no longer makes it a TS.

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 10 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual
development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could
form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't really have confidence in development here. Its model support has never been consistent, its outflow is limited, and structurally there's still no non-elongated/exposed center that was a feature back when this originally busted.

[Kingarabian]

Shear is going to be a problem for atleast another 48 bours.

[Kingarabian]

Nothing too enthralling from the 00z GFS and 00z CMC

[Kingarabian]

I guess the NHC will keep the odds up regardless of this invests history as long as the Euro remains bullish.

00z Euro:


00z EPS:

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some gradual development
over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

I really don't have confidence in this.

[Sciencerocks]