EPAC: INVEST 93E

[Kingarabian]

The UKMET really likes this area for development. It could be 93E or a whole different disturbance. These CAG's are capable of spawning numerous area's of interest.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.1N 94.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2021 96 13.0N 93.7W 1003 30
0000UTC 17.06.2021 108 13.8N 93.0W 999 36
1200UTC 17.06.2021 120 14.2N 93.0W 995 47
0000UTC 18.06.2021 132 CEASED TRACKING

[Yellow Evan]

Not much at the surface here but it’s at least trying.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association
with a weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear only marginally conducive for additional development over
the next day or so. By early next week, the system is forecast to
interact with land and a larger disturbance developing to its north,
and further development is not anticipated. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET keeps this the vort alive and begins to develop it by Tuesday. Peaks it as a moderate TS.



http://www.weathermodels.com

[Kingarabian]

TXPZ22 KNES 130009
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93E)

B. 12/2330Z

C. 15.0N

D. 97.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY-DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A LLCC NEAR THE EDGE OF A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF
2.0. CENTER APPEEARS TO HAVE REFORMED TO THE N IN LAST 6 HR AND A 2254Z
SSIMS PASS CONFIRMS THIS. MET AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
LIMITING FT 6 HR CHANGE TO 0.5 SINCE PREVIOUS FT WAS NOT >1.5 6 HR AGO.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2254Z 15.0N 97.1W SSMIS


...KONON

[Yellow Evan]

Outside chance non-UKMET models are wrong here and this rapidly spins up as it nears land. It’s happened before a few times last decade.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET continues to insist:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.0N 94.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2021 84 13.9N 94.0W 1005 25
0000UTC 17.06.2021 96 14.4N 93.7W 1003 32
1200UTC 17.06.2021 108 15.1N 94.1W 998 41
0000UTC 18.06.2021 120 15.5N 94.5W 997 42
1200UTC 18.06.2021 132 15.6N 94.6W 1000 37
0000UTC 19.06.2021 144 16.2N 94.6W 1006 30

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure located about a hundred miles
south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico has become ill-defined while
the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for development,
and formation of a tropical cyclone is not anticipated. Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through early next week. See
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET drops it