ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (93L)//
WTNT21 KNGU 141200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32.8N 76.1W TO 35.7N 73.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 32.7N 76.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 9 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: MOREHEAD CITY, NC DOPPLER RADAR AND MARINE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A SMALL, WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS FORMED ABOUT 120 NM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, NC. SURFACE
WINDS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 26-28 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, A
SHORT LIVED DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, WELL OFFSHORE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 151200Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[aspen]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical
characteristics. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form later today or tonight. This system is expected to
move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder
waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for
further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Called it. If 93L can continue to sustain itself, it’ll steal the name Bill from 92L.

[xironman]

Nice tower over the proto center, that should help

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely wasn't expecting to wake up to this!

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2021061412, , BEST, 0, 345N, 745W, 30, 1006, LO

[cycloneye]

Can we say hello Bill?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Can we say hello Bill?

https://i.imgur.com/uXjOF6u.jpg

This thing spun up quickly. Classification at 11 is looking like a distinct possibility.

[aspen]

Good job pointing this area out yesterday Aric.

[Nancy Smar]

TXNT26 KNES 141312
TCSNTL
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 14/1131Z

C. 34.5N

D. 74.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY. SYSTEM UNDERWENT TROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE PAST 24-HRS SO NO MET OR PT. 8/10 BANDING AROUND
LLCC YIELDS DT OF 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[Kazmit]

Well, this came out of nowhere! Reminds me of last year's B storm as well.

[Yellow Evan]

This is absolutely classifiable despite its low odds until last night.

[wxman57]

Just needs to be detached from the cold front.

[AnnularCane]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical
characteristics. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form later today or tonight. This system is expected to
move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder
waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for
further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Called it. If 93L can continue to sustain itself, it’ll steal the name Bill from 92L.

Well, to be fair, 92L doesn't really have claim to Bill.

[tolakram]

SLIDER floater loop

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1576&y=1356&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Looks like at least a TD to me.

[aspen]

The 06z HWRF has this peaking at 991 mbar and 65 kt by 33 hrs out, although it’s unclear if it’s tropical or not.

[wxman57]

EC and GFS have it dissipating by 36 hrs offshore Nova Scotia. I think NHC will call it "Bill" this hour.

[Aric Dunn]

TXNT26 KNES 141312
TCSNTL
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 14/1131Z

C. 34.5N

D. 74.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY. SYSTEM UNDERWENT TROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE PAST 24-HRS SO NO MET OR PT. 8/10 BANDING AROUND
LLCC YIELDS DT OF 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[Nancy Smar]

Special Message from NHC Issued 14 Jun 2021 14:06 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located offshore of the coast of North Carolina and moving away from the United States, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

[Aric Dunn]

The moment i woke up yesterday and saw the t-storm complex moving off SC I knew we had to keep an eye on it for this exact thing to happen.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 02, 2021061412, , BEST, 0, 345N, 745W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, TRANSITIONED, alA32021 to al022021,