ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[CyclonicFury]

Should we be concerned about the relative lack of SAL so far?

I always felt like SAL was the most overrated indicator for forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity. Sure it can suppress TCG in the moment. But I remember Michael Lowry mentioning in the past but above-normal levels of SAL in July were actually correlated with more active seasons. Last year we had that record-breaking SAL outbreak in late June, and 2020 was the most active season on record (though not particularly a MDR heavy year, but I don't think the June SAL outbreak had any impact on the peak season activity in the MDR).

[Sciencerocks]

Strong SAL and above avg eastern Atlantic shear allow for the wave to advance westward where it forms in the western portion of the Atlantic, carribean or gulf. This increases landfalls on the united states. 2005 and 2020 were similar in this way.

[SoupBone]

Strong SAL and above avg eastern Atlantic shear allow for the wave to advance westward where it forms in the western portion of the Atlantic, carribean or gulf. This increases landfalls on the united states. 2005 and 2020 were similar in this way.

Great discussions outside of the topic of 94L. SAL seems to only impede development temporarily, allowing these systems to get closer to landfall rather than forming and curving out to sea. But is there data to support that theory? Maybe we need a dedicated topic on this.

[hurricanehunter69]

Should we be concerned about the relative lack of SAL so far?

I always felt like SAL was the most overrated indicator for forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity. Sure it can suppress TCG in the moment. But I remember Michael Lowry mentioning in the past but above-normal levels of SAL in July were actually correlated with more active seasons. Last year we had that record-breaking SAL outbreak in late June, and 2020 was the most active season on record (though not particularly a MDR Iheavy year, but I don't think the June SAL outbreak had any impact on the peak season activity in the MDR).

As much as I hate to make a reference to 2005, I can't help but remember record low SAL that year.

[Aric Dunn]

Better watch this closely overnight.. Convection building under the MLC and curved low level inflow becoming more pronounced. if convection persists overnight.. this has a decent shot.

[abajan]

Better watch this closely overnight.. Convection building under the MLC and curved low level inflow becoming more pronounced. if convection persists overnight.. this has a decent shot.

Yep. I've been noticing the rebuilding convection over the last several hours.

[toad strangler]

Crazy that we have an MDR invest right now despite everyone talking about the cool SSTs. If it warms back to average temps again, watch out.

Favorable background state can trump minor negative SST anomalies. That's what we have. We'll see. So much time left before peak season kickoff.

[cycloneye]

That's all folks.

Showers and thunderstorms continued to diminish in association with
a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Development of this system is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Props to 94L for existing in this spot in June On to the next one

[Stormybajan]

That's all folks.

Showers and thunderstorms continued to diminish in association with
a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Development of this system is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

RIP 94L I guess it was June too soon for our big guy , will still monitor it though just out of curiosity

[Aric Dunn]

far too early to kill the invest.

[Shell Mound]

far too early to kill the invest.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1404743990860148740



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1404745959897108483



 https://twitter.com/KalTellefsenWX/status/1404922072141344768

[Deshaunrob17]

Loved seeing persons went wild posting hurricane models first run for 94l. We should know better about these hurricane models and their first run

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better this morning as expected.

[tolakram]

Loved seeing persons went wild posting hurricane models first run for 94l. We should know better about these hurricane models and their first run

What are you referring too?

[Stormybajan]

Loved seeing persons went wild posting hurricane models first run for 94l. We should know better about these hurricane models and their first run

What are you referring too?

He means in the models thread for 94L, the second post there has intensity model guidance and basically all of them were at hurricane strength or higher (one even at Cat 4), but in anycase I see 94L still has some life in it needs to stay low enough to avoid the SAL if it wants to do anything significant

[tolakram]

Loved seeing persons went wild posting hurricane models first run for 94l. We should know better about these hurricane models and their first run

What are you referring too?

He means in the models thread for 94L, the second post there has intensity model guidance and basically all of them were at hurricane strength or higher (one even at Cat 4), but in anycase I see 94L still has some life in it needs to stay low enough to avoid the SAL if it wants to do anything significant

'Persons' did not go wild, those were the model outputs that are normally posted at the start of an invest. I don't like the implication that 'persons' were responsible as it sure looks like it's making fun of S2K members.

[Ubuntwo]

Loved seeing persons went wild posting hurricane models first run for 94l. We should know better about these hurricane models and their first run

What are you referring too?

He means in the models thread for 94L, the second post there has intensity model guidance and basically all of them were at hurricane strength or higher (one even at Cat 4), but in anycase I see 94L still has some life in it needs to stay low enough to avoid the SAL if it wants to do anything significant

That was statistical guidance (plus consensus models building off that), which really shouldn't be used when a system significantly strays from climatology in time/location. Only one global model, the GFS, ever developed this and it was pretty transient.

If this does ever develop, it will have been quite the sleeper wave.

[AutoPenalti]

Loved seeing persons went wild posting hurricane models first run for 94l. We should know better about these hurricane models and their first run

You're in the WRONG place to be posting that.