BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
...DOLORES EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 102.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 102.8 West. Dolores is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed
is expected tonight through early Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern
or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon.
Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of
the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes landfall
Saturday afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter, and
Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning later tonight or on Saturday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions
are also possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Latto
Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Deep convection has been trying to consolidate closer to the
estimated center of Dolores over the past several hours, suggesting
that the broad circulation of the cyclone may be starting to
contract. The CIMSS ADT and SATCON indicated some strengthening
since the previous advisory, which justified increasing the storm's
intensity to 45 kt for the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. The
recent Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are in
agreement with this value, and therefore 45 kt will be this
advisory's initial intensity.
Dolores is moving to the northwest at 8 kt around the periphery of a
mid-level ridge to its east. A turn to the north-northwest along
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur through
Sunday morning. There is about 120 n mi of spread in the track
guidance at 24 h, and with the cyclone's angle of approach to the
coast of Mexico, a variation in the track produces a large
difference in the coastlines potentially affected by Dolores. The
westernmost guidance has the center of the cyclone clipping the
coast just north of Manzanillo in about 24 h, while the easternmost
solutions make landfall in about 18 h near Punta San Telmo. Overall,
the guidance has shifted little this evening, and therefore the
latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, which lies
near the various multi-model track consensus. This track would take
the center of Dolores across the coast between Punta San Telmo and
Manzanillo early Saturday afternoon.
The surrounding environmental conditions are favorable for Dolores
to continue to strengthen, with the main inhibiting factor being the
broad circulation as indicated by an ASCAT overpass earlier this
afternoon. Dolores is currently forecast to peak at an intensity of
55 kt by late Saturday morning before making landfall. How much the
circulation consolidates over the next 12-18 h will likely determine
if the peak intensity of Dolores prior to landfall is higher or
lower than indicated. After landfall, Dolores should rapidly weaken
over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, with the guidance in good
agreement on dissipating the cyclone by Sunday morning. Other than
indicating an earlier dissipation, the new NHC intensity forecast
has changed little from the previous one.
Key Messages:
1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and early
on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of
the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
