EPAC: DOLORES - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 94, 2021061706, , BEST, 0, 125N, 990W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 130, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, ep772021 to ep942021,

[Kingarabian]

Finally.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this disturbance, and
a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the
system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the Mexican states
of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next
few days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro:

[Kingarabian]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 06/17/21 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 47 46 44 43 44 46 47 47 47 46 46
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 26 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 13 11 11 10 16 10 5 8 6 14 14 17 20 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 0 0 3 6 8 1 1 2 2 -3 -1 0 1 5
SHEAR DIR 65 65 59 71 64 115 163 189 233 345 342 337 355 55 69 72 82
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.1 27.9 27.3 27.2 26.4 27.5 27.4 26.2 26.1 28.1 28.6 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 160 159 162 165 144 137 135 126 135 135 124 123 144 150 124
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 11 12 16 13 11 7 6 2
700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 85 84 80 80 74 67 59 54 53 58 55 63 59 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 11 13 10 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 45 36 57 67 67 64 83 67 47 22 28 69 82 27 43 35 56
200 MB DIV 121 119 125 109 97 99 106 54 32 -18 -3 -38 30 -3 51 -17 -4
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -3 -4 -3 2 4 10 2 -4 1 3 -1 0
LAND (KM) 298 332 319 287 251 133 -35 -234 -347 -398 -357 -357 -360 -184 -15 162 181
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.9 17.9 20.1 22.1 23.5 24.0 23.7 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.8 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.8 101.3 101.8 102.0 101.7 101.3 101.3 102.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 4 5 8 11 11 8 5 1 3 7 8 8 8 10
HEAT CONTENT 30 28 26 26 26 27 7 4 5 0 8 7 0 0 7 8 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 324 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 39. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 3. -2. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 27. 26. 24. 23. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. 26.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 99.0

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.48 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -3.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.0% 24.3% 11.5% 6.6% 1.1% 36.8% 72.0% 30.3%
Bayesian: 0.3% 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Consensus: 0.8% 8.6% 4.3% 2.3% 0.4% 12.3% 24.0% 10.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS makes it a hurricane:

[Yellow Evan]

A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends several hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this disturbance, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at
5 to 10 mph, near the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco
during the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 06/17/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 26 30 34 37 38 38 41 42 46 44 42 43
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 10 8 14 24 30 25 23 23 27 17 13 15 13 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 4 8 7 2 -3 -2 5 2 3 0 2 0 7
SHEAR DIR 354 344 334 334 319 238 232 249 280 300 321 297 323 300 9 22 38
SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.3 27.9 27.6 28.2 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.0 28.5 25.8 25.6 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 152 147 138 145 141 146 154 157 158 153 149 121 119 124
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 4 7 6 11 9 17 13 19 10 14 9 11 4
700-500 MB RH 86 86 88 87 84 83 76 67 60 55 52 53 61 59 60 55 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 62 77 86 82 72 94 75 60 7 29 33 39 41 -1 -5 8 45
200 MB DIV 88 99 105 110 110 95 72 27 -3 30 -8 7 61 10 0 -21 -14
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -4 2 3 6 12 15 25 -6 -6 3 -4 0 -3
LAND (KM) 212 168 108 37 -46 -230 -235 -337 -386 -313 -213 -164 -240 -377 -416 -268 -69
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.3 18.5 21.1 23.6 25.6 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.4 96.7 97.0 97.3 98.5 99.9 101.1 101.4 100.6 99.6 99.1 99.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 14 15 12 8 6 4 3 6 8 9 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 27 25 21 20 14 5 5 9 6 4 4 4 4 6 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 40. 42. 43. 43. 45.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -15. -17. -18. -17. -18. -22. -23.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 21. 22. 26. 24. 22. 23.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 96.0

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.54 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 0.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.3% 48.8% 28.8% 21.5% 4.1% 61.5% 45.6% 4.7%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.5% 16.5% 9.8% 7.2% 1.4% 20.6% 15.2% 1.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 171222
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 13.6N

D. 99.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS BANDING GREATER THAN 2/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS brings a hurricane into Colima for 2 days.

[Astromanía]

This type of cyclones are always the worst for Mexico, they don't have to be hurricanes to bring catastrophic damage in that area, the great amount of rain to the Sierra Madre del Sur produce a lot of mudlides for the poorest states in the country, unfortunately I may expect many deaths from this, I hope the goverment start evacuations soon

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An elongated area of low pressure, located a little over a hundred
miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico, is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days, which could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of this system through the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2021061718, , BEST, 0, 142N, 997W, 25, 1007, LO

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF caves to GFS and now brings this onshore near the Colima/Michoacan border.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 171816
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 17/1730Z

C. 14.2N

D. 99.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS A ELONGATED LOOSELY DEFINED SPIRAL AND A LLCC
LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES AWAY FROM LARGE ACTIVE CONVECTION RESULTING IN
A SHEAR PATTERN DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER DEFINITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET peaks it @ 989mb.

Models showing a stronger TC now that the track has shifted west before landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942021 06/17/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 47 56 54 48 45 43 42 43 45 47 49 48 50
V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 40 47 56 54 48 45 43 42 43 45 47 49 48 50
V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 40 38 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 11 7 8 11 15 14 22 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 4 3 9 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 58 67 71 79 105 115 131 149 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.3 29.0 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 166 166 165 157 153 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 79 78 74 69 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 16 16 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 71 64 71 84 89 83 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 122 123 84 81 111 102 86 93 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 257 247 237 228 229 169 108 48 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 30 31 32 31 29 25 16 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 393 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 41. 44. 47. 50. 53.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. -2. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 22. 31. 29. 23. 20. 18. 17. 18. 20. 22. 24. 23. 25.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 99.7

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 7.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 5.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.51 3.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 1.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 40.2% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 32.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 16.6% 63.8% 42.4% 31.4% 8.2% 61.0% 39.6% 10.5%
Bayesian: 4.5% 17.9% 17.5% 5.4% 0.1% 4.0% 2.5% 0.5%
Consensus: 7.0% 40.6% 27.6% 12.3% 2.8% 29.4% 24.9% 3.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 17.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS brings this into Colima and starts to deepen this tomorrow.