ATL: CLAUDETTE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...CLAUDETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 80.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 80.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31
km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across
portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,
and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to
become a tropical storm again by early Monday over eastern North
Carolina. Some additional strengthening is possible over the
western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected
to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Through Monday morning, Claudette is expected to produce
additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 5 inches across portions of southeastern Georgia, central
and coastal South Carolina, and south-central to eastern North
Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well
as isolated minor river flooding are possible across these areas.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday
across parts of the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch





Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and
northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself
is not very well defined. Coastal surface observations indicate
that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt. Some
additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is
expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the
Atlantic on Monday. A little more intensification could occur
while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream
during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast.
Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the
global models suggest that the system will lose tropical
characteristics, or even open up into a trough.

Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current
motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt. On the projected
track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow.
The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern
United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east-
northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours. The
official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to
the model consensus TVCN.

No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United
States coasts are required at this time.


Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday
morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible across these areas.

2. A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across
parts of the coastal Carolinas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 34.7N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 35.9N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0000Z 38.1N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 44.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/1200Z 47.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

The elongated low-level center of Claudette is located over eastern
North Carolina this morning, while a curved band of convection
continues pushing eastward across the adjacent coastal and offshore
waters. Surface pressures have fallen slightly overnight near the
estimated center position, and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 off the
coast of southeastern North Carolina reported a brief period of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds shortly after 06 UTC.
Therefore, Claudette's initial intensity is raised to 35 kt with
this advisory, making it a tropical storm once again.

Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward as it is
steered by a mid- to upper-level trough that is approaching the
eastern United States. The storm will move off the North Carolina
coast within the next few hours, and a bit more strengthening is
possible today as it passes near the north wall of the Gulf Stream.
The official NHC forecast hangs onto Claudette as a tropical cyclone
through tonight, then quickly transitions it to a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 h. The time of dissipation is also moved up a day
earlier with this advisory, which is consistent with the latest
global model fields that show an open trough approaching Atlantic
Canada. Otherwise, the official NHC forecast remains very similar to
the previous one, and the track closely follows the multi-model
consensus.

Some of the global guidance suggests that Claudette could lose its
closed low-level circulation and open up into a trough soon after
emerging into the western Atlantic Ocean later today. Given the
current poor center definition, it is a plausible alternative
scenario that Claudette dissipates faster than shown below.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue over the North Carolina
coast this morning. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast through this morning, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 35.6N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/1800Z 37.0N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 22/0600Z 39.5N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 42.8N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...CLAUDETTE NEARING THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 76.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...45 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for eastern North Carolina has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was
located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 76.3 West. Claudette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (45 km/h). An
east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the system will cross into the western Atlantic
Ocean later this morning, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are occurring mostly over water,southeast of
Claudette's center. Some additional slight strengthening is
possible over the western Atlantic Ocean today. Claudette is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon and
dissipate late Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center in the southeastern quadrant.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected across
far eastern North Carolina over the next few hours. Isolated flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Claudette's low-level center is estimated to be back over water.
However, it is difficult to locate in surface observation data due
to the broad inner-core wind field and elongated pressure envelope
near the NC/VA coasts in which the cyclone is embedded. For now, the
surface center has been placed close to the low- to mid-level
circulation center noted in KAKQ and KMHX Doppler radar data. The
initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 1200 UTC
32-kt wind report from ship 3EVZ8 located about 130 nmi southeast of
the center.

Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward and the motion
is now 060/24 kt. The track forecast and discussion remain pretty
straightforward. Claudette is now caught up in the deep-layer
west-southwesterly flow on the north side of a broad subtropical
ridge and ahead of a mid-latitude trough currently moving into the
eastern and southeastern United States. The cyclone or its remnants
will gradually lift out toward the northeast ahead of the
approaching mid-latitude trough by tonight, with that motion
continuing through Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of consensus
track models TVCA, GFEX, and HCCA.

As Claudette continues to accelerate, its increased forward speed
could result in the low-level wind field opening up into a trough,
which would result in the cessation of the system as a tropical
cyclone. For now, however, the assumption is that the cyclone could
strengthen a little more, which would allow for the surface wind
field to remain closed today and into Tuesday until the system
weakens over the cold North Atlantic waters north of the Gulf
Stream, which is located along roughly 38N latitude. As a result,
Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in
about 24 h, follows by dissipation in about 48 h. The official NHC
intensity forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the
track closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

Key Message:

1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue to diminish this morning
across far southeast Virginia and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 37.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 38.7N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 41.8N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0000Z 44.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Claudette's low-level center passed over or near buoy 44014 (east of
Virginia Beach) around 1400 UTC, and was associated with a sharp
south-to-north wind shift and an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. In
addition, buoy 41001, located in the southeastern quadrant of the
cyclone's circulation, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 kt
at around 1600 UTC. Based on these data, the intensity has been
increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a satellite classification
of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 060/25 kt. Claudette is expected to
continue in a general east-northeastward direction through tonight
ahead of a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system that is
moving across the eastern United States. By early Tuesday, the
cyclone is forecast move northeastward at a slightly faster forward
speed over the colder waters of the far northwestern Atlantic. The
new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track,
and lies down the center of the tightly packed track model guidance
suite.

Claudette has likely peaked in intensity, and little change in
strength is expected due to the cyclone currently moving over
sub-23-deg-C sea-surface temperatures with even colder water ahead
of the storm. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical
extratropical low in the 12-24-hour period, but that transition
could occur sooner. The latest official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity
consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 37.5N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 39.5N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 42.8N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 46.0N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Remnants Of Claudette Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021

Recent scatterometer data show that the system has opened up into a
northwest to southeast-oriented trough. Therefore Claudette has
dissipated as a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The
remnants of Claudette should continue to move rapidly
east-northeastward and weaken over the next day or so.

Additional information on the remnants of Claudette can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 39.0N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch