WPAC: CHAMPI - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

LLC appears to becoming much more defined but it is under westerly shear.

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN31 PGTW 211500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 12.1N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.4N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.3N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.2N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 32.1N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 144.8E.
21JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED 50 KT WIND RADII TO TAU 72
AND TAU 96.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

The exposed/partially-exposed LLCC shows up nicely on radar.

[Hayabusa]

Now issuing warning

Tropical Cyclonea
Issued at 2021/06/22 01:30 UTC
Analisys at 06/22 00 UTC
Category TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N13°25′(13.4°)
E143°35′(143.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 1010hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Forecast at 06/23 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N15°20′(15.3°)
E140°25′(140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)
Forecast at 06/24 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N17°40′(17.7°)
E138°55′(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 240km(130NM)
Forecast at 06/25 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N20°10′(20.2°)
E137°55′(137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)
Forecast at 06/26 00 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N25°40′(25.7°)
E138°25′(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)
Forecast at 06/27 00 UTC
Category TS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N32°10′(32.2°)
E140°30′(140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(390NM)

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

Maybe this storm can do magic... ofc have to be ideal but it's a small system too so.

[Sciencerocks]

Still under westerly and southwesterly shear so the LLC is exposed with the convection being northeast of it.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.4N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.8N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.6N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 29.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 36.3N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 140.5E.
22JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Now named Champion I mean Champi.

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2105 CHAMPI (2105) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.7N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM

[Meow]

Now named Champion I mean Champi.

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2105 CHAMPI (2105) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 15.7N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM

A relatively harmless track.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 140.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 140.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.5N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.9N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 24.7N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 30.1N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 37.3N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 140.6E.
23JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 06W (CHAMPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397
NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Now STS, peak forecast up to typhoon intensity

TY2105(Champi)
Issued at 2021/06/24 00:45 UTC
Analisys at 06/24 00 UTC
Category STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N19°20′(19.3°)
E140°0′(140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
30-kt wind area E280km(150NM)
W220km(120NM)
Forecast at 06/25 00 UTC
Category STS
Intensity -
Center of probability circle N21°30′(21.5°)
E138°55′(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 95km(50NM)
Storm warning area WIDE150km(80NM)
Forecast at 06/26 00 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N25°0′(25.0°)
E139°0′(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 165km(90NM)
Storm warning area WIDE220km(120NM)

[ElectricStorm]

JTWC barely even has it as a TS
06W CHAMPI 210624 0000 18.6N 140.0E WPAC 35 1007

[Yellow Evan]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it might be trying to get its act together now

[Kingarabian]

SAB up to 4.0/4.0
ADT @ 3.6.

[cycloneye]

Up to 4.5.

24/2330 UTC 20.9N 139.2E T4.5/4.5 CHAMPI -- West Pacific



A. 06W (CHAMPI)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 20.9N

D. 139.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN A EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN DT
OF 4.5. MET IS 4.0 AND PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
OF CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Hayabusa]

Almost typhoon, new peak 70 knots

TY2105(Champi)
Issued at 2021/06/25 00:50 UTC

Analisys at 06/25 00 UTC
Category STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N20°35′(20.6°)
E139°25′(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE45km(25NM)
30-kt wind area WIDE280km(150NM)
Forecast at 06/26 00 UTC
Category TY
Intensity Strong
Center of probability circle N23°40′(23.7°)
E138°20′(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 95km(50NM)
Storm warning area WIDE150km(80NM)