BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
...ENRIQUE NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 105.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico
A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later tonight or tomorrow.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northwest is expected later tonight with the storm maintaining a
northwest heading for the next several days. On the forecast track,
the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel
to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible in the
short term, but Enrique is expected to begin weakening early
next week as it begins moving over cooler waters.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern
portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The
hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of
an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry
air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner
core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also
be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the
cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite
estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The
latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70
kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity
of 75 kt for this advisory.
Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated
motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As
discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the
northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm
weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four
Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is
more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are
some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and
HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE
consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for
the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting
a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that
direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the
forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast
with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any
additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane
watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or
tomorrow.
Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent
disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its
eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance
indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little
earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative
factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased
from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little
additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward
motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional
dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to
lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter
portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below
26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating
into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the
forecast.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
...ENRIQUE NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 105.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico
A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later tonight or tomorrow.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northwest is expected later tonight with the storm maintaining a
northwest heading for the next several days. On the forecast track,
the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel
to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible in the
short term, but Enrique is expected to begin weakening early
next week as it begins moving over cooler waters.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern
portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The
hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of
an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry
air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner
core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also
be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the
cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite
estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The
latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70
kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity
of 75 kt for this advisory.
Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated
motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As
discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the
northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm
weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four
Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is
more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are
some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and
HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE
consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for
the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting
a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that
direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the
forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast
with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any
additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane
watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or
tomorrow.
Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent
disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its
eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance
indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little
earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative
factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased
from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little
additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward
motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional
dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to
lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter
portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below
26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating
into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the
forecast.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
