ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Stormybajan]

Once again 95L is trying a bit at night. Another convective blowup however as we have seen before will it hold? it should be in slightly warmer waters now to hold it together better but we will just have to keep watching over the next several hours

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is moving in to some really dry air though

[Category5Kaiju]

Here's the bottomline: imho I don't think 95L will really amount to something significant. It may be a weak to moderate TS at most, but I think the conditions it is moving into are going to be rough, with shear and dry air the biggest enemies for it. Things can obviously change, but I think compared to what we had like a week or so ago my guess is that it will go over the Lesser Antilles and then crash into Hispanola, where it will most likely be finished due to the terrain and hostile atmospheric conditions. If anything I think the models may be onto something regarding the wave behind it, but either way I am still going to give credit to 95L even if it does not become a NS as it was a truly remarkable sight for the first month of hurricane season.

[colbroe]

95L is looking much better this morning should be bumped up to 70% this morning problems for the lesser Antillies in a day or so.

[JRD]

Shear looks strong where it'll be heading.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Chemmers]

Looking better and better with each hour, think we might say 50/70 maybe

[aspen]

HWRF is no longer developing this. Maybe it picks it back up later, but as someone else suggested earlier, maybe this wave acts to make the environment favorable ahead of the second wave that the GFS has developed into a hurricane for two runs in a row.

[Aric Dunn]

Best this has looked since leaving africa.. good chance we get something if convection holds today.

[Weatherboy1]

First post for the 2021 season here (though I have been reading contributions of others). As some have noted already, 95 looks a LOT different now than at any point over the last few days. Definitely think its chances are on the upswing, and this will be noted in today's NHC outlooks. Will it jump straight to a TD soon? That's a bit of a stretch. But if we keep seeing deep convection firing and the structure of the wave improve, can't rule it out.

[Aric Dunn]

Well we know there was well defined LLC/Vort max yesterday... this looks just a little suspicious.. Small systems will often go unnoticed by ASCAT. this of course was 6 hours ago..

[Stormybajan]

Well we know there was well defined LLC/Vort max yesterday... this looks just a little suspicious.. Small systems will often go unnoticed by ASCAT. this of course was 6 hours ago..

https://i.ibb.co/74gSFzk/12.png

https://i.ibb.co/ccRMNPp/13.png

https://i.ibb.co/Qvp9Xmv/Capture.png

Thats suspicious indeed..will need to hold itself together though as you said earlier. We all know quick these tiny systems can intensify and also how easily they can be hindered

[HurricaneEnzo]

This thing looked like it was toast yesterday. Still out here fighting though.

[Cat5James]

Decent outflow.... is the main blob going to split from that "cord" connecting with 97L?

[Aric Dunn]

Decent outflow.... is the main blob going to split from that "cord" connecting with 97L?

Nope, that is a normal occurrence. all low pressure systems create lines of convergence between them. They will look connected until one dies or land causes the low level convergence to be disrupted

[Shell Mound]

First post for the 2021 season here (though I have been reading contributions of others). As some have noted already, 95 looks a LOT different now than at any point over the last few days. Definitely think its chances are on the upswing, and this will be noted in today's NHC outlooks. Will it jump straight to a TD soon? That's a bit of a stretch. But if we keep seeing deep convection firing and the structure of the wave improve, can't rule it out.

Currently there is no sign of a mid-level circulation, much less a low-level centre. Additionally, even the ECMWF, especially its ensemble, has, like the GFS and HWRF, been too aggressive with tropical waves thus far in 2021. Over the past few days it showed 95L becoming a tropical storm by now, and that obviously has not transpired. VWS due to the TUTT should remain fairly strong and even increase as 95L bypasses the Lesser Antilles. Overall, I highly doubt that this system will become a depression or named storm, given model biases observed to date, the current absence of structural organisation, and current and expected VWS.

[Aric Dunn]

First post for the 2021 season here (though I have been reading contributions of others). As some have noted already, 95 looks a LOT different now than at any point over the last few days. Definitely think its chances are on the upswing, and this will be noted in today's NHC outlooks. Will it jump straight to a TD soon? That's a bit of a stretch. But if we keep seeing deep convection firing and the structure of the wave improve, can't rule it out.

Currently there is no sign of a mid-level circulation, much less a low-level centre. Additionally, even the ECMWF, especially its ensemble, has, like the GFS and HWRF, been too aggressive with tropical waves thus far in 2021. Over the past few days it showed 95L becoming a tropical storm by now, and that obviously has not transpired. VWS due to the TUTT should remain fairly strong and even increase as 95L bypasses the Lesser Antilles. Overall, I highly doubt that this system will become a depression or named storm, given model biases observed to date, the current absence of structural organisation, and current and expected VWS.

and not one model developed Danny.. obviously, that did not happen... Darn those Model biases

[Cat5James]

First post for the 2021 season here (though I have been reading contributions of others). As some have noted already, 95 looks a LOT different now than at any point over the last few days. Definitely think its chances are on the upswing, and this will be noted in today's NHC outlooks. Will it jump straight to a TD soon? That's a bit of a stretch. But if we keep seeing deep convection firing and the structure of the wave improve, can't rule it out.

Currently there is no sign of a mid-level circulation, much less a low-level centre. Additionally, even the ECMWF, especially its ensemble, has, like the GFS and HWRF, been too aggressive with tropical waves thus far in 2021. Over the past few days it showed 95L becoming a tropical storm by now, and that obviously has not transpired. VWS due to the TUTT should remain fairly strong and even increase as 95L bypasses the Lesser Antilles. Overall, I highly doubt that this system will become a depression or named storm, given model biases observed to date, the current absence of structural organisation, and current and expected VWS.

There is a clear vorticity signature at 850mb... let's see how 95L progresses through the day

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7117/6rrTE5.gif

Despite an apparent outflow boundary, that looks pretty serious to me.

[Stormybajan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/7117/6rrTE5.gif

Despite an apparent outflow boundary, that looks pretty serious to me.

The thing is I think those images are delayed by like 4 hours ..right now its not doing so hot. Dry air seems to be the issue right now but 95L has always been a night kind of system so tonight is where the action will be closely watched
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/