ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

The fact that we have 95L alone is very stunning. I would also be curious to see how the waves behind it do, but I can tell it's going to be a looong season...

[Aric Dunn]

Wel we now know what has been sustaining the convective pulses each afternoon and overnight the last couple days..

A small well defined LLC ( Gonzalo size).... will convection pop again is the question.. so as to maintain the circ another day or so until better environment.

[JRD]

It's now disconnected from the monsoon trough. The monsoon trough is what kept 95L stronger than expected in these conditions, and now that's disconnected, 95L is weakening pretty fast. No westerlies to spin a cyclonic circulation either.

[AlphaToOmega]

Invest 95L is very close to 45 W. If it can make it, it will have a decent shot.

[Deshaunrob17]

I'm honestly surprised that we have not seen another yellow lemon in the MDR as yet.... Yet again I can see why the NHC being hesitant- back to back cyclones (literally within a couple of days) affecting the Antllies in early July is highly anomalous...HWRf- P 6z run had my jaws dropping

[sma10]

And now with Danny forming this afternoon, if 95L develops prior to July 5, it will have the chance of being the earliest ever "E" storm, breaking the record set way back in 2020

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021062818, , BEST, 0, 121N, 433W, 30, 1009, DB

[Aric Dunn]

Small cluster of towers starting to fire over the LLC... will this be the start of what the HWRF is showing??

big increase in convection from the last several HWRF runs.

[AutoPenalti]

Small cluster of towers starting to fire over the LLC... will this be the start of what the HWRF is showing??

big increase in convection from the last several HWRF runs.

https://i.ibb.co/ZxmZn6y/LABELS-19700101-000000-26.gif

Looks like DMIN.

[aspen]

Small cluster of towers starting to fire over the LLC... will this be the start of what the HWRF is showing??

big increase in convection from the last several HWRF runs.

https://i.ibb.co/ZxmZn6y/LABELS-19700101-000000-26.gif

The most recent HWRF run did show convection increasing substantially starting tonight. We’ll have to wait and see, but 2020 and 2019 have shown it goes a pretty good job with short-term convective trends and structures.

[Stormybajan]

Small cluster of towers starting to fire over the LLC... will this be the start of what the HWRF is showing??

big increase in convection from the last several HWRF runs.

https://i.ibb.co/ZxmZn6y/LABELS-19700101-000000-26.gif

Awww its so tiny and cute , lol but seriously if it can sustain that tiny convection and continue to grow towards DMAX tonight it will be a significant push towards development later

[captainbarbossa19]

We have seen worse looking storms before. I am starting to think that the NHC generally likes to name anything that spins close to land even if it does not meet their own published standards for tropical development. The ones at sea are getting treated more critically because they do not pose threats to land. I feel like the old NHC was more objective of their treatment of storms regardless of how close to land they were. This is what I am thinking, but I could be wrong.

[Category5Kaiju]

We have seen worse looking storms before. I am starting to think that the NHC generally likes to name anything that spins close to land even if it does not meet their own published standards for tropical development. The ones at sea are getting treated more critically because they do not pose threats to land. I feel like the old NHC was more objective of their treatment of storms regardless of how close to land they were. This is what I am thinking, but I could be wrong.

I could be wrong too, but I think the reason why NHC has named storms very close to land is sometimes being close to land actually does help a developing system to concentrate thanks to friction with land. In open water this is very hard to do, and of course not every storm is the same, but as we saw with Claudette this year as well, land can actually help boost a system's odds of becoming a bona fide TS (but then of course the system would weakn over land, unless the freak brown ocean effect comes into play).

[Ubuntwo]

We have seen worse looking storms before. I am starting to think that the NHC generally likes to name anything that spins close to land even if it does not meet their own published standards for tropical development. The ones at sea are getting treated more critically because they do not pose threats to land. I feel like the old NHC was more objective of their treatment of storms regardless of how close to land they were. This is what I am thinking, but I could be wrong.

I hope you're not referring to the storm offshore SC with a recon-confirmed closed circulation, sharp pressure gradient, warm core, and overtopped by convection and weak banding.

Anyways, ASCAT earlier today had an open wave axis with no hint of westerlies whatsoever. There is decent vorticity but any circulation is system-relative not earth-relative. If deep convection can persist on the north end of the wave axis we may see that trough start to pinch off. Nothing for now.

[captainbarbossa19]

We have seen worse looking storms before. I am starting to think that the NHC generally likes to name anything that spins close to land even if it does not meet their own published standards for tropical development. The ones at sea are getting treated more critically because they do not pose threats to land. I feel like the old NHC was more objective of their treatment of storms regardless of how close to land they were. This is what I am thinking, but I could be wrong.

I hope you're not referring to the storm offshore SC with a recon-confirmed closed circulation, sharp pressure gradient, warm core, and overtopped by convection and weak banding.

Anyways, ASCAT earlier today had an open wave axis with no hint of westerlies whatsoever. There is decent vorticity but any circulation is system-relative not earth-relative. If deep convection can persist on the north end of the wave axis we may see that trough start to pinch off. Nothing for now.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/859172986186498088/LATEST.png?width=676&height=676

It is true that this system does not have sufficient organization to be classified, and that Danny is more organized, but there have been other instances where it seemed rather subjective. To me, Claudette should not have been named, but there have been others that should have been. I remember there was a system that produced flooding rain over Louisiana a few years ago, but did not get even a depression designation. The system had tropical characteristics. I think at the minimum, classification standards have been greatly loosened. However, the official standards for designation have not been updated to account for these changes. I think that the NHC should either follow their already published standards or change them to eliminate the confusion. The one thing they should not do is publish standards and then make exceptions to them frequently.

[tolakram]

We have seen worse looking storms before. I am starting to think that the NHC generally likes to name anything that spins close to land even if it does not meet their own published standards for tropical development. The ones at sea are getting treated more critically because they do not pose threats to land. I feel like the old NHC was more objective of their treatment of storms regardless of how close to land they were. This is what I am thinking, but I could be wrong.

I think that is correct and matches their mission statement. In addition, because this low pressure area could not sustain convection I don't think it's a TD. That's subjective though, as all declarations are subjective. I said this in the Danny thread ... we made up what a TD, TS, and Hurricane are. There are no pure scientific definitions of these storms other than the fact they are tropical in nature.

So first to even be a tropical cyclone it has to meet this criteria:

Tropical Cyclone
A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system (not associated with a front) that develops over tropical and sometimes sub-tropical waters and has organized deep convection with a closed wind circulation about a well-defined center.

Only then can it be categorized based on wind speed.

I think each of us has a different definition of organized convection.

[Hammy]

We have seen worse looking storms before. I am starting to think that the NHC generally likes to name anything that spins close to land even if it does not meet their own published standards for tropical development. The ones at sea are getting treated more critically because they do not pose threats to land. I feel like the old NHC was more objective of their treatment of storms regardless of how close to land they were. This is what I am thinking, but I could be wrong.

I hope you're not referring to the storm offshore SC with a recon-confirmed closed circulation, sharp pressure gradient, warm core, and overtopped by convection and weak banding.

Anyways, ASCAT earlier today had an open wave axis with no hint of westerlies whatsoever. There is decent vorticity but any circulation is system-relative not earth-relative. If deep convection can persist on the north end of the wave axis we may see that trough start to pinch off. Nothing for now.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/859172986186498088/LATEST.png?width=676&height=676

It is true that this system does not have sufficient organization to be classified, and that Danny is more organized, but there have been other instances where it seemed rather subjective. To me, Claudette should not have been named, but there have been others that should have been. I remember there was a system that produced flooding rain over Louisiana a few years ago, but did not get even a depression designation. The system had tropical characteristics. I think at the minimum, classification standards have been greatly loosened. However, the official standards for designation have not been updated to account for these changes. I think that the NHC should either follow their already published standards or change them to eliminate the confusion. The one thing they should not do is publish standards and then make exceptions to them frequently.

There are reasons as to why all of those listed were or were not classified though, and are not in any way shape or form exceptions to the standards. The system in 2016(?) over Louisiana was centered over a hundred miles inland by the time the low pressure formed (in fact if I recall it formed over southern Georgia) and was pretty much similar to the Indian inland monsoonal lows as this did not originate over water as Claudette did. Claudette was upgraded because it already had a closed low pressure, they were waiting on it to become defined enough to count--and it did so as it was coming ashore.

95L is not classifiable under any standards that have been used since the 1970s, as it has not had a defined circulation at any point, and was not even closed in the first place for the last several days. I don't recall any instance in which an open wave was named outside of maintaining already-named systems to see if they closed back off.

[AlphaToOmega]

The low is quite close to 45 W. It should be in a more favorable environment right now.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021062900, , BEST, 0, 118N, 450W, 30, 1009, DB

[aspen]

The low is quite close to 45 W. It should be in a more favorable environment right now.

I think 50-55W is when SSTs really get favorable, but regardless, 95L only has a little bit of time left before it reaches better SSTs.