ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Models

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aspen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#41 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 28, 2021 6:26 am

The 6z HWRF has 95L become TS Danny (or Elsa, if 96L gets named) by late Wednesday. That’s only two days out.

Update: it doesn’t get as strong in the Caribbean as last run, and then goes right through the mountains of the DR and dies. Similar to Dorian’s original track, before it decided to go through the gap near PR.
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#42 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:17 pm

Gfs… :double:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#43 Postby abajan » Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:29 pm


I think that's the wave following 95L, though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#44 Postby aspen » Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:33 pm

abajan wrote:

I think that's the wave following 95L, though.

Yep, that’s future 97L (assuming the NHC ever starts tracking it). The models are back to being unenthusiastic with 95L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#45 Postby TimSmith » Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:37 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:0z HWRF develops this into a Caribbean major (no, it's not the wave behind 95L like in past runs)
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/858949250871459870/hwrf_satIR_95L_17.png?width=854&height=676

Looks like we'll be watching this one for a while.

I was waiting for somebody to post this one...

Yeah, I don't quite think this scenario is happening. It's not August.


June is the new August, LOL well maybe July is... but while I'm not buying a major, we have to remember these models use current environment conditions as initial data ( IVCs for the math folks ) and those are generally more physical than climatological so if it's seeing something and especially if it trends we gotta accept what we see. There's a reason NHC shifted there usual start of advisories +15 days... But dang I'm not ready for all that quite yet as an oceanfront resident in FLa :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#46 Postby SFLcane » Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:41 pm

aspen wrote:
abajan wrote:

I think that's the wave following 95L, though.

Yep, that’s future 97L (assuming the NHC ever starts tracking it). The models are back to being unenthusiastic with 95L.


I believe this is 95L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:43 pm



That is the wave begind 95L. Wave axis passes PR by Thursday and the other one by Saturday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#48 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jun 29, 2021 12:46 am

The EPS has certainly been consistently too aggressive with 95L. Just yesterday several members were suggesting a TS or near-TS by now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#49 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jun 29, 2021 6:44 am

Image

06 GFS has a 95L as a TS in @48 hours then a modest hurricane into SW Louisiana in @10 days... GFS developing 95L past few runs... The outcome in the 10 day range is always low probability, but it's always fascinating to me how hurricanes follow patterns and for the past 2 seasons Louisiana has been the target and especially SW Louisiana which historically sees infrequent direct landfalls...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#50 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:10 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/IkCU19u.gif

06 GFS has a 95L as a TS in @48 hours then a modest hurricane into SW Louisiana in @10 days... GFS developing 95L past few runs... The outcome in the 10 day range is always low probability, but it's always fascinating to me how hurricanes follow patterns and for the past 2 seasons Louisiana has been the target and especially SW Louisiana which historically sees infrequent direct landfalls...

Edit, I believe this modeled storm comes from the wave just SE of 95L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#51 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jun 29, 2021 7:11 am

Image
95L still pumping...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#52 Postby abajan » Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:11 am

Blown Away wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/IkCU19u.gif

06 GFS has a 95L as a TS in @48 hours then a modest hurricane into SW Louisiana in @10 days... GFS developing 95L past few runs... The outcome in the 10 day range is always low probability, but it's always fascinating to me how hurricanes follow patterns and for the past 2 seasons Louisiana has been the target and especially SW Louisiana which historically sees infrequent direct landfalls...

Edit, I believe this modeled storm comes from the wave just SE of 95L

Yes, that's the recently designated 97L.
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Re: ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Models

#53 Postby AJC3 » Thu Jul 01, 2021 2:51 pm

The ex-95L threads have been temporarily moved back into TT, since thee were starting to be discussed in the Elsa thread.
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