ATL: DANNY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Some pretty good lightning in that convective blowup.

[Aric Dunn]

LLC has slowed briefly and pulled to SW closer the recent convection. you can see some inflow lines shifting. should help ramp this up to sufficient levels to be a TS

though there is enough data now for an upgrade.


they should also probably back up genesis to yesterday .. but.. that's another story.

[eastcoastFL]

This system is embedded in a large ridge so the pressure should remain very high. I think Recon is showing like 1015 mb, which is above standard atmospheric pressure.

1000 mb would likely be a solid hurricane in this environment, for comparison.

That’s super interesting. I forgot that was even possible.

[Sciencerocks]

Between the radar velocities and smrf it is hard to go against an upgrade. Flight level winds certainly don't match this of course but sometimes this happens.

[wxman57]

Max winds along the SC coast just 45 miles west of the center are 15 kts.

[eastcoastFL]

LLC has slowed briefly and pulled to SW closer the recent convection. you can see some inflow lines shifting. should help ramp this up to sufficient levels to be a TS

though there is enough data now for an upgrade.


they should also probably back up genesis to yesterday .. but.. that's another story.

That last loop it looks like it just dives under the convection. Do you think this will delay landfall ?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Future Danny putting on the ole sneak attack. Waiting until last possible moment then boom.

[Aric Dunn]

LLC has slowed briefly and pulled to SW closer the recent convection. you can see some inflow lines shifting. should help ramp this up to sufficient levels to be a TS

though there is enough data now for an upgrade.


they should also probably back up genesis to yesterday .. but.. that's another story.

That last loop it looks like it just dives under the convection. Do you think this will delay landfall ?

maybe 30 min. nothing crazy. but more interesting is the convection on radar wrapping to the SE side and east side as the center has been pulled in.

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[weeniepatrol]

018
WTNT64 KNHC 281905
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021
305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Doppler radar data from Charleston, South Carolina, along with
preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft,
indicate that the depression has strengthened and is now Tropical
Storm Danny. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph
(65 km/h) with higher gusts.

A Weatherflow station at Folly Beach, South Carolina, recently
reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 305 PM EDT...1905 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[eastcoastFL]

Just got a notification that’s it’s been upgraded. Danny is born

[HurricaneEnzo]

018
WTNT64 KNHC 281905
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021
305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Doppler radar data from Charleston, South Carolina, along with
preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft,
indicate that the depression has strengthened and is now Tropical
Storm Danny. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph
(65 km/h) with higher gusts.

A Weatherflow station at Folly Beach, South Carolina, recently
reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 305 PM EDT...1905 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There you have it. Storm #3 of June and #4 overall.

[tolakram]

[HurricaneEnzo]

Geeze those wikipedia peeps are fast lol. Already listed as Danny.

[Kazmit]

Definitely looks like Danny with that huge blowup of convection that occurred in the nick of time.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[AlphaToOmega]

Tropical Storm Danny is 35 knots at the moment. I think it will peak at 40-45 knots.

[aspen]

This is by far the weakest Danny ever. Using my tropical cyclone intensity scale, Danny is only 0.28 units (35 kt and 1013 mbar at peak so far). By comparison, Claudette was 2.28 units, and Enrique was 30.34 units.

The calculation went like this:

[(1015-1013) x (35-25)]/72.5 = 0.28 units

[AnnularCane]

Looking like another season where just about everything that wants to develop does.

Hi Danny!

[Aric Dunn]

The center has fully embedded up in the deep convection and is wrapping up quickly.