ATL: DANNY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Prosepro]

Surprised we got a named storm out of this, especially given the satellite appearance this morning. Really looked like it had missed it's chance to get upgraded.

Can't remember the last time we've had something track W-WNW this long from that far north of a starting point.

It has been a tropical cyclones for the past 24-30 hours and was probably a 45-50 knot Tropical storm at one point last night. It was clear to me that recon was going to find it as a tropical storm!

OK, yea. Danny will be forgotten by this Fall and will get another chance in another year to be something. Fun to follow something for a few days, but our Florida typical thunderstorms have kick Danny's behind for wind and rain, a few times this month already.

[wxman57]

So far, the peak wind gust (not sustained wind) I've found was 30 kts (KARW). Some heavy rain near Savannah, though.

[AnnularCane]

Surprised we got a named storm out of this, especially given the satellite appearance this morning. Really looked like it had missed it's chance to get upgraded.

Can't remember the last time we've had something track W-WNW this long from that far north of a starting point.

It has been a tropical cyclones for the past 24-30 hours and was probably a 45-50 knot Tropical storm at one point last night. It was clear to me that recon was going to find it as a tropical storm!

Speaking of which, I think there’s a good chance Danny is found to have developed on the 27th in its post-season report. There was a pretty good LLC yesterday, and convection was better organized at times. Not sure about it being a TS earlier than today, though.

I actually kind of hope not because I always feel like I've missed out or something when something like that happens.

[Ubuntwo]

So far, the peak wind gust (not sustained wind) I've found was 30 kts (KARW). Some heavy rain near Savannah, though.

Buoy 41033 was gusting to 37kt. Anemometer is elevated only 3 meters.

[Sciencerocks]

[Prosepro]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/2595/b2l7Uc.gif

How about that outflow boundary all the way to Florida. Might feel it in a bit...

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

...DANNY MAKES LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HILTON HEAD ON PRITCHARDS
ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA...

[wxman57]

So far, the peak wind gust (not sustained wind) I've found was 30 kts (KARW). Some heavy rain near Savannah, though.

Buoy 41033 was gusting to 37kt. Anemometer is elevated only 3 meters.

That's now a 1-min average. Still no evidence of anything remotely close to TS winds on the beaches, not even wind gusts to TS strength. Strongest winds I can find now are 15-20 mph, and all squalls are inland. It started to look a bit impressive early this afternoon, but it weakened since recon left. Most likely a TD at landfall and a weaker TD now.

[ElectricStorm]

I completely agree with the NHC on naming this. Definitely fits the criteria for a TS. Hopefully impacts remain minimal across the affected areas.

One thing I am concerned about that others have mentioned is that so far it appears that this year has a favorable background state just like last year where everything tries to develop...

I'm also getting the feeling that my 16 named storm prediction is going to bust big time

[St0rmTh0r]

Why does this season feel like 2020 part 2 so far? If 95 and 96L form, this start would end up being more active than last year's. Ominous sign.

no kidding 2020 the sequel 2021

[Nederlander]

From well-respected KFDM Met Greg Bostwick:

“The National Hurricane Center this afternoon named the tiny cluster of thunderstorms near Savannah, Georgia Tropical Storm Danny. I strongly disagree with the upgrade as surface pressures are quite high and no surface weather reports support sustained winds of tropical storm force.

It should be noted that there appears to be an increasing tendency by NHC to name storms when in previous years they would have not been classified. In fact, before weather satellites in the early 1960's, none of the current 4 storms would have received a name.”

[Kingarabian]

From well-respected KFDM Met Greg Bostwick:

“The National Hurricane Center this afternoon named the tiny cluster of thunderstorms near Savannah, Georgia Tropical Storm Danny. I strongly disagree with the upgrade as surface pressures are quite high and no surface weather reports support sustained winds of tropical storm force.

It should be noted that there appears to be an increasing tendency by NHC to name storms when in previous years they would have not been classified. In fact, before weather satellites in the early 1960's, none of the current 4 storms would have received a name.”

[aspen]

From well-respected KFDM Met Greg Bostwick:

“The National Hurricane Center this afternoon named the tiny cluster of thunderstorms near Savannah, Georgia Tropical Storm Danny. I strongly disagree with the upgrade as surface pressures are quite high and no surface weather reports support sustained winds of tropical storm force.

It should be noted that there appears to be an increasing tendency by NHC to name storms when in previous years they would have not been classified. In fact, before weather satellites in the early 1960's, none of the current 4 storms would have received a name.”

Bill probably would’ve been caught. It was fairly strong for a June system and not far off the East Coast. Claudette definitely would’ve been noticed, but as for an upgrade…probably not.

Ana would’ve been missed without a doubt.

EDIT: what I mean by Ana likely being missed is that it was a very small TC that might not have been identified with 50s or 60s era technology or satellites. It was definitely a TC — the occasionally appearing naked swirl confirmed that — but would it have ever been spotted without the satellites of the later 1900s and present day?

[HurricaneFrances04]

So because we didn’t have satellites 60 years ago, the NHC shouldn’t use them to classify systems? I don’t get his point.

[EquusStorm]

Well with all due respect, a met who doesn't know how tropical cyclones are properly classified perhaps shouldn't be that well respected when they mention things regarding tropical cyclone classifications. Reconnaissance confirmed tropical storm force winds, which is more accurate than sparse surface data ever could be, and pressure is irrelevant given its being embedded in a large high pressure area. Andrew had a pressure of 1015mb at one point in its early stages for similar reasons, with winds well into tropical storm force.

As I've said before, pre 1960s storm counts should be thrown out, as that data is incredibly incomplete with many missed storms due to primitive technology and primitive standards. The only correct named storm standards imo are about 1990 and beyond, and even then we probably missed 1-2 a year in the high latitudes. That's like throwing out every tornado that is confirmed by TDS and not observation, because 'we would have missed those before dual-pol tech' - the new data/storm count isn't wrong, the primitive data from the pre-satellite era is. That's 'well back in the GOOD OLE DAYS' and not science.

Where did this soap box come from and why am I standing on it

[Hammy]

From well-respected KFDM Met Greg Bostwick:

“The National Hurricane Center this afternoon named the tiny cluster of thunderstorms near Savannah, Georgia Tropical Storm Danny. I strongly disagree with the upgrade as surface pressures are quite high and no surface weather reports support sustained winds of tropical storm force.

It should be noted that there appears to be an increasing tendency by NHC to name storms when in previous years they would have not been classified. In fact, before weather satellites in the early 1960's, none of the current 4 storms would have received a name.”

This is an awful take, one that should be beneath any professional meteorologist, and ignores both technological advancement and basic science, and also politicizing the storm by outright misrepresenting the situation to "prove" his take (a defined closed circulation with tropical storm winds is not "a tiny cluster of thunderstorms".)

Many storms that would've been missed prior to satellite is because we literally would not have known they exist, and pressures should not have any bearing whatsoever on classification as they are what establish the gradient, and surrounding pressures are quite high.

[ElectricStorm]

From well-respected KFDM Met Greg Bostwick:

“The National Hurricane Center this afternoon named the tiny cluster of thunderstorms near Savannah, Georgia Tropical Storm Danny. I strongly disagree with the upgrade as surface pressures are quite high and no surface weather reports support sustained winds of tropical storm force.

It should be noted that there appears to be an increasing tendency by NHC to name storms when in previous years they would have not been classified. In fact, before weather satellites in the early 1960's, none of the current 4 storms would have received a name.”

He's probably a good met, but I really can't stand the argument that these storms wouldn't have been named pre-satellite era. Like to me, while that period of time is interesting to analyze, there's absolutely no reason why anyone needs to bring up that argument when it comes to naming storms. If it's a TC, it's a TC no matter how short lived it is.

The only storm this year that was borderline was Claudette, but it still got named because it met the criteria.

I don't know about anyone else, but to me it's completely pointless, and even irresponsible, to compare the way we name storms now, then we did back then when we had hardly any of the technology we do now.

I respect all pro mets, but I highly dislike that argument... And it's not just him. Seems like every year someone makes a statement like this...

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

From well-respected KFDM Met Greg Bostwick:

“The National Hurricane Center this afternoon named the tiny cluster of thunderstorms near Savannah, Georgia Tropical Storm Danny. I strongly disagree with the upgrade as surface pressures are quite high and no surface weather reports support sustained winds of tropical storm force.

It should be noted that there appears to be an increasing tendency by NHC to name storms when in previous years they would have not been classified. In fact, before weather satellites in the early 1960's, none of the current 4 storms would have received a name.”

Not so well respected now by using this ridiculous argument.

Maybe we should go back to using ships and getting weather reports via ships and telegraphs like in the 1800s, if better technology is causing too many storms to be named.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd bet serious money that in 1960 a storm like Bill would have been upgraded. If a ship would have made contact it probably would have found a slightly stronger storm too then the nhc's estimates. I'd bet on it.

I also suspect that the nhc in 1960 would have upgraded Danny 24 hours earlier.

Claudette would have been upgraded off the east coast.